this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2025
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Summary

Germany warns that Russia is rearming faster than expected, replacing war losses and stockpiling tanks, missiles, and drones.

Putin has redirected Russia’s economy to fuel its military, aided by supplies from Iran and North Korea.

While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.

On the Ukraine front, Russian forces are advancing in south Donetsk, nearing strategic town Pokrovsk, a key supply hub and coal mining center.

Analysts suggest Putin aims to seize land before potential peace talks.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 minutes ago

2 surgical nukes and we can melt putin back into the puddle of excrement he really is.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

surprise surprise! just after his little orange butt plug was sworn in too!

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 hours ago

Hold on! The orange buttplug is about to do something stupid!...

[–] [email protected] 42 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago) (3 children)

Simultaneously so weak and incompetent that they can't take a village of 80 year olds but so scary that they'll go to war with like a fifth of the planet.

How does the Umberto Eco thing go again?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago) (2 children)

While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.

This is also a very telling sentence.

“There’s not evidence this is even on their minds or that they would ever attempt such a monumentally stupid move, buuut…just use your 🌈 imagination 💫”

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

The Telegraph loves this. " MAY OCCUR!!" = It has not been proven mathematically impossible.

While there's no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.

Have they read the news within the last 3 years?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago

I mean Russia is doing quite poorly. Even if the Ukrainian Army poofs out of existence today and gives Russian a leisurely stroll to the capital its still kind of a pyrrhic victory. They have done well to go in a war economy and have learned from their mistakes, but they are still punching under their expected weight.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 6 hours ago

Simultaneously so weak and incompetent that they can’t take a village of 80 year olds

If they're that weak, why hasn't Ukraine beaten them out yet?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (4 children)

Russia has faced a tiny fraction of NATO's combined military strength and has failed to produce any meaningful results. Attacking NATO would be suicidal

[–] [email protected] 19 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Yeahhhh, but what if someone in charge of the US sides with them instead of against them.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

they must have not got the memo.

just to catch everyone up to speed.

Screenshot_20250120-195222_Firefox

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 hours ago

Something something mutually assured destruction?

[–] [email protected] -2 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

If you think other allies would unite as a matter of course, you haven't been paying attention.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

I've been at this long enough to know when I see an incredibly pessimistic take.

People play patheticly when it's only money involved, see how things change when shit gets real.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

You think entering a war is an easy clear cut decision? There's nothing in article 5 that compels any ally to join a counterattack. If the US supports Russia and doesn't do anything, it becomes a much harder sell to enter a war.

[–] [email protected] 129 points 22 hours ago (2 children)

They're betting on their fascist puppet in the US tearing apart NATO, so they don't have to worry about such things when they start eyeing the Baltic states.

[–] [email protected] 40 points 20 hours ago (3 children)

And what, lose another 3 years and a third of the country's young to losing the fight for Estonia? Russia is absolutely incapable of successfully invading anything. They couldn't even stay in Syria when a bunch of untrained militia said they might show up later. Russia is weak.

[–] [email protected] 44 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

As long as there is an war going on for the rest of Putin's life, I don't think he cares about the any of those problems.

All he cares about is that if there isn't a war going on, Russians will start to look at what their own government does.

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[–] [email protected] 65 points 21 hours ago (5 children)

I'm sorry, but even with the U.S. out of NATO, Russia would get their ass kicked. Putin must know that.

[–] [email protected] 48 points 21 hours ago (6 children)

All depends on if NATO as a whole isn't just a bluff. Are the UK, Germany and France, the three remaining major economies after the US leaves, actually going to go to war with Russia over Lithuania (no offense at all toward Lithuanians), for example? That's what he's testing, and that's why he wants the US out.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

NATO could crumble and Germany and France would still come to Lithuania's aid, they're an EU member. With NATO gone UK might technically not be on the hook any more but they'd still get into the fray, despite their faults and their insistence that they're not they're still Europeans.

The actually difficult part would be stopping Poland from bee-lining for Moscow, nukes be damned. They don't spend 4.7% of GDP because they plan on sitting back.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 17 hours ago

As my GM once said, right before I TPK’d my whole group: “You can certainly try.”

[–] [email protected] 23 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

It takes Russia weeks/months to take a tiny village at the cost of thousands of soldiers. They can't attack NATO.

I mean they can... but it would go as expected.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Until the US starts giving them munitions because we have to fight the deep state/globalists that infect Europe.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 20 hours ago

They're all Hamas.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 19 hours ago

lmao, russians can stockpile rocks and have their propaganda call it best weapon ever.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

An armchair analyst take here but I think they are gearing up to finally try to take Pokrovsk in the spring.

Folks at lemmy.ml were shouting from the rafters most of last year: Invading Kursk was a mistake! Russia will drive them back, and Pokrovsk will fall any day now! But like Avdiivka, I expect it to be a siege and for it to take a while. If they can take it early enough this year, Russia will again be able to conquer massive swaths of farmland because that's really the only thing the "throw bodies at the problem" strategy is very effective at. If Ukraine holds out until the late fall, Russia will again be stalled for months, so the pace of their entire army will be "1 regional hub per year", which I'm not sure is sustainable for Russia's economy and society.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 17 hours ago (1 children)

Honestly the pace of Russian advancement has been slowing down which is understandable because their losses are not sustainable. Their only hope for true victory is if Ukrainian losses are even less sustainable.

This is possible, especially if Germany and the US, the 2 wealthiest partners, cut off or scale back aid. But at the moment Ukraine seems slightly ahead of the attrition game and the US just INCREASED sanctions.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago) (1 children)

Perun (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY) just released a video yesterday that went over Ukraine's war material situation.

TLDW: Ukrainian military equipment is for the most part qualitatively better than it was at the start of the war but not quantitatively.

Russia on the other hand is qualitatively worse, is running out of reserve war equipment (Soviet stockpiles), and is expected to deplete some of categories of equipment sometime in 2024 (tank stockpile source: Covert Cabal https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K8CcuVCDEUw).

Edit: some spelling mistakes.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 hours ago

That's about what I thought. Ukraine has gotten 40 trucks here, 12 tanks there. Better than the old Soviet stuff Russia is using, but not enough to decisively turn the tables.

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