doo

joined 1 year ago
MODERATOR OF
[–] doo 6 points 1 week ago

Indeed, the point is that despite a "small" percentage, it's not 50 times, nor 40 times, but at best 0.5 times longer. Which is still too much damage to Ukraine, but we still can win.

[–] doo 5 points 1 week ago (2 children)

While this might sound like ruzzia can continue like this 50 times longer, the reality is quite different. Let's have a look. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/unemployment-rate

Their unemployment rate hit the historic low in September 2023. Yes, they still have 1.8 million unemployed, but since the number stayed the same while there's a demand for human force, those are actually likely unemployable ones.

Before the war they had roughly double of that amount of unemployed ones.

So looks like

  1. They already employed everybody they could
  2. They already sent to war (and lost) everyone who wasn't bringing much value

Add to that about quarter a million (assuming only 25% are men of that age) of who left (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)

So yeah, they only lost 2% of potential soldiers, but it appears that already since a year ago they lost all "spare" men and every single one they scrape now is a) likely not fit for military b) was involved in military economy

Yes, they can continue like this for a while, but the cost of each new soldier will be bigger and bigger, the quality and equipment lower and lower. And the system will snap way before all of them are "expended". Ukraine says summer next year ( https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39020 ) given all this I tend to believe that forecast.

[–] doo 8 points 1 week ago
[–] doo 2 points 1 month ago

I'm not saying they have easy choices. Or good choices. But they do choose. We all do. I'd even say life is all about making small, imperfect choices.

[–] doo 20 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Around 100 have joined non-Russian institutes in order to continue their physics research work with Europe’s particle-physics laboratory.

Not exactly "completely out of your control", I'd say.

[–] doo 4 points 2 months ago

In the other hand, if digging good and settling oil to India were enough, they would not need to raid their savings this hard.

So maybe it's not that critical to demotivate India from Russian oil...

[–] doo 16 points 2 months ago

My impression is that it's exactly what Ukraine is doing by attacking oil refineries and reserves - make russia decide wether to sell or use themselves for the war.

58
sanctions work (open.substack.com)
submitted 2 months ago by doo to c/[email protected]
 

2.5 years to halve the reserves, the spend cannot be linear and I also don't think they need to get to zero to have a collapse.

... The economy is being funded by the cash reserves, which increases inflation, which leads to another round of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which makes it harder to borrow money, which is necessary for economic growth. Eventually, the cash reserves will run out. It took 2.5 years to deplete half the Russian reserves. Russia withdrew $37 billion to cover deficits in December 2022. It withdrew $20 billion to cover deficits in December 2023. It only has $54 billion left.

[–] doo 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I do hope that the industry taking it will just slightly delay devaluation and boom! more inflation.

[–] doo 3 points 2 months ago

You mean they will go for printer go brr?

Yes, please!

[–] doo 28 points 2 months ago (7 children)

They also held 293.189 tonnes of unallocated gold, compared with 298.84 tonnes on August 1, 303.579 tonnes on July 1 and 329.795 tonnes on June 1.

So they sold almost 40 tonnes of gold in 4 months? I approve that trend.

[–] doo 7 points 2 months ago (7 children)

It's good that they can just print more rubels to fill the gap! /S

[–] doo 5 points 2 months ago

The facts are:

  • russia spent a lot of effort trying to ban it
  • eventually they "convinced" durov to cooperate to fight terrorism and removed the ban
  • in russia fighting terrorism is applied to anything

Yes, I don't have evidence that the messages are accessed, only that the access is given and that all of that is happening in a country with a blatant disregard to law from the government.

136
submitted 3 months ago by doo to c/[email protected]
 

If anything, russia is showing clear signs of sunk-cost fallacy

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

 

In today's #vatniksoup I'll talk about Russian Nazis and introduce Russian neo-Nazi movements and paramilitary groups like Rusich and PMC Wagner. They're best-known for being funded by the Kremlin and being responsible for the "denazification" in Ukraine.

 

So basically, we're waiting for a (hopefully very soon) systemic collapse of moscovite army since they bet both their attack and defence on artillery

18
Russia's losses 30.06.2023 (s3.amazonaws.com)
submitted 1 year ago by doo to c/ukraine
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