It only matters in the swing states. The ones where they're trying to purge the voter registrations, sometimes successfully. The system is broken.
this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2024
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The Republican campaign strategy: “cheat to win, win to cheat.”
Down ballot matters everywhere.
Only if people are allowed to vote when they show up
That’s correct. The polls are still very close where it counts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-michigan-wisconsin.html
“There’s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: [Trump’s] once formidable advantage in the electoral college is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking,” Cohn argued.
I'm in a red state. I'm in a neighborhood with a lot of of retired Republicans. I don't see a single Trump sign, but there is a growing count of Harris signs, including "Republicans for Harris." ymmv
Even in the strongest hold out states, they can be flipped if enough people vote. It can also set up for a flip next election. Vote anyway.
Vote anyway. Be part of a sweep.
Vote for every office, not just the president
In TX, Theodore "I left my dog snowflake at home while the state was freezing and without power for a family trip to Cancun then blamed my wife and children for the trip" Cruz is currently up for defeat.
He only just barely won against Beto O'rourke last time. Colin Allred is closing in and needs all the help he can get.
I would love nothing more than to see that snake pick his bags and fuck the fuck off.
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I think she'll be busy enough with one job
Make it Trump's most embarrassing loss to date!
Followed by a jail sentence!
A sweep will also make it harder for the inevitable attempt of republicans to invalidate the election.
end this silver spoon narcissist retiree's bullshit. Please vote
oh man I remember how hilary was going to win by such a large margin in those polls.
kamala harris isn't hillary, though. I heard a recording of myself from like 2005 and a someone was saying "yeah hillary clinton can unite people" and I said "..against her" and I barely cared about politics back then.
the gop has made inroads on the young white dude demographic, largely because of incels. Its more of a tossup for that reason and the electoral college (which lets all agree needs some kind of proportional rank choice fix, or to be dropped entirely for popular vote)
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Does no one remember Jame Comey, Director of the FBI, coming out just before the election and saying they were reopening the investigation regarding her email server?
The polls were right, at the time.
Except Professor Alan Licthman predicted Hillary would lose then and has predicted a Kamala Harris win. He actually uses a scientific method for his predictions.
Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.
Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton... only to predict she'd lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn't. He then changed his model.
Also I'm not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down... Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.
arbitrary interpretation
They aren't as arbitrary as they seem, it's just that the media don't go into the full detail.
For example, key 2 is actually "The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes", which is clearly true
Furthermore, the entire point of this method is that it ignores opinion polls. So it makes no difference whether the public actually wanted a primary contest or not. Likewise, it doesn't matter whether scandals have "lost meaning".
His entire methodology is contingent on history repeating itself. But we know we live in times of historical firsts that defy extrapolation.
With key 2 it's less about the definition and more about the allotted weight of importance. Like, imagine if the DNC simply said that "we are unilaterally awarding all delegate votes to Biden and skipping a Primaries voting process for our Democratic voters." Yes, the key would still be True, but would that mean jack shit? Not really. And again, Incumbency is more a liability when the incumbent President's approval rating matches Jimmy Carter. His Charisma keys are another example of subjective interpretation and which itself is clearly reflective of opinion polls.
For all our sake, I hope he's right. But his prediction is just as if not more useless than the aggregation of A+ polls in moments of time that can actually adapt to changing circumstances, including things like impactful scandals, military success / failures, and social unrest.
At the end of the day Perception is Reality; even if the economy is doing well in short and long-term on paper, we again unfortunately live in unprecedented times where that is not being felt by the actual people who are, you know, going to the ballot box.
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I saw an interview with him and he gives off quack vibes to me. 🤷🏼♀️
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Polls use scientific methods too, that doesn't mean they aren't wildly incorrect from time to time.
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For fucks sake this should not be tight or close. It should be a gods damned CURB STOMP that destroys the Republican party for the rest of history DAMMIT.
Don’t trust polls. Vote.
Doesn't matter. Go vote. Complacency gave the orange toddler his first term. Just sayin.
Don't fucking listen to the polls. GO VOTE!
We need to win by a lot more than razor thin margins, republicans are going to try and steal this one.
And you want to win by a huge margin so they can actually implement good policies, and not have to barter with Republicans and the likes of Manchin.
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Let's make sure it matters
Find how to register to vote for where you are
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
GO VOTE
Shutup and vote.
Yesterday, I saw a few of donnie's loyalists standing out on a corner at a place with steady traffic, trying to get cars and pedestrians to honk/give them a thumb's up. In the hot sun. No idea if they were paid or not. They were way up in years and probably could be doing almost anything else but that. But these people love dimbulb donnie, no matter how much of a disaster he'll be. The worse off it is for the country, they'll cheer it on, as long as they believe donnie is going to hurt the right people.
Just made me look forward to filling out my ballot all the more. But definitely, everyone: go vote. Don't believe the polls.
As a non-american this scares me.
What the fuck does Trump have to offer to the average citizen? He is basing his campaign on
- tax cuts for the extra rich
- iMmIgRaNtS (who Harris wants to stop anyways)
- licking the ass of Putin and Nethanyau
Unfortunately, politics is teams sports in this country. Too many people are concerned with their side winning rather than what is best for the country or even for themselves. The propaganda machine has pushed people to support a small subset of issues as the biggest issues and these are often not the issues that actually have any impact on the day-to-day lives of most Americans. Critical thinking is not part of the discourse anymore for a large percentage, just rhetoric and slogans.
You're not mentioning racism and sexism, which is at least as important as what you're describing.
As an American, this scares me.
I try to share this site when national pole articles come out, because these are the only numbers that matter in our election. It doesn't matter how blue California is if they rat-fuck the elections in the swing states.
Trumps pov is easy to understand, and so he’s easy to buy. You only need to stroke Trumps ego and speak his language and he’s on your side. That’s why Republican politicians think they can control him, except he’s too neurotic and unstable, likely because of narcissism made worse by dementia.
No one really votes for Republicans, that’s why they have to gerrymander and keep the electoral college alive. There’s like maybe 35%-37% of the American pop. which really supports their pov. The swing states are only ever an issue because of voter disenfranchisement, not because people actually swing. Very few people actually swing vote.
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