this post was submitted on 25 Aug 2024
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politics

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[–] [email protected] 153 points 4 months ago (13 children)

As we know from Gore and Clinton, national numbers mean jack shit. Vote!

[–] [email protected] 41 points 4 months ago

Vote and volunteer to give rides to those that wouldn't be able to vote without it. (if you can)

[–] [email protected] 12 points 4 months ago

Exactly. Don't get complacent! Every vote is needed and matters.

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[–] [email protected] 136 points 4 months ago (4 children)

Don’t believe the naysayers. No matter which state you are in, your vote is important. Extreme Conservatives have been taking over school boards and imposing their agenda on kids.

Offices like Sheriff, Coroner, Secretary of State, Lt Governor, State Representatives, City and County Councils etc. are all important.

Every Vote Counts!!!!!

[–] [email protected] 28 points 4 months ago

And every cunt votes, so do it too!

[–] [email protected] 27 points 4 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago

Thank you for making me laugh today.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago (3 children)

Definitely agree with this. As someone from Oregon where my vote doesn't really matter on the national elections I make sure to vote still to influence local elections. Only problem with those is that finding info on the candidates can be hard or sometimes there is only one candidate for a position.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Coroner??? As in the person who notes that people are dead??? That's an elected position? What? Why? How can that even possibly be political? "This person has gone red but they should have gone blue instead. Make them get back up and start walking around until they do dying right!"; "Cause of death: Being a gorram !"; "You're not allowed to die, we've had too many deaths this week and I won't get elected again if you do. Stop pretending to be cold and stiff!". What?

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 months ago

The coroner could rule on whether a death is suspicious or not. Like if a brown person dies in custody, the coroner may or may not chock it up to "natural causes" depending on their political leanings.

This is just wild conjecture on my part -- I don't think I get to vote for coroner locally -- but I could definitely see that happening.

[–] [email protected] 115 points 4 months ago (5 children)

As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don't have national elections.

But let's see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we'll need a re-run in a week or two. I'm also adding some states people have been talking about.

Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.

Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.

Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.

The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris' race to lose there.

Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let's plot it on the map:

Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She's 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.

Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he's at 265. NC + AZ he's at 262.

This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago

Thanks a lot for the detailed breakdown.

[–] gravitas_deficiency 4 points 4 months ago

Excellent summarization. 🍻

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[–] [email protected] 71 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Polls. Don't. Matter. Fucking. Vote.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

Polls are a useful tool for gauging popular opinion at a given moment, and can help politicians make rational judgements during a campaign.

Biden wouldn't have dropped out if people ignored polling.

[–] [email protected] 66 points 4 months ago (23 children)

Everyone here is right about this still being neck and neck.

That said, let’s also take 2 seconds to acknowledge that Harris has kind of been killing it over the last 3-4 weeks. She took over that campaign apparatus and moved with urgency, precision, and polish. Moreover, she’s not taking her opponent’s bate.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 4 months ago

Harris has been absolutely stellar, I thought she was OK before, but she has clearly exceeded my expectations.

PS: I think that last word should probably be "bait" not "bate".

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[–] [email protected] 57 points 4 months ago

Remember to still vote. Even if it's accurate, the GoP is trying to prep as many cheats as possible so they can kick it to the supreme court. You need overwhelming numbers - Enough that even just 3 of the Republican Supreme Court members say the results are valid out of fear of retaliation

[–] CaptDust 47 points 4 months ago (1 children)

The fake news polling is rigged - Vote!

[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago

Yep, they are trying to lull us.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (3 children)

doesn’t matter. Some dipshit from Pennsylvania is more important than 100 Californians.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 4 months ago

Down ballot candidates still matter. There are several tossup districts in CA for congressional seats. Vote like hell!!!!!

[–] [email protected] 13 points 4 months ago

More than 40 million Californians, you mean. Our vote effectively means nothing nationally.

[–] spidermanchild 5 points 4 months ago (3 children)

Pennsylvania is a large state, a vote there is barely worth more than a vote in California.

https://medium.com/practical-coding/whats-my-vote-worth-3ca2585b5d51

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[–] andrew_bidlaw 13 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Smiling Trump is so weird lmao.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

It's a whole new thing for him.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago

I think those pictures of him with his eyes sqinting and his mouth stretched out like a frog were supposed to be a smile, but I always registered it as "self-satisfaction" rather than "joyfullness" which I'm convinced he's wholly incapable of.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 4 months ago (2 children)

3% of Democrats support Trump?
WTF? Who? How?

[–] [email protected] 20 points 4 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago

TIL how to shorten RFK down to two emojis.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago

Usually people that are either lying about being Democrats, or people very much stuck on a single issue and have decided that "The establishment" is wrong (yet, still, identifying as a Democrat).

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 months ago

I would not feel comfortable we were safe from the disaster of a second Trump term even if Harris was up by 70 points!

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago (1 children)

the polls lie; their methodology is not good enough to actually get the temp of thjngs. Drag everyone you know to the polls.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Even if the polls were accurate something as simple as rain on election day can throw them off.

Go fucking vote

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