doo

joined 2 years ago
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[–] doo 11 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

Good thing this is not true.

You're probably referring to ruzzia having three times more people than Ukraine. There are several factors why this is not as important as it might seem.

First is that ruzzia is attacking and the attacking side usually sustains 1:3 loss ratio. Second is that their approach was always to disregard their own, so the ratio is at least 1:5, likely even worse. And third, is that despite they have 140 million people, after you deduct women, children, old and sick, and ruzzian tooth to tail ratio of 1:1, you end up with the maximum army of 5 million.

And they already lost 20%. And some of those 20% were actually trained. And men that are fit for army are also for for work.

Which all basically means that if the sanctions pressure is kept, if Ukraine has enough ammunition (and they claim 30% is already made domestically) and as long as Ukraine keeps the loss ratio in its favour, ruzzia will simply implode.

Somebody calculated that at the current "advance" speed, ruzzia will need 140 years to occupy Ukraine. If Ukraine keeps doing what it's doing, it needs maybe two.

It's not going to be nice two years, but with a little support, Ukraine is winning and will win.

[–] doo 16 points 1 day ago

The war is a tragedy for Ukraine, but every dead or wounded invader is one step closer to victory. Or a million steps in this case.

[–] doo 23 points 1 day ago (1 children)

1'000'000 Слава Україні.

[–] doo 13 points 2 days ago

In a way this is the whole point of this war. Ukraine, where people are ready to protest and fight for the common good, Vs ruzzia, where it's advised to marry a soldier to get the widow's benefits.

[–] doo 18 points 2 days ago (1 children)

It's the reason why some russians (not that many) have left the country and some (very few) tried protesting.

After three years of war, though, those joining the army, those working in factories producing shahed drones or other weapons, those supporting the army indirectly, they actually support the war.

Yes, it's all the result of propaganda, but they do believe the official line, they do think that they're trying to liberate.

So while it's illegal to be against war there, very few are breaking that even in their heads. And when we hear "x% of ruzzians want peace", it only means that they want the victory rather sooner, because their life is somewhat uncomfortable.

[–] doo 26 points 2 days ago

Aaaand. See you tomorrow :)

[–] doo 2 points 2 days ago

Let's say it's an optimistic estimate based on a typical 1:4 rate for an attacking military that cares about their soldiers.

[–] doo 9 points 3 days ago (1 children)

1 (well, maybe two)

[–] doo 6 points 4 days ago (1 children)
[–] doo 1 points 4 days ago

Nope. 3 as in three or one one one.

[–] doo 9 points 4 days ago

I would say that we've just discovered that our approach to test knowledge and critical thinking was secondary to the means we used.

Apparently, essay writing doesn't require either of those.

Which means we have to think how we teach kids. They will and should use helper tools, but just like we teach multiplication table before allowing calculators, well have to establish what students have to learn before they can use the LLMs in their studying.

[–] doo 5 points 5 days ago

Згоден :)

 

By degrading a near-peer adversary’s military capability, gaining unprecedented battlefield intelligence, and accelerating the testing and development of advanced weapons systems, the U.S. is realizing a Return on Strategic Investment (ROSI) of 321% to 797%

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sanctions work (open.substack.com)
submitted 9 months ago by doo to c/[email protected]
 

2.5 years to halve the reserves, the spend cannot be linear and I also don't think they need to get to zero to have a collapse.

... The economy is being funded by the cash reserves, which increases inflation, which leads to another round of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which makes it harder to borrow money, which is necessary for economic growth. Eventually, the cash reserves will run out. It took 2.5 years to deplete half the Russian reserves. Russia withdrew $37 billion to cover deficits in December 2022. It withdrew $20 billion to cover deficits in December 2023. It only has $54 billion left.

136
submitted 10 months ago by doo to c/[email protected]
 

If anything, russia is showing clear signs of sunk-cost fallacy

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

 

In today's #vatniksoup I'll talk about Russian Nazis and introduce Russian neo-Nazi movements and paramilitary groups like Rusich and PMC Wagner. They're best-known for being funded by the Kremlin and being responsible for the "denazification" in Ukraine.

 

So basically, we're waiting for a (hopefully very soon) systemic collapse of moscovite army since they bet both their attack and defence on artillery

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