this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024
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I would think it's basically a coin flip for each living thing. It's possible, for example, that all humans survive, however the probability is so astronomically small, it's functionally impossible.
Same with gut biome. Even with several billion attempts, the probability that even 60% of any individual's trillion gut microbes get snapped would be essentially functionally impossible.
Just to give an idea of the unlikelihood we're talking about here, you can model this as a Bernoulli process with a binomial distribution.
If N is the number of beings potentially snapped, then (√N)/2 is the standard deviation. (If you're curious about why, you can read more here.) So for 8.2 billion people, the standard deviation is ~90,000. The chance of being more than ~3 standard deviations below the mean is 0.1%. That means there's only a 0.1% chance of snapping less than 4,099,720,200 people.