Fun fact: The Soviets stopped recognizing the sovereignty of Poland and invaded the area of it closest to them 16 days after the Nazis invaded Poland in 1939.
I'm guessing Poland remembers that and is ready this time.
this post was submitted on 25 Apr 2024
165 points (93.7% liked)
World News
39522 readers
2777 users here now
A community for discussing events around the World
Rules:
-
Rule 1: posts have the following requirements:
- Post news articles only
- Video links are NOT articles and will be removed.
- Title must match the article headline
- Not United States Internal News
- Recent (Past 30 Days)
- Screenshots/links to other social media sites (Twitter/X/Facebook/Youtube/reddit, etc.) are explicitly forbidden, as are link shorteners.
-
Rule 2: Do not copy the entire article into your post. The key points in 1-2 paragraphs is allowed (even encouraged!), but large segments of articles posted in the body will result in the post being removed. If you have to stop and think "Is this fair use?", it probably isn't. Archive links, especially the ones created on link submission, are absolutely allowed but those that avoid paywalls are not.
-
Rule 3: Opinions articles, or Articles based on misinformation/propaganda may be removed. Sources that have a Low or Very Low factual reporting rating or MBFC Credibility Rating may be removed.
-
Rule 4: Posts or comments that are homophobic, transphobic, racist, sexist, anti-religious, or ableist will be removed. “Ironic” prejudice is just prejudiced.
-
Posts and comments must abide by the lemmy.world terms of service UPDATED AS OF 10/19
-
Rule 5: Keep it civil. It's OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It's NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
-
Rule 6: Memes, spam, other low effort posting, reposts, misinformation, advocating violence, off-topic, trolling, offensive, regarding the moderators or meta in content may be removed at any time.
-
Rule 7: We didn't USED to need a rule about how many posts one could make in a day, then someone posted NINETEEN articles in a single day. Not comments, FULL ARTICLES. If you're posting more than say, 10 or so, consider going outside and touching grass. We reserve the right to limit over-posting so a single user does not dominate the front page.
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
Lemmy World Partners
News [email protected]
Politics [email protected]
World Politics [email protected]
Recommendations
For Firefox users, there is media bias / propaganda / fact check plugin.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/media-bias-fact-check/
- Consider including the article’s mediabiasfactcheck.com/ link
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
And now Poland’s only ally in the EU parliament is sucking Putin’s dick. I hope they learned a lesson, if they want to be protected by EU law (Article 42.7 is the European Union's mutual assistance clause, similar to NATO article 5) maybe they should also uphold it within their own nation and don’t conspire against the EU with a crook
The previous far-right PiS government’s only ally, a bond forged from Poland and Hungary standing united against the threat of atheism, gender ideology and forensic accounting from the decadent West. The new, centrist government would classify France and Germany as closer allies than Hungary.
a bond forged from Poland and Hungary standing united against the threat of atheism, gender ideology and forensic accounting from the decadent West.
Lol, amazingly worded.
There is a reason Poland's defense spending has ballooned to over 4% of GDP. By comparison the US spends a little over 3% of its GDP on its military and most EU countries are closer to 2%.
They remember how the bottom of the Kremlin's boot tastes, just like the Baltics.
They remember the bottom of a lot of peoples boots tbh.
Yes, the Nazis and Russians had an agreement, the Ribbentrop Pact.
.
A war between Russia and NATO would result in the textbook definition of a pyrhhic victory. Everyone should be afraid of that. There will be no winners in nuclear combat.
There is a great novel written in 1959 called Alas, Babylon by an author named Pat Frank about the survivors of a nuclear war between the US and the USSR in a small Florida town. The novel ends this way:
"We won it. We really clobbered 'em!" Hart's eyes lowered and his arms drooped. He said, "Not that it matters."
That book was wild. Read it in high school as part of a class that also covered the classics of the era; On the Beach, Fail Safe etc. It stuck with me with its description of blindness from the blast and the metaphor for confusion.
That last line has haunted me for decades.
Great quote! That's one of my absolute favorite books. I recommend it to people all the time.
If you liked Alas, Babylon, I'd strongly recommend On The Beach by Nevil Shute.
I know On The Beach well! The movie is good too. There's also a decent BBC radio dramatization:
And that's the whole point of MAD. It doesn't matter if you can "win". You've just managed to kill a few million more than the other side, everyone loses anyway so there's no point in starting such a conflict.
Until someone is too crazy or too stupid or both and thinks they can win.
Yeah exactly. Of course you can "win" but everyone will lose a great deal in the process.
MAD goes way beyond Pyrrhic victory, even. Pyrrhus of Epirus won a battle but lost the war as a result... and then recovered in time to wage different, unrelated ones with other people.
load more comments
(1 replies)
Well yeah, obviously they would lose. How could a country with an economy the size of Spain's take on almost every developed country simultaneously?
A Hail Mary play where "taking them down with me" is considered a win. Humans do that all the time and get awarded for it. Add a nuclear arsenal to it and, well...there's your answer.
load more comments
(10 replies)
Hypothetical: Would Spain have been able to take Ukraine?
Yeah they would simply have sent the legionarios, sort of like the gay bomb that Russia was memeing about.
By not going to full war but using hybrid warfare. Trump might get elected tomorrow, he will want to promote isolationism. Without the US, the EU is not that much stronger than Russia, in terms of military.
Just because you are richer, doesnt mean you can magically create tanks and ammunition by burning money. We can already see how hard it is to get artillery ammunition for Ukraine, even though EU is willing to overpay for it. These things take time(to build factories, train people, etc) and a major policy adjustment(ie cut funding on things in order to redirect it to defense spending).
Tomorrow Russia might "want to protect the rights of oppressed russians" in the estonian city Narva, that has 90% ethnic russian population. And they just march some "peacekeepers" in, like they did with Crimea. Would the rest of Europe go to war over an estonian city that has 90% ethnic russians(dont ask how it got so many russians, that is not kosher)?
What if the initial reaction is to actually go to war but then Russia goes "ok, my bad, i just wanted to help my people, i am out of Narva". Even in this "ideal" scenario, the original dilemma would have created some friction and fractures within EU. Hungary and Slovakia would be extremely reluctant in opposing Russia.
Keep repeating this, increasing friction in the EU, forcing EU to redirect funding to defense spending(thus degrading social services in EU) and eventually there will be enough resistance. Eventually enough german citizens would go "Why are we part of this bullshit? We could have been spending those billions to improve german lives, instead of this. It's not as if Russia will ever invade Germany". And thats Russia's winning scenario.
You can do a lot of things, if you dont care about your own population. North Korea is a great example of this. They are poor as fuck but they got nukes and missiles and a huge military. As long as your population thinks that this is necessary for the survival of the country, humans can tolerate a lot. And people in charge of authoritarian countries like this, think that people in other countries are soy cucks who will surrender the minute they cant get their daily avocado toast.
I'm seeing a lot of hypotheticals here that seem to ignore the reality that Russia is already bogged down in a war with a country that shares an enormous border with it and is effectively on its own diplomatically, not being a member of the EU or NATO. Your scenario implies that Russia will somehow wrap up this current war or be able to open up a second front, which is a stretch to put it mildly. I also struggle to imagine a scenario where Russia puts boots on Estonian ground and the other Baltics, Poland, and Finland don't step in to help. Czechia would also not be far behind.
As for your North Korea example, that's actually a very instructive one, because they have practically zero power projection aside from their hit-and-miss missile program.
Their psyops have also reached their apex, I think. Trump will not win and people are (slowly) becoming more wise to foreign influence online.
Without US and EU support Russia would wrap up the war in Ukraine quite quickly. That would be the death of Ukrainian morale.
And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle.
So wildly irrelevant as to be stupifying...
Logically speaking, A would likely cause B
Yes and illogically speaking, my grandmother might be a bicycle
Trump is ahead in polls. If the US doesnt provide help to Ukraine, Ukraine has 0% chance of winning. Europe does not have the military inventory or production to provide meaningful longterm help to Ukraine, only the US has that.
I also struggle to imagine a scenario where Russia puts boots on Estonian ground and the other Baltics, Poland, and Finland don’t step in to help. Czechia would also not be far behind.
If Ukraine is mostly out and US is mostly out, then these countries dont have enough to resist Russia. Poland might have enough, combined with Finland and Sweden, in 5+ years but not atm.
As for your North Korea example, that’s actually a very instructive one, because they have practically zero power projection aside from their hit-and-miss missile program.
Do not underestimate North Korea. Their missile program is legit. In fact, probably some of the ballistic missiles Iran launched were based on North Korean designs. And some were modern iranian designs that are a lot better. These things are expensive and hard to shoot down.
Their psyops have also reached their apex, I think. Trump will not win and people are (slowly) becoming more wise to foreign influence online.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-20-how-us-allies-are-working-iron-out-bugs-2024-04-24/
"Germany is waging a charm offensive inside the Republican Party. Japan is lining up its own Trump whisperer. Mexican government officials are talking to Camp Trump. And Australia is busy making laws to help Trump-proof its U.S. defense ties."
"Britain's Labour party, now in opposition but strong favorite to win elections expected by year-end, may have a steeper hill to climb to reach a good relationship with a Trump administration.
Labour's nominative foreign minister, David Lammy, once wrote in Time magazine, opens new tab that Trump was a "woman-hating, neo-Nazi sociopath". Lammy is now working to build ties with Republicans, said a Labour official."
load more comments
(1 replies)
Remember also that Brexit was a huge victory for Russia. With the EU no longer being able to count on GB in times of conflict, the chance of going to war over the Baltics gets even smaller. And even if NATO is a no-go, if GB would commit surely the US would support them. Brexit fucked it up for Europe and shows how far in advance Russia was planning this.
Russia is doing everything they can to destabilize the EU and get the far right in power in Europe. Even if those far right parties aren't in Putins pocket, they will still promote isolationist policies and destabilize Europe further. Plus all the far right politicians seem to primarily be in politics to get rich and divert public money away from things like defense and into the pockets of themselves and their sponsors.
The trouble is, we can see this happening and are powerless to do anything about it. Misinformation campaigns, populism, false promises, hate and racism seem to drive politics these days. Elections are held fair and in time, but the people are so blinded, they vote for the things that will ultimately prove to be very bad for them.
While Brexit definitely was a massive win for Russia, I disagree with the characterisation of it meaning the EU can no longer rely on the UK in times of conflict. The UK has been pretty consistent with wanting to increase security cooperation with the EU since then (sadly the only thing they do seem to want to cooperate on) and have done things like forge mutual defense treaties with Finland and Sweden when the decision to join NATO was made but not yet formalised.
load more comments
(1 replies)
No shit, they can't even win a war against a former client state. There's no way they'd have a chance with a single former near-peer, let alone a full military alliance with the sorry state of their forces.
load more comments
(2 replies)
Everyone fucking loses if Russia goes to war with NATO as it won't only involve Russia and NATO but other countries that have issues with NATO and those that would support Russia would get involved and now that I think about it so could the common wealth countries and other nations that are friendly if not allied to an the NATO members. I'd like to think even Putin and Russia itself isn't stupid enough to kickstart what would probably be WWII. In the words of Einstein "I don't know what weapons WWIII will be fought with but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones I.e humanity would kill itself back to the stone age after a war involving nuclear weapons.
A Russia - NATO war is extremely unlikely to become the type of global war that WWII was. There's not anywhere near enough strength among Russia's close allies, and China is extremely unlikely to go full out war with NATO. Their economy is too centered around being the manufacturing base for the rest of the developed world. They're more likely to grab a chunk of eastern Russia while Russia is unable to do anything about it.
Why do you think WWIII would be like II? WWIII will probably be nuclear and strength of allies counts for fuck all when M.A.D is in involved. I wouldn't doubt Russia would use nukes, I wouldn't doubt the NATO countries that do would retaliate and I wouldn't doubt the allies of Russia with nukes would strike back too.
The first "W" in "WWII" stands for "World". It was used to describe the wars because there were multiple countries on both sides that were roughly at parity with each other when it comes to military power. In a NATO vs Russia scenario, there aren't military peers on both sides. NATO has multiple members that could likely win a war against Russia on their own, and Russia has no one.
It wouldn't be a "World War". It would be Russia lashing out one final time before it ceased to exist.
Depending on politics and various other factors, I could see the Kremlin getting support from Iran, China, and N Korea.
Everyone would lose, but sometimes that has to happen to stop dictators from running over the world.
Russia would lose a war with the Teletubbies.
view more: next ›