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Russia would lose a war with NATO, Poland warns (www.politico.eu)

submitted 8 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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“It is not we, the West, who should fear a clash with Putin, but the other way around,” Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said.

A war between Vladimir Putin's Russia and NATO would end with Moscow's “inevitable defeat,” Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Thursday.

"It is not we, the West, who should fear a clash with Putin, but the other way around,” Sikorski said during a speech to the Sejm, the lower house of Poland's parliament. “It is worth reminding about this, not to increase the sense of threat in the Russians, because NATO is a defensive pact, but to show that an attack by Russia on any of the members of the Alliance would end in its [Russia's] inevitable defeat.”

Sikorski, who was laying out Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s vision for the new government's foreign policy, said Russia’s military and economic potential “pales in comparison to that of the West,” as NATO has three times as many military personnel, three times the aerial resources and four times as many ships as Russia.

…

Western allies and top military officials have become increasingly worried about a potential spillover of violence from Putin’s ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine — as the Russian leader continues to issue veiled nuclear threats toward the West and stashes atomic weapons in Belarus, which borders NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (2 children)

I'm seeing a lot of hypotheticals here that seem to ignore the reality that Russia is already bogged down in a war with a country that shares an enormous border with it and is effectively on its own diplomatically, not being a member of the EU or NATO. Your scenario implies that Russia will somehow wrap up this current war or be able to open up a second front, which is a stretch to put it mildly. I also struggle to imagine a scenario where Russia puts boots on Estonian ground and the other Baltics, Poland, and Finland don't step in to help. Czechia would also not be far behind.

As for your North Korea example, that's actually a very instructive one, because they have practically zero power projection aside from their hit-and-miss missile program.

Their psyops have also reached their apex, I think. Trump will not win and people are (slowly) becoming more wise to foreign influence online.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Without US and EU support Russia would wrap up the war in Ukraine quite quickly. That would be the death of Ukrainian morale.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

And if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 8 months ago

So wildly irrelevant as to be stupifying...

Logically speaking, A would likely cause B

Yes and illogically speaking, my grandmother might be a bicycle

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Trump is ahead in polls. If the US doesnt provide help to Ukraine, Ukraine has 0% chance of winning. Europe does not have the military inventory or production to provide meaningful longterm help to Ukraine, only the US has that.

I also struggle to imagine a scenario where Russia puts boots on Estonian ground and the other Baltics, Poland, and Finland don’t step in to help. Czechia would also not be far behind.

If Ukraine is mostly out and US is mostly out, then these countries dont have enough to resist Russia. Poland might have enough, combined with Finland and Sweden, in 5+ years but not atm.

As for your North Korea example, that’s actually a very instructive one, because they have practically zero power projection aside from their hit-and-miss missile program.

Do not underestimate North Korea. Their missile program is legit. In fact, probably some of the ballistic missiles Iran launched were based on North Korean designs. And some were modern iranian designs that are a lot better. These things are expensive and hard to shoot down.

Their psyops have also reached their apex, I think. Trump will not win and people are (slowly) becoming more wise to foreign influence online.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-20-how-us-allies-are-working-iron-out-bugs-2024-04-24/

"Germany is waging a charm offensive inside the Republican Party. Japan is lining up its own Trump whisperer. Mexican government officials are talking to Camp Trump. And Australia is busy making laws to help Trump-proof its U.S. defense ties."

"Britain's Labour party, now in opposition but strong favorite to win elections expected by year-end, may have a steeper hill to climb to reach a good relationship with a Trump administration.

Labour's nominative foreign minister, David Lammy, once wrote in Time magazine, opens new tab that Trump was a "woman-hating, neo-Nazi sociopath". Lammy is now working to build ties with Republicans, said a Labour official."

[–] [email protected] -1 points 8 months ago

Even if Trump loses, Europe is still in big trouble. Putin only has to wait (or coordinate) till Xi attacks Taiwan. This will focus the US military on that area leaving them with very little incentive and capacity to also support Europe in a war against Russia. And even if Russia attacks first, Xi can ramp up the rhetoric, threats and provocations. This will force the US to focus their efforts in Asia, leaving Europe to the Russians.