Polls don't matter, especially this far out.
Vote. Put pressure on politicians to do better. But more than anything. Vote.
If the polls say he's 100% going to win. Vote. If you're in a state that goes blue every time for the last 100 years. Vote. If you're in a state that goes red every time for the last 100 years. Vote.
Polls always matter, you just have to understand polls.
This is with third party options and show Biden up 2% which is probably close to margin of error.
It doesn't mean Biden has it in the bag, but it means his chances are improved.
But Biden risks the same dangers Hillary did in 2016.
People don't really want to vote for them, they just don't want trump. So there's a risk if Biden is polling too well (I don't think it will be an issue) people will stay home thinking they don't need to compromise their morals because trump will lose.
It's a dangerous game, and we wouldn't have to play it if we ran a candidate popular with Dem voters.
The margin of error for polls six months out from election, if memory serves, is about 14%.
I think people are phrasing this wrong: it’s not that the polls are worthless, it’s that it does not tell you what’s going to happen on Election Day in any real sense. They’re useful for watching trends and gauging short term changes and impact. They are useful for telling you how things are going. They do not tell you anything remotely useful about how things will be.
It's wild, but it raining on election day might have more an effect than anything that's happened recently.
I see people saying their vote doesn't matter when they're in a highly partisan district, which is most of them.
News flash: Even the dumbest politicians can look at arithmetic. If they see their margins shrinking, they'll adjust. Or go full retard and double-down. And then get a worse beating.
Also local elections can be decided by one vote and can be just as important.
Typically more important for the average citizen. Federal changes may effect you in years, decades or never. Whereas your local politicians impact your day to day life.
Convicted felon Donald Trump?
Convicted felon Donald Trump.
I’m sorry, how many counts was it? 3? No. 4? No….somebody help me out here.
The mean number of US presidential felonies is .75.
Trump is truly an extraordinary president, since he's single handedly raised that number from zero to where it is today, and he's not even done yet.
Truly providing an excellent education in why statistical means are sometimes very misleading.
Can't wait to see someone seriously say, "what's the big deal if he's a felon? I heard that almost three quarters of presidents commit a felony."
Convicted felon and adjudicated rapist Donald Trump.
Twice impeached, quadruple indicted, convicted felon and adjudicated rapist, Donald Trump!
Nice to hear it, but yeah FUCKING VOTE!!!
Why the fuck is Trump even able to run? He's literally a fucking criminal, and was impeached. I dont understand how our political system or even judicial systems work at this point.
Disclaimer: Fuck Trump.
That being said, convicted "criminals" should still be able to run for any public office in my opinion. A tyrant CAN capture the judiciary and imprison their political opponents. This is in fact what happened in the Indian elections right now. This is in fact what happened in the US elections in the early 1900s, where a socialist candidate ran for President from prison. What was his crime? Striking when the State had deemed it illegal to do so.
Funny how 8 years ago, people kept saying "don't worry about Trump, there are checks and balances in place". None of that talk this time around!
Because there's now an infrastructure built up around him with plans on how to override those checks and balances (Project 2025).
Thought leaders have been raising this issue for years. Among those calling for barring criminals from running for office: some guy named Donald Trump.
There are no hard requirements for being president beyond those listed in the Constitution:
That's it. The framers of the Constitution presumably felt being a convicted felon would be enough for an electorate (or the electoral college, at least) to simply not vote for that person.
I find it exceedingly hard to believe that a conservative will not vote for Trump when it really comes down to the day. I think there are plenty that will say they won't all the way up to that point though.
There are plenty of Conservatives who aren't voting for Trump, they just get drowned out by the extremely loud cultists. Just look up Republicans against Trump.
Wow, it's almost like putting the entire weight of the RNC behind a convicted felon in a rematch against the guy he already lost to once in order to control the voting power of the cult that formed around him is, dare I say it, a bad political move? Like, such a bad political move that even somebody who knows absolutely nothing about politics should have been able to see this one coming?
Imagine how detached from reality you need to be to genuinely believe that getting slapped with a felony conviction will somehow help your campaign.
Imagine how detached from reality you need to be
I agree with you. But I just want to point out that we are far, far past the "imagine if" stage. At this point in time, it is "witness in reality" how detached from reality Trump supporters are.
"Imagine if" sounds dismissive and complacent. These people are an actual threat to everyone, including themselves.
If you aren't angry about the shit these fucks are pulling, then get angry; if you are already angry, get angrier. Then go out and vote against them.
I wouldn't exactly claim 2% polling gains as a big victory, tbh.
I check fivethirtyeight and 270towin pretty often and it hasn't changed much in the last 6 months. Still dystopian.
Guess who doesn't read the news but shows up to vote anyways?
Vote!
Yup, this is why we follow it over time.
It went from pro Biden, to waffling back and forth, to pro Trump, to waffling back and forth, and now, here we are!
Let's check the usual suspects:
Arizona: Tie, Biden+2, Trump+2-+4 Waffling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: No useful polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia: Trump +5/+6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania: Biden +1/+2 to Trump +2 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Tie to Trump+1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Biden +2/+7 to Trump +1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Tie, Biden+2, Trump +3/+5 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/
What this looks like mapped out:
This actually is an improvement for Biden who had been losing several of these.
If Trump takes either PA or MI, it's game over. He only needs one of them to win.
After that, Trump needs any 2 of the remaining 4 states to win and Biden needs 3/4.
If Biden takes Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Trump takes Arizona, that means it will all come down to New Mexico and we have ZERO useful polling out of New Mexico, absolutely none.
Every bit of news around (which old fuck is in the lead) is complete horseshit. Real polls can no longer be done. There's an insane self selection bias and beyond that there's an inherent participation bias.
Turns out that Moderate heavy states like Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan don't want to vote for a felon that threatens to jail his enemies.
This is a big deal. I'm extremely excited to get a look into these data. This would be an INCREDIBLE thing considering that Biden has been lagging Trump in the polls for over 450 days.
And whoever tells you polls don't matter has their head up their ass. Polls do matter, a lot, especially this far out. People aren't a monolith. People do change their minds and perspectives.
Apparent viability matters. Even a 2-5% hit in polling to Trump can take him from the range of viable to non-viable.
And yes, polling is flawed. In 2016 and 2020, the polling massively underestimated support for Trump. We need to keep this in mind when we look at these numbers,.
Keeping in mind that the trajectory of Bidens polling was into the carpet, pretty much since the inauguration.
If Biden can shift this towards an upward trend, he's suddenly back in the game. Thats a sea change. Thats huge.
Polls matter, until the next poll comes out. The only poll with any lasting effect is in November.
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