this post was submitted on 21 May 2025
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Ukraine

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[–] [email protected] 20 points 3 days ago (2 children)

20.000... That's the kill count for three weeks maybe, probably less.

Shows how far down with resources that shithole is.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 days ago (3 children)

Technically, these ~1000 per day in the statistics of "enemy losses" contain killed and wounded, were it's assumed that the share of killed is about 1/3.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

I believe it's been documented that russias dead/wounded ratio has been as bad as 1:1 at times, and is typically around 1:2, due to bad access to battlefield care (tourniquets etc.), little training, and bad access to casevac. We've seen plenty of russians off themselves once they're hit instead of waiting for help that never arrives.

Even if it is 1:3, I believe it's common to assume that about 1/3 wounded are unable to return to combat. In that case, the ratio of "can't return to combat"/"can return to combat" is about 1:1. Which means that out of the β‰ˆ1000 casualties russia is taking per day, at most β‰ˆ500 are able to return to the front.

This also means that out of the β‰ˆ 1 000 000 casualties russia has taken, it's reasonable to assume that β‰ˆ 250 000 are killed, and β‰ˆ 250 000 are crippled. And given the data we have, these are likely lower estimates.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago

Thank you for your elaboration on the numbers.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Nah, the Russians are very happy to send out the cripple core.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 hours ago

While that's true, everybody who is not killed or unfit for service will show up in the daily statistics until they are either dead, unfit for service, captured or the war is over. That's why β€” returning to the topic of how long 20 000 naturalized migrants forcefully conscripted will let the meat grinder runing β€” they will last longer than 3 weeks.

[–] Tar_alcaran 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

The percentage of casualties that go back into active service depends not only on medical skill, support systems and casevac, but also very strongly on how desperate a country is.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 days ago

You're not wrong