I hope they are, it'd be really nice if Trump dramatically underperformed the current polling.
I'd probably crack open a bottle of champagne, even.
this post was submitted on 23 Oct 2024
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You're missing the trick. The supposition here is that they're creating a false polling narrative to buttress their eventually allegations of election fraud. This will feed directly into another coup attempt.
I see the trick... but if all these polls are being falsely produced because Trump is actually ten points behind Harris and it's inconceivable that he could win... well, they'll still try and cheat the election but I'd much rather live in that universe rather than what seems to be our universe where the American people legitimately can't decide between a treasonous, narcissistic, felon and someone... not those things.
It'd really restore my faith in reality if most people actually saw Trump for what he is... I know they'll still try and steal the election even if Trump literally only gets five votes in the election and all of them are from people with the last name Trump but it's genuinely disturbing how close to fascism we are not even a century after giving the last batch of fascists a right trouncing.
It's worse than even that imo. I think even if he wins we'll see a coup attempt, because he's not playing the same game, he's trying to end the republic
Absolutely, when he beat Clinton in 2016 his infantile little bitch of an ego simply could not accept that he lost the popular vote. Remember those years of
"Yea Donny, somehow you won we all agree on th-"
'No but like these fucking democrats, see, these democrats found extra voters somewhere, they had to... I couldn't have lost the popular vote, everyone loves me! Immigrants, it had to be Immigrants... millions of immigrants that they snuck over the border to vote. Pelosi! She fucking loves immigrants... must have been immigrants, they're watching us when we pee, they vote illegally... They're watching us pee!'
"Okay Donny, but you know you won right, the popular vote doesn't even mat-"
'Lies. They lie. Lying Ted I call him. Won it I did. Yes, yes, won the popular vote. They love me. They LOVE ME! Everyone who doesn't love me... they don't exist, they can't, because everyone loves me... Mexicans, they must be Mexicans. Pelosi always sneaking around and watching me. They all love me. You know that right? They only love me.'
I may have paraphrased a bit but that's a pretty accurate summary of literally any press conference in his first year in office. Note to performer, please read the part of Donald as a Skaven.
I wpuld normally call such comparisons unkind but the fact of the matter is the Skaven are just as bad as Trump. Actually maybe he is worse than them since at least they are good at some things, plus they have Thanquil.
They're evil, but they're actually intelligent, unlike certain former presidents...
Somewhat intelligent, their evil has a strong tendency towards fucking them over and making them real stupid. Which admittedly is probably what the great horned rat wants.
skaven
Apt, considering he's trying to ratfuck the election
not even a century after giving the last batch of fascists a right trouncing.
Problem is we stopped a couple countries that went full tilt, but left it to fester and didn't hold the enablers to account.
They can try. They have fewer levers to get there this time. Biden won't just sit there without calling the National Guard.
Yes, they absolutely are. It's coup 2, electric boogaloo. Foreign actors are also rigging the betting markets. They are creating another narrative they can use to justify stealing the election.
If so that's pretty disastrous for Trump. A lot of people are worried about a 2016 repeat, Trump vastly outperforming the polls, so now a whole lot of people who usually just vote are donating and door knocking. Polls that are favorable for Trump just mobilize Harris supporters
Every outcome since 2016 has been in favor of Democrats. More so since 2022. I'm not worried at all.
You should be, because there's more than a 0% chance it happens, and when it does, it's likely the end of America as we know it.
Not enough people know that it really would be the end.
I fully believe that, but I also know the polls have been absolutely useless since 2016, and P2025 and Rowe are such massive issues, I expect the actual exit polls to be heavily in favor of Democrats.
The (independent) polls were generally good in 2022, it was the polls with a bias and the big aggregators who totally missed. Several of the aggregators who ignore clearly biased polls called a few races, like Fetterman, with high accuracy.
This time around they show Harris with a 0.5-2pt margin in PA, MI, WI, and NV. Trump with that same margin in NC, GA, AZ. I think that means that Harris is favored for the EC, but that we need turnout.
Uh, no they were not. Not even close.
Look at all the post-Roe states where abortion was on the ballot. Landslides for the amendments, and a +10 points minimum improvement for Dem candidates. I think Kansas even had a +20 swing towards Dem candidates, but I can find the exact number.
Polls have not been able to adjust to modern technology, and have never taken into account incoming new voters, the largest group in the country since 2000. Every election since 2016 specifically has blown out populous voting records.
You can't rely on technology affluent people to get accurate internet, cold calling, or questionnaire based answers. Polls are shit.
Harris has this. I'll come back here and dance for you if I'm wrong.
I think we might actually agree more than you imagine - I also think Harris is doing pretty damn amazing right now, and I also think it looks good for her.
I'm not suggesting the forecasts for things like the amendments were correct, they definitely missed, and hard. I'm saying they were wrong because they took in a lot of clearly biased inputs.
There were other polls that actually had a lot of this data in them, and showed a clear lean in the odds post-Roe. However, these polls were being weighted by aggregators against stuff like Rasmussen, and Trafalgar, which are absolute trash. The forecasters were applying weights they themselves invented to these polls and including the trash data, meaning it was trash data AND it was deliberately turned into something that biased the sample set towards a middle average.
What I'm saying is that cutting that chaff out of the results, and then being realistic about what a "+2 margin" means (it's actually pretty good) results in a wholly different picture than the aggregators are giving us. One where Harris is more or less the clear pick.
Anyway, having said all that - it really, really does come down to turnout on this one. Trump's base doesn't really falter, and it's around 65m votes every time. That can get flooded out but not without people showing up.
It's going to skew way harder for Harris than +2. Sit tight.
I'm not worried at all.
Why you gotta put that out into the universe?
Because I've looked at the actual voting trends over the past 4 years and not polls. Everyone in the media is fearing polls. Polls are no longer useful. The only people answering poll calls are elderly.
Harris has this on lock for the vote. Whatever Trump and his asshats have planned otherwise is a different story. I do still expect the Biden camp has an entire playbook at the ready since SCOTUS said president can basically do whatever they want. Waiting to see it.
I'm a little worried... My pants are dry, but I'm still a little worried.
When Trump gives his inauguration speech he's going to thank you because it was your jinx that put him over the line.
I don't think the polls are rigged.
I think they are straight up lying about the results.
Ya get more clicks if it's soooo close! Or make the headline vague to create uncertainty and anxiety. Clicks equals money.
Headline: "Poll says: One candidate is now losing in Pennsylvania!"
Don't care. Just vote.
Already did!
Yussssss
yes. next question.
all of these polling aggregation sites regardless of the quality of the the poll will include the data in their forecasts. how many poison pills do you have to put in the water supply before the entire thing is poisoned?
these operatives figured out well before the eggheads who refuse to question or change their methods that by flooding the zone with shit polls, they not only generate buzz for the results of the poll but they are poll by poll changing the reality that the lazy, access political media will breathlessly SCREAM IN ABSOLUTE TERROR that trump is gaining on harris. these junk polls are simply a method of simultaneous voter suppression and boosting on a race probably only really close in 3 states.
I know some of the aggregators put adjustments on right leaning pollsters. They've publicly talked about doing it. And it's not hard to see outliers when you look at all the polls released.
It also lays the ground work for election challenges
"The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases."
This has always been the thing that has me concerned. They may have fucked polls, but the aggregation methods have weights to shit pollsters so even if they did give shit polls, the overall result is still "accurate" (Kamala not doing well)
Another thing mentioned, I didn't actually consider, but is super fucked up:
They're trying to divert Democratic funding away from states by making them appear like a lost cause through shitty polling. Talk about absolute fucking scumbags...
The last thing mentioned is also infuriating in that Magoos will see a tight race that shows Trump slightly ahead, but if he loses they use that as evidence it was stolen!? So what the fuck happened with Hillarys 95% chance to win then!? Was that stolen? Oh sorry, silly me thinking similar logic should be used in similar situations... It's just whatever fits your narrative that is the only real valid thing, of course of course.... Ffs..
Consider this: given two options,
- 10 polls with no bias, weighted by only past performance
- 20 polls, half biased, weighted by an arbitrary secondary metric to remove bias (which only trends the data towards an average)
Which do you suppose would be more reliable?
This is the paradox of polling, there's no way to tell. Either could be better, both could be wrong, both could be right. There is no such thing as a poll with no bias, because the only way to take a tryly unbiased poll is to know the outcome of the race a priori.
Or maybe its Maybelline...
I would be very surprised if they were not.
Easier to claim election interference when he loses by a lot, but the polls should the race really close, it's all a setup for his loss
we danced in the street all day when he lost last time, and we'll probably do it again this time
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