The only certain thing is nobody knows who will be elected until after the polls close and counting is certified.
VOTE. Everyone vote as if yours is the only one that matters, because it may be.
this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
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100% agree. Polls also don't really account for voter suppression tactics, or gerrymandering and other GOP fuckery, so absolutely vote because our democracy is literally at stake here.
Our future generations will be impacted by the outcome of this specific election.
I tend to wonder how these polls are conducted and who is answering them? Does anyone get polls via email or text? Are they still just calling people? I’m in my 40s and basically no one I know my age or younger answers numbers they don’t know anymore, and texts are ignored or flat out blocked because if you respond, they barrage you later, or at least that’s what we all assume.
So I’m not convinced polls have any bearing on what will happen anymore. VOTE!
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That is an uncomfortably close margin but it's good to see she's leading now at least.
It's only been like one day.
Yeah, and it's great to see Trump's standing reversed in that one day!
Better 2-pts up with Harris than 3-pts down with Biden. I like the direction those polls are swinging, even if I wouldn't put money on an outcome.
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Other polls I had seen just yesterday (likely collected before Biden dropping out was a reality) still had Trump with a 1% or more lead over Harris, so they're really all over the place and I wouldn't trust them for much, even up to and including election day. I'm not breathing a sigh of relief until victory is declared, and even then, I wouldn't be so sure.
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This is a swing and she's only beginning to build momentum. Let's hope things keep moving in the right direction.
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Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone's vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone's vote in Alaska.
Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.
And my vote in Oklahoma.....oh fuck it who are we kidding lol. Meaningless. I still do it though.
In a similar situation. Theres a zero percent chance trump doesn't win my state by at least 10 points. Still gonna vote though.
He'll see the popular vote count and it will annoy him. He was mad about it even when he won!
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Both of you should be asking how your vote could be made meaningful outside the scope of your current evaluation.
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Just saw Oklahoma has one of the lowest voter turn outs in the nation. With Tulsa and Oklahoma city it's more progressive than most people realize. We've just got to get out and vote and convince those around us to do the same. I know we have the numbers to win local elections.
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Lots of downticket races can be swung by a popular presidential nominee.
That said, Oklahoma's awash in O&G money and its state bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt. At some point, the sheer volume of gerrymandering, vote caging, and criminal disenfranchisement needs to be addressed. Simply shouting at people to "GO VOTE!" when they're getting handed broken machines and defective butterfly ballots and threatening robocalls isn't helping anyone, least of all the candidates they're hoping will win.
Nah, not meaningless. Any swing away from the degenerates will dispirit them.
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I know the top comments in these subs is always something along the lines of “fuck the polls! Go vote!” I agree but damn it is nice to get some positive news now and then!
Right? Enjoy something positive for a few seconds!
I agree, and also, go vote!
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As with all the discussions on national polls, it's necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don't have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don't reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don't have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I've looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - No data for Harris.
Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.
As of right now though? Here's the map:
Those polls don't account for anything that happened after the switch, like the impact of the record number of donations and news blitz. Need to wait for the next round before we really have any idea, and a few more in a few weeks to see where it levels off
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i'm going to need so much popcorn to watch GOP squirming and flailing desperate to find something to attack LOL
~~she's too OLD!!!~~
~~hunter's laptop!!!~~
~~buttery males!!!~~
LOL
eat shit, republicans
"She LAUGHS!"
"she hates dogs!!!"
LOL j/k. that's trump. trump hates dogs
Oh yeah, there's also "She never had kids!"
There will be quite a few Muslim allegations as well, for reasons. Which is funny, considering she has history with nearly everything besides Islam.
Oh yeah, probably. Has the GOP ever really sorted out their racist talking points about Indians (from India, not Native Americans)?
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From a Politico article, we can see how the Russians are starting to talk about Harris. The Republicans aren't usually far behind...
“Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade,” Andrei Sidorov, the dean of the global politics department at Moscow State University (a once highly respected institution) said Sunday evening on state television’s prime weekly talk show.
Edit: and then there's this: Unhinged Republican candidate calls Kamala Harris a “little wh*re” as GOP descends into misogyny
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Let it be a runaway snowball of a lead
This is good. Early, sure, but its numbers going in the right direction.
That's good news but still too close. We all need to continue informing the public that Donald is a dementia-ridden geriatric physically and mentally unfit for the office.
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Popularity or percentage of electoral college votes?
Only one of the two matter.
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1.) POLLS ARE GARBAGE.
2.) Corporate news cannot run a horse race without polls
3.) See #1
Polls mean nothing, the trends on polls aren’t guaranteed if people get complacent and don’t turn out. Voter apathy is the worst thing that can happen to Dems in this election
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