Bear in mind - Tesla is massively overvalued.
this post was submitted on 02 Jan 2025
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I think Tesla is fairly valued.
Holy hell that really puts things in perspective 😮
Could you explain it to me? (no sarcasm) It seems to be saying that the stock prices are way out of balance to what it's worth. Are there regulations around that?
Edit: I'm talking about the Market Cap part. I don't understand how the value can be that high compared to all of the other companies, especially China.
Market capitalization is just simple math, multiplying a company's stock price by the number of shares that have been issued. Tesla has issued roughly 3.2 billion shares and is currently trading at around $550, which makes their current market cap about $1.75 trillion dollars.
I don’t understand how the value can be that high compared to all of the other companies, especially China.
On its face it seems utterly nonsensical that Tesla is worth as much as all other auto makers combined, when Tesla only accounts for something like 5% of total US car sales. There are two reasons I can think of why this is currently so:
- Tesla accounts for roughly half of all US electric vehicle sales, and electric vehicle sales are roughly 10% of all US vehicle sales. If electric vehicles largely replace ICE vehicles and if Tesla maintains that share of EV sales, then Tesla will be an extremely valuable company. Investors might be betting on a) electric vehicles and b) Tesla continuing to the win the lion's share of electric vehicle sales.
- Tesla investors are irrational. Personally, my money is on this one. I think long-term Tesla is going to get crushed by cheaper and better-built EVs, probably from China but also possibly from other existing car manufacturers. Sometimes I'm tempted to short Tesla's stock based on this belief, but to quote John Maynard Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
It's more that Tesla is a bubble. The thing with bubbles is that it's actually completely rational to buy into them while they're inflating. As long as you get out before they pop, you can make a ton of money.
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I subscr to the theory that Tesla is valued not as an automotive stock but as a tech stock. Companies like Toyota and VW are valued wildly different from companies like Google and Amazon and tesla has long pushed for everyone to think of it as far more like apple than like Honda, with quite a bit of success. That's why Elon does his whole Tony stark/Steve jobs routine and swears full self driving and other revolutionary tech. Because otherwise you have to look at his vehicles as the gilded Yugos they are that do have some really great aspects, but ones that are now being done by companies like Hyundai that can actually assemble a car well
Thank you for explaining it so well. I thought that was what it was, but it seems insane to be valued that much higher to investors. Turns out, it probably is insane.
And remember if you want to try to cash in on this information "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
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That's ... the stock being overvalued lol
Yep, no problems here whatsoever.
You need another of these to go with it that shows these companies in terms of revenue.
Seriously, I’d love to see this chart, earnings chart and PE ratio chart to really see the whole picture
I don't have a chart for you but
2023 net profit
Toyota - 31.82b
VW AG- 17.331B
Tesla - 14.999b
BMW - 12.165B
GM - 10.1b
Ford - 4.347B
BYD - 4.16B
Edit: Just to preempt this, yes Tesla is suffering a lot more this year with the EV price wars, for the first 3 quarters, they're at 4.78b this year, whereas GM for example is at 8.97B. GM doesn't make a lot of profits (if any) on their EVs, but they still have ICE vehicles to fall back on whereas Tesla doesn't.
So the graphic shows the overvalued stock as proof of it being fairly valued?
My guess is there’s an invisible /s there
It takes a lot of guts to omit the /s these days. You can never be quite sure who’s funny and who’s just an idiot.
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Truly Elon is a Savant of our time to build such an incredibly successful company while failing to even capture an appreciable proportion of actual sales. Real "voice of a generation" level shit.
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I mean, all that proves is that the Stock Market is completely irrational and always has been and using as a metric for whether or not "the economy" is doing good has always been a fucking farce.
Tesla isn't the only massively overvalued company in existence at the moment, just the biggest and most obvious example.
Theranos was valued at around $9 billion before it all came out that it was a scam.
Damn, I remember that reddit post about the lab rat being told to falsify evidence or lie. I have a friend who's in the industry and he was going crazy about it.
The day that bubble bursts will be hilarious. I'll probably grab popcorn and livestream Twitter for Musky's meltdown
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- Piss off liberals who are pro-environment.
- Align himself to MAGA who loves their gas guzzlers
They may not love their gas guzzlers after a year of super high gas prices.
Can't wait for the "I did that!" stickers.
No, they absolutely still do. They just bitch about it more and blame the president.
When gas hit over $4 a gallon here in Texas, it barely moved the needle on sales of smaller vehicles. Those that did change vehicles went right back to that Ford F950 the second it came back down. Like, no one learned their lesson.
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I bought into the shit he was marketing back in 2019. I got a Model 3 and a single share of Tesla stock, and realized pretty quickly after a year of FSD not improving that Elon was full of shit. Some time later that one share turned into three because tesla did a stock split so elon could buy twitter, then sometime after shareholders approved a 50 billion pay package (not me).
So when he bought the republican party and the stock shot up, I got out. Didn't make any money, but fuck that guy. I cannot stand this Mfer or his shitty companies.
Is musk going to tweet something about a new, futuristic project that Tesla has coming up that he’s just ripping off from an 80s sci-fi movie again so the stock price bumps back up?
Tesla's stock price has been firmly disconnected from reality for a while now so probably
I think cars bore him now that he can play statesman
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Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
You know, I'm really tired of our country just letting this guy make up whatever fucking metrics he wants, and then we run everything on those fucking wrong-ass metrics. He did the same thing with Twitter and "impressions." It's all about lying through your teeth about what's really happening and using metrics and statistics to confuse people.
A delivery isn't the same as a sale, not even close. For instance, they also deliver vehicles after repair.
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Line went down! Abandon ship!
I'm amazed there is still 1.79 people who don't follow the news or how much of a toddler Musk is.
Nobody wants to invest in anything he touches anymore,and he has shown he will just disable software in vehicles if he feels like it. Wonder how long until he starts targeting his opponents with his vehicles, he's already doing it with his other platforms.
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Teala isn't releasing 2 lower cost autonomous vehicles in 2025.
They are releasing 2 lower cost vehicles.
The robo taxi isn't until 2026 if you make the assumption it's on time and is autonomous.
Saying teala is releasing 2 autonomous vehicles in 2025 is like saying teala sold 1.79 million autonomous vehicles this year.
The robo taxi isn't until 2026 if you make the assumption it's on time and is autonomous.
This reminds me of my old physics assignments:
"Assuming a perfectly spherical cow...."
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Anyone who gets into one of those robo taxis is asking for death.
Any sane government won't let them on the road until that is decidedly not the case.
Asking for a sane government is a big ask nowadays it seems though.
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The robo taxi isn't until 2026 if you make the assumption it's on time and is autonomous.
Tesla has said Full Self Driving is coming next year for like 9 straight years in a row, and the only thing that came out of that was "obviously FSD is a marketing term, only an idiot would have bought FSD and thought they get an autonomous vehicle"
Space X pushed the hyper loop when California pitched their idea of building high speed rail throughout the state, and once they gave space X a grant and cancelled their plans, he dropped the project.
Tesla's value comes from vibes and the potential of what some vaporware technology could be worth if they could actually build it.
I mean honestly, if Tesla could build an autonomous vehicle that could pay for itself in 1 year from taxi fares, why would they sell that to the public? They'd make way more keeping it to themselves or maybe franchising it out. A complete monopoly on the autonomous taxi industry sold for $45,000? Yeah, right.
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I shake my head at Tesla drivers and throw a hand job gesture to every wankpanzer I see. There isn't enough public shaming of fascists and their enablers.
Yesterday, my wife saw a cybertruck for the first time. She went "wtf. Is that fugly thing a cybertruck?" I guess the pictures didn't do it justice.
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what sort of scumbag could own tesla stock, or even buy a tesla in the last year or more, and still sleep at night?
Sociopaths. Money over ethics.
If you have a 401k, IRA, company pension, or any other type of traditional retirement accounts, you likely have some Tesla at least indirectly, and while you might not have direct voting rights, you would at a minimum have ownership of funds that have ownership of Tesla.
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On December 24 Tesla's shares went up by 7%. On December 17 they went down by 8%. Movement like this happens all the time, will we get headlines for each one? Overall, Tesla's stock price is still up 50% over the past year. I wouldn't consider this to be all that significant a drop yet. Let's see what happens with their upcoming product releases.
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