this post was submitted on 10 Feb 2025
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Krugman has this to say about it:

For those not familiar with how financial markets work, US Treasuries are the ultimate safe asset, used as collateral for everything. Even a hint that some Treasuries might not be honored could bring everything to a screeching halt

Musk and Trump are both in the habit of stiffing people they owe money. If markets even suspect that this habit will extend to Treasuries, God help us

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[–] [email protected] 142 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (5 children)

2nd week in a row he has tried to crash the market over the weekend for Monday morning.

I’m guessing all his hedge fund asshole/twat stain friends already purchased their puts and agent orange is providing the catalyst.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 week ago

I think the "freeze all federal spending" from a couple weeks ago could also qualify.

[–] kablammy 11 points 1 week ago (2 children)

What was the previous attempt? I'm falling behind in this gish gallop.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 week ago
[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Last weekend it was the Mexico/Canada “25% tariffs” that he pussied out on and reversed his decision on both countries by Monday morning.

[–] xmunk 15 points 1 week ago

Just as a note Tariffs are back on (but only for steel/aluminum).

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[–] xmunk 132 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Assuming he doesn't talk that back really fucking quick that'll literally implode the bond market.

[–] [email protected] 70 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

My guess is that this is just him leading up to trying to refuse payment. A few days is hardly enough time to make any real assessment of the debts the treasury services, but all he has to do is say words and the rest of the idiots fall in line.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 1 week ago (2 children)

And the Democrats present a New Deal in 2028

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 week ago

Too bad they had Manchin piss away all their credibility for them.

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 1 week ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 33 points 1 week ago (1 children)

A lot of countries have defaulted without doing that. I'm a lot more concerned that it'll cause an interest rate spike, with associated stock market crash, and bring on a sharp cut in business investment and employment.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 week ago

Countries are already looking for alternatives to trading with America, the felon is speedrunning Brexit along with everything else.

[–] [email protected] 116 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (3 children)

This breaks the economy.

If the US defaults on its loans, its creditability drops, which will probably destabilize the global value of the US$. China and Russia will benefit most. Every nation with financial ties to the US will suffer for it.

When trying to understand why certain decisions are made, follow the money. Donald Trump is a foreign asset.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 week ago

If you mean he is working for them... nah. He wouldn't do what they ask, or would screw it up. They get smarter people to manipulate him into doing things in thier favor. I suppose that could be called a foriegn asset to. Not sure though.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago

Russia has already defaulted on some loans. China's second biggest trade partner is USA (EU is first but trade is more balanced between the two than USA), so this would hurt China greatly as well.

Seems to me EU would benefit the most.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Something most people don't get is that China holding a significant portion of our debt gives them an incentive to protect USD. By defaulting, there is no reason for them not to do everything in their power to destroy USD. This is literally the only meaningful economic tool the US has and he wants to devalue it.

[–] [email protected] 87 points 1 week ago (12 children)

So for those unaware. If followed through this would be the biggest economic crisis worldwide, since the great depression. No hyperbole.

US treasury bonds are the way the US government borrows money. They are most of the debt. They are also the "safe asset". Because it was assumed that the US, being the sole superpower and the biggest economy, would always pay back its debts. Because of this whenever organizations needed to park money super safely, they would use US government bonds.

Around 30 trillion worldwide, that is 1/3 of the world's GDP, is held in US bonds.

You know who the biggest borrowers of US debt are? Pension funds. And you know the biggest one of all of them? Social Security. US social security holds around 3 trillion of US debt. Debt that would suddenly be worth nothing anymore.

In total, around 27 trillion of treasury bonds are held in the US by pension funds, local governments, etc. These would be gone.

Other countries would suddenly lose 3 trillion, biggest of which are Japan, China and the UK. Belgium Luxembourg and Switzerland hold a huge share compared to their economy, and could collapse completely.

But hey, at least the national debt is gone, right?

Well.. No one would borrow the US money anymore. Who would trust them anymore? Likely, this would be the end of the USD as the worlds reserve currency. With that, I doubt military spending could be upheld. The US would collapse as a superpower.

[–] __nobodynowhere 20 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

Every avenue they are speed running self immolation. I'm pretty convinced they want to burn this country down so they can rebuild it in their images. A narcissist and foolish lot. We won't be able to weather this storm. Other nations aren't going to just sit by while we're down. Somebody will take advantage of the situation but it isn't going to Trump, Musk, Thiel, et al.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Burning the US down to divvy it up amongst themselves so they can run their own little technofiefdoms is all but their stated goal. They're talking about network states and crypto-resever currencies, and salivating at the prospect of having entire populations that they control outright to be the grist for their techno-futurist fantasies of being the sole owners of the cyberpunk dystopian mega corps.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

"We are proud to announce that we have created the Cyberpunk future from 'Please Don't Create This Cyberpunk Future'."

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 week ago (1 children)

God, the US would collapse as a country. It runs a huge deficit, what would it be without the dollar?

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 week ago

Trump coin run through X of course lol.

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[–] [email protected] 71 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

... Trump seems to be basing this on some analysis from the DOGE boys. This appears to have been one of the DOGE boys’ main goals at Treasury, getting access to details about what kinds of payments Treasury makes, the answer being close to everything the U.S. government does outside of the Pentagon and some of the Pentagon stuff too. The Treasury also services the U.S. debt, which is what we’re talking about here. I’m less clear on what access to which part of the Treasury Department these guys could have gotten to get information about how the Treasury Department sells and services Treasury notes. But all that detail aside, imagine thinking that by downloading a ton of data and having a few days to analyze it you could make the determination that a significant amount of the U.S. national debt wasn’t real and didn’t have to be paid. It’s hardly the craziest thing we’ve seen over recent days. But it’s still worth noting how nuts that is.

I'm lost for words.

[–] Corkyskog 12 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I disagree with that author, this is definitely one of the craziest things seen in recent days. This is on par with going to war with Canada as one of the quickest ways to speed run the demise of the US... It probably would be quicker. Debt can be downgraded overnight, war takes time.

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[–] [email protected] 63 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

He's trying to crash the dollar for cryptobros. Or Putin.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago

He either crashes the economy or putin releases the pee tape.

[–] [email protected] 53 points 1 week ago (1 children)

This could trigger a Minsky moment. And a world wide financial meltdown. Then he'll just say haha just kidding. Once that genie is out of the bottle though, there's no going back.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 week ago

Elon won't say anything until Minsky starts to screw him over

[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Why would he even say this? Usually there's a pretty clear motivation to his lies but this one just seems suicidal

[–] [email protected] 50 points 1 week ago (1 children)

At this point I'm pretty sure destroying the country is the point. I would not be the slightest bit surprised to hear he has muskrat whispering in his ear about buying literally everything after the collapse.

[–] kablammy 6 points 1 week ago (3 children)

Wouldn't completely destroying the economy make their billions near worthless as well?

[–] phdepressed 19 points 1 week ago

They're high on their own supply. A lot of these techbros seriously believe they'll be new monarchs after societal collapse.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 week ago

Depends on how much money they have in assets other than $USD.

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 week ago

"I have reduced the US's debt by X" claims are one potential option. It could also be any other number of things.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 week ago

It's yet another barganing chip he is trying to create. Somebody with these things doesn't do what he wants, he just declares the ones they have are fake. Person, country... as others have pointed out, this will tank the value of them as well, and probably trigger inflation. Both of which in a way reduce the federal debt so he can claim he did that. It just also causes a lot of much bigger issues.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Sort of funny that as soon as the greatest generation died their children, who were too stupid to understand what they had built, destroyed their empire

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago

Boomers have never once in their miserable little lives understood that their favorite Facebook meme calls them the weak men.

[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I picked a fine week to give up sniffing glue.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago (2 children)

i'm going to guess that this is somehow related to making money on cryptocurrency

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 week ago

Weapons-grade stupid. Crash global economy any % speedrun.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Maybe making money something everybody has to believe in was a bad idea

Quick! Everybody clap your hands and say "I do believe in T Bills!"

[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (6 children)

It was part of how we got out of the Great Depression — it transferred money from the owning class to people who had debts. We don't actually want to go back to gold (or any other non-inflationary currency) because it gets rid of the flexibility to do that, which part of how we prevent bad recessions from turning into deflationary recessions.

In any case, having fiat currency, or not, is a separate issue from whether the US will actually pay its debts as promised. And it's the debt payment that Trump is putting in question.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 week ago

Ha, if that were true, Monday markets will be such a blood bath those of us without publicly traded industry or non profits will be fucked too

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 week ago

It seems like Elon is controlling Trump even in this. Isn't devaluing to swing markets an Elon move? He probably wants to sell a bunch of stock and simply trying to crash the EV market wasn't enough if a wave for him to become the first trillionaire. Crashing the dollar it is I guess?

[–] meowmeowbeanz 8 points 1 week ago

The 14th Amendment clause about debt validity exists precisely because of this flavor of posturing oligarchs – now we’ve got bargain-bin John Galt cosplayers auditing T-bills between meme stocks. Trump’s “irregularities” schtick is just sovereign citizen logic scaled to national debt levels, complete with DOGE bros LARPing as forensic accountants.

Declaring chunks of debt illegitimate isn’t fiscal policy – it’s a wealth incinerator disguised as a spreadsheet error. Markets would implode if taken seriously, but the real damage is normalizing this circus as governance. Treasury raids morphing into TikTok challenges where the prize is collapsing the dollar’s reserve status.

Constitutional bedrock becomes optional when your economic advisors mainline 4chan threads. The only “irregularity” here is the cognitive dissonance required to bankrupt a superpower for clout.

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