this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2024

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391

Harris leads Trump in polls, but remains an underdog due to the Electoral College (www.msnbc.com)

submitted 2 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 112 points 2 months ago (5 children)

As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we're at...

Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.

Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.

Let's look at the map:

So, of the "Undecideds", PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.

PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.

So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.

If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.

Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.

[–] [email protected] 51 points 2 months ago

God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.

[–] [email protected] 39 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I can't believe it's this close and I hate that Harris is starting to slip in some states. My heart can't handle another Trump presidency.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Then make plans to move out of the country. A close 2024 win for liberalism without solid leads in Congress means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Moving out of the country is impossible for 99% of the people who would want to.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Holy Kornacki, thank you for putting that together.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago

I don't even have a big board!

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 months ago

jordanlund is a Lemminal treasure.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I'm starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don't want to call it bias, it's just a blind spot that their model isn't getting all the input for.

Of course it's not like anyone else is doing a better job either.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Polling is inherently problematic every time you see they polled "likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters".

If they're self selecting who they consider to be "likely", it's going to have a skewed result.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Likely voters are those that have voted before, that's what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they're the more accurate people to be polling.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

And discounts first time voters.

Some even only count people who voted in the last 2 elections.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago

Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.

Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it's a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.

[–] [email protected] 59 points 2 months ago (5 children)

Hope she wins, and pushes through something to dismantle the collage. We need ranked choice.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a good first step: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago (3 children)

This is just a bandaid and the conservative justices on the supreme court will strike it down for some stupid reason.

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[–] vaultdweller013 17 points 2 months ago (3 children)

We cant dismantle the electoral college easily, but what we can do is revoke the law putting caps on the number of representatives and electoral college votes. It wouldnt be perfect but it may be enough to knee cap the GOP for awhile. Also pass a law that allows reps to vote remotely from home offices in their districts.

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[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 months ago (6 children)

Unless she gets the presidency, the Democrats roll up supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a majority of states put in Democratic governors, this isn't happening. IE: it isn't happening.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Don't hold your breath. The system works for the right people

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

"The right people" I see what you did there.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago

Even without ranked choice it would be an upgrade to be rid of the college

[–] [email protected] 59 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Sounds familiar

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Which is good. It will prevent complacency, by either the Harris campaign or her supporters.

She really is the underdog in this race. The deck's stacked against her.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 2 months ago (1 children)

No. It’s not good. It means we are going to get screwed by the electoral college bullshit again.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

You misunderstand. The fact that the EC is undemocratic bullshit isn't what's good. What's good is that we're staying aware of the problem. We know there's a not insignificant chance Harris ends up Clinton 2.0. So this time, we have a chance to avoid complacency.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 2 months ago (3 children)

The fact that it’s this close further erodes my faith in humanity. That’s not good.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago

Being motivated doesn't change 300 year old bullshit laws that remove the democratic power of of all but a handful of swing states voting.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Cat ladies doing our part! 💪😻

[–] [email protected] 28 points 2 months ago

Don’t stop. The popular vote isn’t enough, and Trump is still a slight favorite to win.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Cat gentleman doing my part! 💪😻

[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 months ago

Cat doing my part! 💪😻

[–] transientpunk 14 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Cat theydie doing my part! 💪😻

[–] [email protected] 33 points 2 months ago (3 children)

If Diaper wins I'm done. Just move to the boonies and just go full media blackout until 2028 or when the zombies show up

[–] [email protected] 28 points 2 months ago (2 children)

The boonies are full of red hats. That's the last place you'll want to be

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Deep cover infiltration!

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago

(offer not available to all melanin counts)

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em?

[–] [email protected] 22 points 2 months ago (1 children)

If trump wins, what makes you think there will be an election in 2028 ?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 months ago

He's been pretty open about their not being another need to vote

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[–] [email protected] 23 points 2 months ago

I really hate our electoral college system. Giving undue privilege to certain regions, most especially rural areas, is exceedingly stupid and just holds this country back so very much. It'd be one thing if more weight was given to the areas that the most going for them - as far as GDP/brain power/influence and so on. But instead, it's the opposite.

Apologists for the slavery-era holdover that is the EC will say "but the candidates will just mostly go to big cities" - yeah, NO KIDDING. That's where the fucking people are. That's who the government serves. Not land. Right now the candidates mostly campaign in "battleground states" because of the stupid and backward EC. Instead of trying to get the most votes across the entire nation.

Ridiculous.

Our Senate and House are not that much better than the way we choose Presidents, either. The population of states is not given proper consideration, even for the House.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 2 months ago (4 children)

"person may lose the election by getting the most votes" is this even a thing outside the US?

i know winning without a majority vote is a thing in multiparty systems where the winner will have plurality instead... but having the majority vote and losing is just fucking insane to me.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Unfortunately yes, it’s huge problem with first past the post systems.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

how?

i was talking about electoral college. never heard a party receiving a majority vote losing in the first past the post system.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

A good example is the 1981 election in New Zealand, where the Labour Party won more votes but the National Party won more seats and formed the government.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Whether it's possible for a party to win a majority of votes but lose an election, in a first-past-the-post system, will depend on the how the electoral districts are drawn, the voter turnout in each district, and the geographical distribution of the majority. The system itself does allow this to happen.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

i was talking about general elections. usually the popular vote determines it, no matter where the votes come from. you're still talking about electoral college, not fptp.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 2 months ago

Empty land doesn't vote. But it can get you extra representation per capita, somehow.

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