this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2024
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[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

45% of American voters will vote for Trump even if every accusation against him is true. 45% of American voters will vote for Harris even if every accusation against her is true.

It stopped being about issues decades ago. It's about ideologies.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

It's actually more like 45% of American voters will vote for Trump if every accusation against him is true, so he can say and do whatever bullshit he wants, and 45% of American voters wouldn't vote for Harris even if every accusation against her was true, so she has to keep her promises in line with reality. You have the portion of society that is gamed by the system, and the portion of society that is aware, and those that are aware are much harder to please.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 6 hours ago

Guys k-12 education is literally Zionist and grade 8 genocided grade 9.

You're just a Zionist if you support expanding k-12 education.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 21 hours ago (2 children)

It's entirely the EC.

Biden won by ten million votes, and it was still a clencher because some idjit in kansas thinks the candidates sucking Pennsylvania's fracking drill all election keeps their interests represented.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

If it was 70-30, like it should be, the electoral college wouldn't be relevant.

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[–] [email protected] 27 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago) (3 children)

Because Trump is energizing his base with lies and propaganda designed to get them angry and motivated, while Kamala has squandered the enthusiasm her base had for her by pursuing disaffected center-right never-Trumpers. It's basically the same strategy Hillary Clinton ran in 2016 and it's terrifying to watch the Democrats gamble on it yet again.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago (2 children)

Those semi-con swing voters are deciding this election though. Nobody else is "on the fence" right now.

Jesus christ, we saw two assassination attempts on Trump and it didn't change polls. While polls are trash and not to be trusted, they still would have changed if there was some large amount of moderate undecided voters.

And lets not forget H. Clinton won the popular vote by millions of votes. Yes, the Dems are addicting to losing and make the worst decisions in order to appeal to the most useless people, but they're also playing against a stacked deck here.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 hours ago

I broke this down in another comment, but there's really no evidence that this moderate strategy will work. Democrats win when their base turns out, and they lose when their base isn't motivated. Watching Harris campaign with Liz Cheney doesn't motivate the base. They may pick up some moderate voters in PA (though, again, it didn't work in 2016, so there's no reason to think it will work now), but it's not going to matter if she loses Michigan because of a hard-right position on Israel.

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

The Harris campaign must pursue those voters in order to win. They are the voters who live in battleground states. Pursuing a hard-left strategy the way everyone on lemmy wants is a guaranteed loss.

This is the problem with the non-proportional EC makeup. Unfortunately it’s not going to change any time soon because the party who wins got there on the old system.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago (3 children)

Thank you, this is a spectacular example of how Democrats use faulty logic and bad faith arguments to defeat themselves. I'm going to break it down for everybody so we can all understand why they keep losing.

The Harris campaign must pursue those voters in order to win. They are the voters who live in battleground states.

This is confidently stated as fact, but not only is there no evidence to support this statement, there's strong evidence against it. This is, at its core, the same statement that Chuck Schumer made when predicting a Democratic sweep in 2016:

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia. And you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin."

Not only did this strategy fail spectacularly in 2016, we're watching it fail in 2024; Harris has recently dropped in all crucial swing states. The only thing backing up this argument is its proponents' self-confidence (or self-delusion).

Moving on:

Pursuing a hard-left strategy the way everyone on lemmy wants is a guaranteed loss.

Here, we leave behind false assertions and move into bad-faith arguments. Notice how the user completely ignored the voters I mentioned (her base) in order to pivot to what they think is an easier target: Lemmy users. Sure, if Kamala Harris came out in support of the abolition of capitalism, she'd lose, but no (or at least no one serious) is saying she'd win if she did.

What people are actually saying is much more tangible and and reasonable: sharpen your criticism of Israel and increase your Palestinian outreach if you want to win Michigan; don't just talk about the middle-class, get your working-class base out with transformative social programs (like Biden proposed in 2020; stop hanging out with Liz Fucking Cheney, for Christ sake. These are all criticisms the user sidestepped by creating a false dichotomy between the, "hard-left," and Harris' current strategy.

Finally:

This is the problem with the non-proportional EC makeup. Unfortunately it’s not going to change any time soon because the party who wins got there on the old system.

This is unrelated, but incorrect. The Democrats have won the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections; they would abolish the Electoral College in a heartbeat, but it would require a constitutional amendment, which they'll never get passed. It has nothing to do with the fact that, "the party who wins got there on the old system."

Anyway, this is how the Democrats continuously fail. First, they convinced themselves that the only way to win is to get centrist voters, even though evidence doesn't bear that out. Next, they dismiss criticism of this strategy as, "far-left." Finally, if they lose (which is looking alarming possible this election), they will blame leftists for not supporting them strongly enough, thus allowing them to continue the same strategy next election without self-reflection...assuming there is a next election, which no longer feels like a given.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 hours ago
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[–] [email protected] 7 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (2 children)

its because their corporate owners don't want to have to implement left wing economic policies for the good of the nation. unfortunately we'll continue to have fascist bogey men until people start holding dems accountable.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

It's because the media, who teach most people how to think, is mostly owned by corporations who benefit from pro-corpo status quo policies.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

media is just an amplifier. but yes you could make such an argument; though its deeper than that.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 hours ago

Obviously it's the sort of thing one could write doctoral theses about, but I reckon that much is not contentious.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago

There's also the fact that this, "centrist liberal," strategy worked exactly once in 1992 (and that may have had more to do with Ross Perot than anything else), but now there's an entire pundit and strategist class built around it. Most of these people don't mind losing elections if it means they can keep their jobs.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago) (5 children)

this race...

this race?

The past three Republican presidents saw a job growth of 1 million, the past three Democratic presidents 51 million. Now sure, the president doesn't define every aspect of the economy, but my god that big a discrepancy is not accidental. As someone not from America, I don't understand why this race is so close, but why any race involving the Republicans, even outside of Trump, would be. I'll consider Romney an exception though, but he doesn't seem representative of the Republican Party before or after him.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 9 hours ago

Because the democrats are doing everything they can to lose. They don’t message well, and they keep running to the right.

Most Americans want leftist policies, but the Democrats refuse to capitalize on that. Kamala is toting a right wing immigration bill thinking it’s going to help her.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 20 hours ago

As John Stewart would say: well I'm still undecided... Cause a horse kicked my head.

[–] [email protected] 75 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Every time some ridiculous shit like this happens, I remember when Howard Dean yelled a little too loud and that invalidated his entire political career.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 7 hours ago

Been thinking this thought a lot lately. IIRC he was a decent man and likely would have been a decent president - but god forbid he get a little excited at a rally. Meanwhile, Trump has proven that literally nothing he could do or has done would change the mind of his voters. He could start and end every speech with a Howard Dean scream, and no one would even bat an eye.

 

(And I seem to also recall hearing that the isolated microphone of his scream that we've all heard a hundred times did not reflect how it even sounded at the event.)

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Even worse, apparently we only got the audio from his mic and it was an appropriately loud EEEEAAAAGH given the audience volume

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[–] [email protected] 91 points 1 day ago (15 children)

it's close because racism, jeebus, and guns. it seems like it should be more than that, but it isn't. broke uneducated GOP voters literally don't care about anything except for some combination of the above 3 things, because that's what the 1% propaganda machine told them to do

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 23 hours ago

The race is close because Republicans have built something better than a platform when you're dealing with ignorant masses.

They built a brand.

[–] [email protected] 58 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (6 children)

Most conservatives believe state education isn't anything more than brainwashing against conservative ideas.

They're 100% correct. Education tends to make one confront reality and live in the real world, a very un-conservative concept.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 9 hours ago

Sucks for them that reality has a liberal bias.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 10 hours ago

You talking about the place where people pledge their allegiance to a flag every day?

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