The number that are worth watching can be counted on one hand.
I'm not sure what you take issue with but thats your business.
I'm checking silver bullets, Nate silvers blog.
538 isn't what it used to be. It had Biden winning when he was polling At 38%. You shouldn't rely on it.
He campaign has absolutely been a bummer and she's not winning this election at the moment. Lemmy has repeatedly gaslit itself into a delusional state around what is happening in reality and it seems to be happening again in regards to Kamala Harris performance. Gaslighting yourself at your own peril.
Lemmy is an echo chamber with mods who editorially filter the views they want to see. If you are relying on it for confirmation of your world view, you are in for a deep and upsetting shock. The perfect example of this was Biden, his performance, and his ability to win. Another even more recent example of this was Walzs performance in the debate (the question of if he won).
On polling, where we can actually have a conversation. Within the MOE is losing for a democratic candidate. Harris needs overwhelming numbers to account for existing and upcoming structural issues to the election. She doesn't have those, and her trajectory isn't up (like it was drying and immediately after the convention). It's going down, and that's terrible if you want to keep Trump out of office. It's because she's making the classic mistake Democrats always seem to make which is to start on the left but shift to the center.
Harris topped out in growing her support about 2 weeks after the convention and with every step to the right, she backslides further. If she continues the strategy she employed from the convention to now, she will 💯 lose this election.
The worms gotta eat.
I think something worth noting about older games too is that they didn't try and deal with many of their limitations head on. In fact many actually took advantage of their limitations to give the feeling of doing more than they actually were. For example, pixel perfect verus crt. Many 8 bit and 16 bit games were designed specifically for televisions and monitors that would create the effect of having more complexity than they were actually capable of. Other things like clever layout designs in games to limit draw distance, or bringing that in as a functional aspect of the game.
The technical limitations seem largely resolved by current technology, where previously things were made to look and feel better than the hardware allowed through clever planning and engineering.
Exactly. The Supreme Court retroactively elevated the office of presidency to "something more", with the caveat that at the end of the day, they get to decide what qualifies as crime or not.
I wouldn't say that the office has become a kingship, but I don't know what else to call a leader unbound by law.
It's absolutely horse shit and we have no reason to accept it as a ruling.
Don't forget the 26 billion we gave them before that, and the several billion a year weve been giving them for decades before that.
One of the most important decisions you face as a forecaster is simply when to publish a statistical model for public consumption. If you’re just running a model for your personal edification — or to make bets with — the threshold may actually be lower. If you’re evaluating the impact of a player injury on an NFL or NBA game that you’re considering betting on, for instance, then you might only get a couple of minutes before some reasonably rational assessment of the impact has already been priced into prevailing betting lines. Under these circumstances, a good first-pass estimate can go a long way. By the time you dot all the ‘i’s and cross all the ‘t’s to incorporate the impact of the injury into a formal model, it may be too late.
When you issue a statistical forecast publicly, though, I think the responsibility is slightly greater. In some cases, probabilistic forecasts can be confusing to people. And in other circumstances, people can take statistical models too seriously and treat them as oracular when in fact all models rely on the researcher’s assumptions. Let’s not get too carried away with this — some assumptions are better than others, which is why some models are better than others. (And putting a model behind a paywall is a pretty useful trick for self-selecting a more knowledgeable reader base.) But there are times when a subjective estimate may be better, especially in unforeseen circumstances that your model wasn’t really designed to handle.
For instance, when Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race last Sunday, I suppose we could have just done a hot swap and immediately replaced him with Kamala Harris — pollsters have periodically tested the Harris vs. Trump matchup, especially since Biden’s disastrous debate on June 27. But I think this would have misinformed even our smart, self-selected group of Silver Bulletin readers more than it informed them. The polls were already in flux, given Biden’s mounting crisis on top of the assassination attempt against Trump on top of the Republican convention, which is typically a period when polls can produce short-lived bounces. And Harris’s candidacy was still hypothetical, although she was clearly prepared, working behind the scenes to become the Democrats’ presumptive nominee within 24-48 hours.
Olive oil, garlic, nutmeg, Parmesan, mottz and basil.
I think I went half a cycle too long in the oven. I'm not sure the frequency of rotation but I want to get a timer in the pizza kitchen.
Hey all,
I modified my Qstove to take a pizza steel instead of engineered stone and am sharing the results here.
Key figure:
view more: next ›
The only acceptable answer: