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edit: changed title from 'False Fukushima Fears' to 'Exaggerated Fukushima Fears', sacrificing my lovely alliteration as others have pointed out that it would be too much to say that the fears of radiation leakages are unfounded, but merely to say that this is the least bad option given previous precedent as cynesthesia has pointed out.

Image is of the large array of water storage tanks holding the tritium-contaminated water.

This week's preamble is very kindly provided by our beautiful poster @[email protected], with some light editing. In periods where not much of earth-shattering importance is happening in the news, I hope to do this more often!


In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear incident occurred. Since then, water has been used to cool radioactive waste and debris, which contaminates the water with radioactive isotopes. Currently, TEPCO, the Japanese energy company that is reponsible to Fukushima, is storing about 1.3 million m^3^ of contaminated water (equivalent to about 500 Olympic swimming pools for our American friends) in about 1000 tanks. Approximately 100,000 m3 of contaminated cooling water is generated per year to this day. TEPCO doesn't want to store escalating volumes of nuclear waste for decades until half-lives are spent. This would mean adding substantial storage capacity every year at increased cost and risk of tank spills.

The contaminated water includes heavier isotopes like caesium as well as hydrogen's isotope, tritum. Caesium is a big atom at 137 molar mass (we love our tremendous atoms, folks) while tritium is heavy hydrogen and has only a molar mass of 3 (pathetic, low energy). The TEPCO people are using water treatment to remove heavy isotopes from water, but not tritium. The large adult isotopes are easy to remove with treatment but tritium is incorporated into water, so it blends in with the others. The treated Fukushima water contains low levels of the big isotopes but still contains tritium.

Isotopes release radiation that damages the body's cells. The longer an individual molecule containing an isotope is in a body, the more likely it is that the isotope will go BRAZAP and release radiation that fucks up the cells. Bioaccumulation is a toxicology term for how certain contaminants can accumulate in the food cycle. For example, algae eat contaminants, then the algae is eaten by bugs, then bugs by fish, then fish by people. Isotopes that are bioaccumulative like our large adult son caesium are more hazardous. Tritium is not bioaccumulative because it is effectively part of water. Water cycles through bodies quickly - that's why you sweat and pee and get thirsty. spray-bottle

Fukushima water would be treated and then then mixed with seawater at a ratio of 1:800 before it is pumped 1km offshore. Each year approximately 166,000 m3 of treated water will be released, which will draw down the volume of contaminated water being stored over a few decades. Real-time stats associated with the release are found here. At the point of discharge, water contains about 207 Bq/L of radioactivity, about 16 times greater than the 10-15 Bq/L background level in the ocean overall. Drinking water guidelines for tritium radioactivity range from 1,000-10,000 Bq/L, if one were to drink seawater.

In wastewater treatment terms, this is a small amount of dilution in a very large body of water. It is unlikely to have any measurable impact per the terms of Western science. In the context of mother nature taking yet another one for the team and environmental distress, this sucks. In the context of making the best of a shitty situation, the Fukushima water release is peanuts compared to the many other environmental liabilities that are not addressed. For example, the Hanford Site is an example of a nuclear wastewater storage facility gone/going wrong in Oregon.


Ending note by 72: By far the biggest impact of the release of this water won't be its direct effects, but those on commerce and international relations. Almost half of Japanese aquatic exports go to China, comprising 8% of all Japanese firms shipping goods to China, and they have now been cut off due to their anger at Japan. Perhaps this reaction and the cancellation of imports was inevitable, as nuclear power and radiation in general is a poorly understood, frightening, and thus easily exploitable topic in every country. China is not the first country to use a misunderstanding of radiation risk to try and achieve a goal - Germany seems very pleased with itself - and they will not be the last.

In all: it is unequivocal that China is massively exaggerating the risks of this water's release. However, the bellicose rhetoric and actions of Japan, South Korea, and America are a much greater danger to the region, and none of the three seem to be in any hurry to try diplomacy instead of increasing military budgets and gearing up for war.


It's that time again - every two months I give myself a week off, to rest and recalibrate. Your regularly scheduled programming will resume next week.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


top 50 comments
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[–] [email protected] 61 points 1 year ago

To celebrate one year of Joe Bidens America blowing up it's allies infrastructure and getting away with it virtually clean, I demand awarding a month-long maximum ultra cuck status to Olaf Scholz in the Chad-cuck rankings.

It's so baffling living in Germany, I'm still weirded out how nobody is even talking about it. "uhm yeah, that happened, was probably Russia, nevermind we didn't need it anyway..."

[–] [email protected] 59 points 1 year ago (9 children)

NAFOs malding that Russia... built a school.

I felt sick to my stomach after listening to the school principal brag about the school providing additional education and some new incredible activity clubs that Mariupol didn’t have before for free.

Yeah, how horrible of them. That's absolutely evil!

What the heck does it even means? Additional endogcrination?

endogcrination

The $&@# build a school on top of the building they destroyed!

Because they're just supposed to leave an empty lot there?

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago

endogcrination

swole-doge

[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 year ago

endogcrination

dog-faced-pony-soldier

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[–] [email protected] 58 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

But enough about Ukraine, here’s the real important news:

‘Conserve food and water’: No access in or out of Burning Man after storm

Burning Man conditions are bordering on disaster with over 70,000 people trapped and sheltering-in-place after rains turned the playa into an undrivable mud pit.

sicko-pig

[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago

Every time I almost give in fully to despair Hellworld gives us 70,000 tech bros going full Lord of the Flies, sometimes there's so much beauty in the world.

[–] [email protected] 27 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Rumors of an ebola outbreak as well, but I'm 80% sure they're fake.

[–] [email protected] 51 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Brace from TrueAnon is the source lol, 100% a bit

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 year ago

For real?! Fucking amazing.

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[–] [email protected] 50 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I don't know why, but i keep having conversations with people that turn to the ukraine conflict. I guess it's because i have a reputation for knowing what's going on around the world (largely thanks to you beautiful folks lea-finger-guns). But it's incredible the amount of ignorance people have about history, geography, and political realities. I guess i can't blame them, as they likely have other, more serious concerns than reading a dozen books or staring at an rss feed, but man, i love the news crew. You guys keep me informed and on top of things, and the more i read, the more i feel i can give opinions on things.

Also, i ran into an actual nafo guy at work, and when he brought up the ukraine conflict, i didn't want to stay and debate him, so i just told him that Galicia belongs to the poles and left.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 year ago

so i just told him that Galicia belongs to the poles and left.

gigachad-hd

[–] [email protected] 48 points 1 year ago (3 children)

US caught straight lying or someone else caught playing both sides and getting burned as a result? Both are possible.

Indonesia rubbishes Pentagon’s ‘joint statement’ on China and Russia

“There is no joint statement and no press conference. What is important for me to underline is that our relationship with China is very good. We respect each other, we already have mutual understanding. I conveyed that in the US,” he said, adding “We are close friends with China, we respect America, and we seek friendship with Russia.”

A hexbear user tries to escape life in the European Union. Colorized, circa 2023

liberty-weeping sicko-no

[–] [email protected] 33 points 1 year ago

US caught straight lying

shocked-pikachu

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[–] [email protected] 47 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

Here’s something to yell at your local liberal to give them brainworm whiplash:

“Lvov belongs to Poland. It only became part of Ukraine after red fash Stalin invaded Poland with his best friend Hitler. Why do you support Soviet imperialism?”

Liberals will bitch and cry about the Soviets invading Poland and in the same sentence spout their Ukrainian revanchist Nazi talking points

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 1 year ago (10 children)

I like that this thread and the other megathread don't seem to get much traffic from other instances. It's refreshing to come in here and read conversations about world news without having to argue with random libs

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

Ancap candidate, and likely future president of Argentina said: "A Company can pollute a river as much as they want".

He left us with another glorious quotes such as "Where is the damage? Where is the problem? That, in reality, speaks about a society that has an over abundance of water", "The problem lays in the fact that there is no private property over water, when there is a lack of water, someone will see a business opportunity there and will claim property rights over it. You will then see how the pollution problem will be fixed".

Article in Spanish

Eternal suffering to all fascists and market fundamentalists. May Destiny be merciful with our people, because I am are sure capitalists wont be.

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Imagining chuds buying Tequila just to pour it out to own Mexico if we do invade

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 1 year ago

https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/opinion/living-conditions-in-ukraine-are-resembling-a-new-slavery-a

Oped by a ukrainian communist about the degradation of working conditions/state capacity in ukraine. This is describing a failed state in every aspect except military enforcement of the states existence

[–] [email protected] 45 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Anyone else finished the new season of Blowback? Gotta say it really affected my outlook on China and its domestic extremism problem. Definitely more of a fuck around/find out vibe given that they also helped train fundamentalists in the country next door. Such an unnecessary self-own. I'm gonna need to stew on this for a while but I'm curious if anyone else noticed this/had thoughts.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Yeah, when I say I've never been a fan of China's foreign policy I mean that. They've only recently started to turn it around with their debt forgiveness to smaller countries, but overall China really whiffed the last 60 years of foreign policy.

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[–] [email protected] 44 points 1 year ago (1 children)

My dad and I are probably the only two people in my state who care about the coups in Africa and the war in Ukraine. It literally seems like everyone else in America does not know or does not care.

We leftists might think we seem weird to others for being so heavily invested, but honestly just think how weird the Slava Ukraina libs look and sound like to the average American

[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago

can confirm, a bunch of those neoliberal weirdos at my college, everyone thinks theyre fucking weirdos.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

I have been trying to compile from Western mainstream press coverage about the events leading up to Maidan as well as the post-Maidan Minsk agreements, and I am starting to think I might lose my sanity just doing this.

Here’s a recurring pattern in how the presses cover the events:

Russia, trying to adhere to the “proper rules” by engaging in the agreed Normandy Format (even though clearly for their own selfish national interests): “Putin clearly has secret imperialist ambitions to restore the Tsarist Soviet Empire, sure he still showed up to all the meetings and performed his due responsibilities, but we have to be very suspicious of the ulterior motives behind Putin agreeing with moving forward the peace agreements.”

Ukraine, not even bothering to implement Minsk citing “Russia just gives me bad vibes”: “You are so right, Ukraine is right not to trust Russia’s motivations behind Minsk. Russia gives out too much bad vibes, and there is nothing wrong at all with Ukraine not adhering to the international agreements that they themselves have signed.”

And I thought vibes-based politics only exist on the internet.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Liberals are dumber than an infant in terms of politics. They are not worth taking seriously.

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[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Exclusive: U.S. to send its first depleted uranium rounds to Ukraine -sources

I have mentioned this before, but as a reminder: the primary danger of Depleted Uranium (DU) ammunition is not radioactivity. Rather, it is the toxic dust particles that form when the round hits a vehicle or building. Anyone who enters such an enclosed area contaminated with DU particles is at risk of serious health consequences if they breathe them in. Drinking water contaminated with DU is also dangerous. Those dust particles will essentially never go away on their own, since the half life of DU is over 4 billion years.

[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 year ago

Objectively, the people of Ukraine will have been much better off if Boris Johnson never threatened / talked to Zelensky and had them reject making peace with Russia. They’ll still lose all the same territory if not more, and what remains of Ukraine will be left in far worse condition.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago

The "let's poison Ukraine... For Ukraine"

This war helps neither Ukraine nor Russia.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Firing DU rounds creates toxic gas, so amerikkka is even poisoning our brave slava ukrainies

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

think-mark Think, Kharkov, think. What will you still have after 500 years?

ukkkraine I'll still have you, DU rounds

[–] [email protected] 38 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Belarus claims Poland violated its airspace. Probably won't cause anything, but it sure is fun having potentially WW3 starting events every couple months.

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago

Seems like the positive Ukrainian momentum that started a few days ago in Zaporozhye has stalled again. They're wedged in the low ground between Robotyne and Verbove, and are pretty much surrounded by Russians on the high ground by three sides. Ukrainians have around a month to reach Tokmak now, rain season will start in October, which makes larger mechanised assaults way more difficult. I wonder if Russia has any plan for offensive operations soon, or maybe they will continue absorbing the pressure until next summer.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Russia is making gains near Kupiansk. It seems to me that the goal is to hold the line in the south and try and make a push for the Oskil-Donets confluence just a few miles northwest of Donetsk oblast. I think it would put them a good position to eventually take the rest of the Donetsk oblast next year. It doesn’t seem possible to make all those gains this month, but it’ll interesting to see if the Ukrainians in the south or the Russians in the north gain more land.

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 year ago (3 children)

It's wild that liberals have joked about Russia's final warning or crossing red lines so much that it's a meme to them, but when Russia finally attacked they call it unprovoked lmao

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 year ago (3 children)

It's not true for all of them, but for the more geopolitically-knowledgeable liberals I find a lot of their verbal additions to the simple phrase "Russia-Ukraine War" (so, something like "Putin's Unprovoked Invasion and War of Aggression" etc) to be a 'the lady doth protest too much' kinda thing. they know they're bullshitting and the evidence of it is the constant assertion that these qualifiers and descriptors be added on every time.

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[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 year ago (4 children)

What does Jimmy buffetts death mean for the ukrainian counter offensive

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[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 year ago (3 children)

The more I watch the remnants of the Soviet Red Army blow each other to pieces, the more I find my hope dying.

At least there's NATO equipment getting shredded, the final revenge of Soviet Steel.

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[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Good article on France vs America in Western Africa per today's MoA. There's not much discussion of material factors here, but I think this is nevertheless instructive of the ideological conflict between different elements of the NATO foreign policy blob. The author of this piece appears to be a French colonialist think tank lanyard, responding to an overt shot at France from some RAND drone.

https://www.revueconflits.com/pourquoi-lamerique-veut-elle-chasser-la-france-dafrique/

Machine translated:

What is at stake is therefore not simply France's presence in the Sahel or in Africa. It is its maintenance as a sovereign global power or its reduction to a "better-advised" peripheral power in Europe. By extension, the very nature of relations between the great democracies depends on it: will they form a rigid, imperial bloc behind the United States or will they be able to form a flexible alliance within a multilateral framework, much better able to defend their interests and values?

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[–] [email protected] 32 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

NYT: "No surface to air missiles were detected" US Defense Department weighs in on recent Russian plane crash that killed 10 including Jimmy Buffet

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 year ago (8 children)

Hey someone have a megathread on American interferences in Russia in the 90s?

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 year ago

Ngl Second Thoughts' shock therapy vid on Russia is probably your best bet for a short intro. I can't link it atm, but it's called How Capitalism Destroyed Russia or something similar.

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[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Canada`s link tax fiasco is going well /s

Meta seems to have been shown to be right. The law officially doesn't apply to them since they blocked Canadian news.

Also if your wondering the link tax is 4% of global revenues. I am now expecting Google to also de-list Canadian news. These people have no clue how the Internet works. They are somehow in their 40s and proposing a fucking link tax. Also, they have changed the Minister for this portfolio 3 times.

Meanwhile, small and indie media hatesthe bill, since they need the internet. Big media corps that are owned by big corps/telecoms absolutely love it since they will get most of the $$$$.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Do you think far right people look at all the nazi symbols Ukraine uses the same way we view Russians using soviet symbols?

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 year ago

They probably like the plausible deniability it gives them with libs

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[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Moon of Alabama: As The U.S. Wages War On It China Reacts With Defiance

Just as U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo returns from China her department issues new restrictions on chip deliveries

Boringly predictable

The attempt is to prevent 'leaks' of chips from countries like the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia to Russia and China. But, as [MoA] noted yesterday, China is already making chips of equal capacity

China is not only autarkic in making chips but now also in making the delicate machines needed to make chips

Positive news if true (unless you're an american chip maker)

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I want to highlight this particular update by Mercouris yesterday but just the last 10 minutes where he talks about the G20 and a specific article from the Financial times. I know not everyone enjoys his style but this is IMO some very good commentary. If you're bothered by his speech(he is on the slower side) maybe try 1.5x speed.

I think this time he manages to give a very good overview of the current climate and I think it is worth watching. Just a few points

-FT/west dismayed over Xi not attending the G20

-India supposedly frustrated that no progress is made because when dealing with the US means everything is always tied to agreement on the Ukraine war issue.

-Western narrative tries to blame lack of progress on the Chinese but they also can't understand that the Chinese views are also supported by many other global south countries therefore(my take here) this is a nonstarter, even if China wasn't socialist there is no imperative for China or anyone else to agree with anything, in other simpler words the west always saw these meetings as a place to sign and give orders instead of a place for negotiation and diplomacy. [Insert Marxist theory about imperialism here if its not already obvious.]

-Xi doesn't bother going because the G20 is increasingly irrelevant.

-Important point that we can notice that the west wants to keep the appearance of normality in relationship with China, the US keeps sending some irrelevant dumb idiot official after the other, between Yelen and Blinken etc while also going off the rails and escalating e.g Taiwan issue and chip war. The CPC on the other hand already understands this.

-Also points out(not the first time, he said this since last year) that the Chinese already understand they can't make deals with the US because every time one western official goes and says one thing the US government then goes and does the opposite.

-What he didn't mention in all of this is this isn't the first time and at least it is still fresh in my memory the absolute chad Xi berating Canadian PM whatever his idiot name is on the last G20 over exactly the same issue i.e Western guy comes and says one thing then turns around and says another to the media.

-Finally he thinks Xi simply doesn't like Biden(specially after Biden calling him a dictator) and that is one of the main reasons as well. Personally I call this maybe his worst take here, but then again if I were Xi it would be extremely tough to not go on CGTN or something and tell Biden to draw a clock every single time I could so I can relate.

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[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (5 children)

I am taking a break from writing about the Russian economy, and want to mix in my posts with some Chinese economy as well. So I just spent the last few hours translating an episode of recent Wen Tiejun’s video podcast: The real estate crisis, “want to save you but it’s not easy” (Note: this talk was in a casual, colloquial conversation format, it actually makes it harder to translate into text, so keep in mind that I had to edit and reshuffle some sentences to make them readable. Also, this is a rough translation, so I apologize for not delivering a professionally translated article).

This is Part 1 of a three episode video podcasts about the real estate bubble in China. I will follow up on the next two when I have more time, so stay tuned.

Wen Tiejun: The real estate crisis, “want to save you but it’s not easy”

Today I would like to discuss with all of you about a hot issue, not just a current hot issue, but one that has been heated for several years now - and that is the problem of real estate crisis.

I have reported a few years back that the crisis in real estate is not merely a problem of the real estate sector, but one that has linked three bubbles together: the real estate bubble, the financial bubble and the debt bubble.

The real estate crisis in China

spoiler

Why is this a long-term central issue? To begin with, the regulatory policies that our country has continuously implemented over the last several years had enabled us to prevent a serious crisis that would have been comparable to the 2007 US subprime mortgage crisis. As we all know, the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis in the US, which then immediately morphed into the 2008 Wall Street financial tsunami, had triggered a crisis of globalization in which the world has increasingly trending towards de-globalization (disintegration of globalization, 全球化解体). This was a lesson well worth learning from.

As we entered 2017-2018, that is, before the US trade sanctions against China in 2018, the real estate over-supply/over-production crisis had already emerged in our country. However, because the economic growths in the other sectors were relatively weak at the time, the Chinese economy became increasingly reliant on the real estate sector to sustain its growth.

After 2018, despite that the over-supply of commercial real estate properties across various regions has become an imminent problem, the real estate developers, financial institutions and local governments continued to invest heavily in the real estate market over the 4-year period of real estate over-expansion under an already saturated condition - from the early emergence of over-supply in 2018 to the end of the government regulation in 2022.

.

The link between real estate and the financial bubble

spoiler

The extent of this real estate expansion is also tightly intertwined with the financial sector, which means that if the real estate bubble bursts, there is a very real possibility of the real estate crisis directly escalating into a full-fledged financial crisis. This is why I said that the series of policy instituted by the central government to regulate the real estate sector over this period, had to a certain extent prevented an American-style 2007-2008 financial crisis in China.

However, despite the fact that regulatory measures had dampened the risk of a crisis, this does not mean that characteristics and the various conditions for a crisis have gone away.

The problem that we are facing today remains a very serious one. Maybe you’ve seen on the internet a series of related statistics: first, the total volume of real estate, where there are about 800 million units in the urban area. If we average the number of urban population, one person owning a single unit should be adequate (note: this simply means that there are more properties in the urban area than there are people). And this still hasn’t taken into account the large amount of completed commercial properties in the rural area, which if we average over the last few years, would give an area of about 900 million square meters. And there is also a very large number of properties that weren’t sold and remained in the hands of the real estate developers i.e. those that they were unable to sell.

This is not merely an over-supply of residential properties, the underlying problem is financial in nature, in which large volume of investments had flowed into the real estate sector. We have seen from research findings that showed that more than 50% of household debt and more than 50% of corporate debt are mortgage debt. In other words, household and corporate loans have not been directed toward consumption and the real economy, but had overwhelmingly went into the real estate sector.

According to related research data, 60% of the household assets are in real estate. If there is a serious slide in the real estate sector, this would mean a corresponding slide in household assets as well - i.e. the value of household assets would significantly contract. In the same vein, many corporate assets are also real estate properties, and this similarly means that corporate asset value would slide downwards. By extension, this would mean that the market value of the stock market would shrink following the dive in asset value.

This will result in a series of crises - but this is still one of the more tangible aspects of the problem. On the other hand, maybe this is a less well known, an even more embarrassing problem: for a certain period of time now, the real estate developers that have accumulated huge amount of wealth have been moving their capital outward, to foreign countries, and this process of capital outflow would also intensify the risk of a real estate crisis. At the same time, this means that real estate companies would become insolvent, or in other words, this would break their financing chain. These real estate companies would then end up with a series of debt problems that they themselves could not possibly resolve.

Now, people are starting to request that the central government save the real estate developers.

Here, I will interject a little. Before we got the camera rolling, I was still discussing with our volunteer team on what to title this episode. I wanted to call it “Real estate crisis - want to save you but it’s not easy”.

A lot of people are now talking about the stimulating effects of the real estate sector on the economy. This is true - we know that real estate is deeply connected with dozens, if not hundreds of different sectors in the economy. Its weight in driving GDP growth supposedly reaches more than 20%. Of course, these are the calculations from various investment firms and financial institutions. We cannot comment on the accuracy of their assessments, because many of these financial institutions have deep ties with the real estate sector, and a large amount of their investments have gone into real estate. As such, emphasizing the “heavy” role of real estate in the national economy would help create a narrative that justifies the call for the central government to save the real estate sector, which, in other words, also means saving the financial sector.

Objectively speaking, when looking at the different numbers, there are also statistics that purports that, purely from the standpoint of real estate sector, its proportion is only 6-8% of the GDP - that is, if we don’t count every industry that is related to the real estate. If we include all sectors that have ties with the real estate, then the estimate is about 20+%.

From this perspective, people have said that if we want the economy to grow, we will have to reinvigorate real estate development. But is it really so?

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