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I really hope Europe is going to give them the support they need to see this through.
Me too, man. Me too.
I've found that Colonel Maruks Reisner provides some of the best information available on the war.
He doesn't update frequently but all his analysis are sober, detailed, and realistic. He states his pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian bias clearly.
If I could sum up the general trend of his presentation it's, "The status quo favors Russia. If we don't get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win."
And god I hope they keep going and keep winning.
Especially without American Support
Which is probably why they're trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.
Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is just propaganda, Russia's main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.
Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…
I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They're diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren't totally sure about.
I'm going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they're politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don't know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can't keep this up the same way forever.
No wonder Krasnov Trump and Nazi Elon Musk are panicking and begging for a deal.
I've heard this one before. As much as I'd like to believe it...
Step up, EU. It's on you now that the US are traitors.
As an American I'd like to apologize for the shit show my country currently is.
I've never felt shame like this.
We Europeans should have never hesitated to supply Ukraine. Let's make up for the fuck-up and give them everything we have and the AmeriKan Nazis can piss and moan on the sidelines.
What if the US stepping back is exactly what Europe needs to become a true superpower?"
It hit me recently that Europe has largely relied on the US to take the lead on global issues, often playing it safe and deferring to American influence. But what if the US pulling back its support is actually a blessing in disguise?
Without the US as the default leader, NATO and the EU could finally step up, stand on their own, and evolve into a unified superpower. This shift could bring much-needed stability to the region—and potentially the world—especially as the US faces its own internal challenges.
Sure, it’s not guaranteed to play out this way, but isn’t this a more appealing vision than the current status quo or the rise of authoritarian powers dominating the global stage?
Defense Minister Ruslan Umerov said 96% of all drones fielded by the Ukrainian military are domestically manufactured. Syrsky said during 2024, Ukrainian drone producers delivered more than 1.3 million robot aircraft to the armed forces. About 85% of all Russian casualties and vehicle kills on the battlefield are scored by Ukrainian drones, Malyuk said.
Very interesting to see the statistics. I always assumed drones were doing the most damage but it’s nice to have a number confirm this.
This war is a sample of what all major conflicts between industrialized nations are going to look like from now on. Even more utterly horrific for the average soldier. Death from above at any moment without warning, fuzzy front lines, the whole thing.
Equipment, too. The US DoD was looking at a new tank, but axed it. They don't exactly give out their reasons why, but a good guess is they saw what drones were doing in Ukraine and decided the design would have been obsolete before the first one came off the assembly line.
No exaggeration, Russia is issuing donkeys and mules (yes actual pack animals) to soldiers for transporting supplies because vehicles are in short supply.
Well, mules don't require fuel, and they also work as field rations in a pinch.
Otoh, they need a steady supply of mules. I don't think there are that many nowadays. Although who knows with Russia.
Mules absolutely do require fuel; they’ll only be useful for a few days without food.
Russia is going to run out of troops.
IDK when, but they're basically feeding their population into a meat grinder trying to take Ukraine.
That's not too say the Ukraine isn't taking losses.... I've just, seen some numbers that indicate that Russia is going to run out of people to send to their deaths before Ukraine will.
Putin needs to give this up before he doesn't have a military anymore.
It's not that they will run out of people. They have people, but to keep recruitment levels so high and equipment manufacturing so high they are overcharging their economy. Right now in Russia there are three types of jobs if you want to make money afaik, work in the military complex (arms manufacturing), in the gas extraction industry or directly in the military.
It's Dutch disease x100, if the state at some point stops being able to fund the war machine, their economy collapses.
To add to this, Putin can recruit from the poorest regions for a while, but at some point he needs to get men from the larger cities. The last thing he wants is protests from Moskou etc. The average person from Moskou hadn't had that much negative effects from the war yet. But if you, your son or father is forced to the battlefield it's a different story.
I hope you're right. Because in general the reaction of the Russian population to the war has been so meek, I'm starting to doubt it would be any different once recruitment starts hitting the biggest cities.
It's so meek because of the political stance of "I am not political" that permeats the whole society.
Its main idea is that "I make actively sure to not see or hear what is happening around me, and in return I can live my life reasonably carefree." That's an unspoken contract between the junta leading the country and its populace. If one side breaks the contract, it's null and void.
The funny thing is, the people have not noticed that the contract has been broken, because they are actively avoiding noticing anything that has to do with society!
And the word "actively" is of great significance. Because it's not passivity, it's a stance held up actively by each individual. The situation of the Russia is all the time deeper and deeper "in your face", and eventually it'll be so deep that there's nothing the individual can do to avoid noticing it.
And then they become active in... Well, some other manner.
To be clear: The Russia's losses are increasing month after month, but their recruitment capacity is not. They are recruiting about 1000 soldiers every day, maybe a bit less. And the number seems to be going down, not growing. They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day now meaning a net loss of something like 400 to 900 soldiers per day!
They won't run out of population anytime soon, but they will run out of soldiers.
Russia is running out of troops but their recruitment numbers are way higher than Ukraine’s. I support the Ukrainian armed forces unconditionally and have donated to them multiple times so believe me that it brings me no pleasure to say this, but there is no way Russia runs out of soldiers before Ukraine does.
Russia won't run out of troops, but they will run out of capable troops: Russian Casualties & Force Generation - Losses, Recruitment & Sustaining the war in Ukraine
I believe it too. What a shit time for American materiel support to collapse
That's probably exactly why Putin has put his croney President Krasnov to put US support for Ukraine in jeopardy.
USA's Mr. 47 will seriously take $5m from Mr. Putin to invite him to live in 'the land of the free'. And spend all of his ruble there.
I honestly don't know how to read the situation. Ukraine's fought terrifically, but their status seems far less sustainable even if you discount the Trump stuff. I don't put a lot of stock in these claims that Russia is on the verge of imploding due to the stress of the war, any day now. It is possible, but mostly seems like wishful thinking.
External aid changes the situation a bit, but not ultimately that much because no Western power seems willing to directly intervene with troops. Barring that, the overall situation between the two countries feels a bit like what Shelby Foote said about the US Civil War: "the North fought that war with one hand behind its back... If there had been more Southern victories, and a lot more, the North simply would have brought that other hand out from behind its back."