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this post was submitted on 02 Sep 2024
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Hey look, it's the Russian State media. I love this picture
The SECOND Russia uses nukes, it's OVER. Russia's entire existence ceases to exist, as EVERY country will nuke Russia. It won't be WWIII.
WWIII would imply two set of countries of roughly equal might, and each side has several countries fighting together.
This would be more like EVERYBODY vs Russia. And they wouldn't last more than a few days.
The problem is Russia has the very real capability of really screwing up a good chunk of the world before they get wiped off the map. It's kind of scary if im being honest.
I would have believed you a few years ago.
At this point I think Putin has to have serious doubts that he could use a nuke and have it actually work. He's up against both western tech and his own corruption.
Yeah the problem is he only needs one to work. Even if it's a dud Russia being nuked into oblivion will have long term ramifications for the entire globe
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Do they really?
They made a lot of claims about their military capabilities. However their war with Ukraine has shown those to largely be lies propped up to hide that their oligarchs have emezzled the money.
I'm starting to wonder how nuclear capable they actually are these days.
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Nukes and ICBMs are extremely complex devices. They also require extremely specialist servi e work to remain functional. Even worse, the only people who can actually check that work are the ones doing it.
Russia hasn't detonated a nuke in decades. I wouldn't be surprised if most of their arsenal are now duds. The money embezzled, while boxes were ticked. Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if many of their ICBMs just wouldn't launch.
Russia's nuclear capabilities are likely a paper tiger, and Putin likely knows this. Until they try and use them, they are scary. If they try and they fail, they are in a VERY bad situation.
Putin is many things, but he's not stupid. It would take a LOT more pressure from nato for him to even consider using nukes.
It's kind of funny to me that a significant reason Russia is in its current predicament is because of rampant corruption. Putin runs the country like a Mafia state and then gets all surprised Pikachu Face when it becomes apparent that his underlings just stole all the money instead of using it to maintain their weapons stockpile, which is now aging and dilapidated.
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Uhh, maybe 2 decades ago, they sold all those weapons on Wish.com, where do you think all those super-yachts came from?
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I think even China and India would sever any remaining ties to russia if russia uses a nuke.
They would, as Russia is only a useful idiot and a link to natural resources for both of those countries.
China would just wait until it's over and then pick through the remains of Russia. Probably try to claim a big chunk of southern Russia using some excuse or another.
Well it's not ~~southern Russia's~~ northern China's fault that some mad man in Moscow used a nuke. China will just be generous and help lead the clean up in wonderful north north China.
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If Russia uses their nukes, about 30 minuites later there won't be a Russia left to sever ties with.
Nato will write a sternly worded letter. Biden will SLAM putin for it. The EU will try to pass chat control.
I don't think that everyone is ready to cry right after reading this comment. Pls delete
Ironically Biden was the one who knew Russia would attack Ukraine and spent MONTHS preparing Ukraine for it, which is why it wasn’t over in 3 days. We have also prepped for nuclear escalation. This is what real leaders do. Trump would just continue to give Putin a blow job.
We don’t need to nuke them even, we can just use conventional munitions to fuck up every military installation they have to rubble.
And chuck a few Tomahawks at Kremlin to be sure
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Dog continues to bark.
Putin, you can't invade another country killing thousands of their civilians and then get upset when that country comes into yours and starts taking your territory. Using a nuke here doesn't make you look strong, it makes you look extremely weak.
Tankies: is this western imperialism?
No they won't. If Putin isn't a complete idiot, he knows that using nukes will be the end of Russia.
It's worse than that. Russia knows they can never use nukes preemptively, it's why they have their policy.
Russia is one of the most centralized countries in the world, everything revolves around Moscow, all political and economic power, all administration, without Moscow they know Russia is dead.
The whole point of a nuke is that it eats cities, their paranoia that Moscow would be hit during the cold War was extreme, they put incredible amounts of money into air and missile defenses and demanded carve outs to the abm treaties specifically for Moscow.
Because Russia isn't a country, it's an empire ruled from Moscow, and it Moscow was destroyed it would instantly cease to be a country.
Basically, if things reached a point where Moscow's control over the rest of Russia was at risk, that's when you'd see them start to negotiate.
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Bark bark bark
In Putin's eyes:
Putin = Russia.
So, "threatens the existence of the state" means "I might personally lose power over this".
It wasn't that long ago troops marched towards Putin, and while he meant to teach the lesson "go against me and die" what he really taught everyone was "next time don't negotiate and don't believe anything I say".
All it takes is letting some fall guy with a personal grudge against Putin get close to him with a gun.
Everyone gets to pretend that they didn't want him dead, and the fall guy gets killed immediately after but got to settle his score first.
Without Putin the focus goes back on making money, and Russia stops invading people and threatening nuclear Armageddon.
The people around him are definitely considering if he's worth more as a myth than a man at this point.
Putin has no endgame.
There is no timeline where he can step down and live peacefully.
His one in a million is to conquer enough of Ukraine and somehow be allowed to keep it - but that’s not happening unless Donald wins the election.
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True. Dictators like Putin don't usually retire, alive at least and the end is not usually pretty, so he hangs on, and on.
And we can assume that these nukes, unlike the conventional armory, have been maintained since the Cold War and not sold off to private interests?
I seem to recall a big kerfuffle around a decade and a half back about Russia not actually knowing what became of a whole bunch of nuclear weapons in the aftermath of the USSR collapsing. There were also rumors of Soviet nukes being sold off to various unsavory groups. It really wouldn't surprise me to find out there was some truth to that.
I have also heard that ICBMs and the like require regular expensive and specialized maintenance in order to remain functional. Knowing what we now know about Russia what do you figure the odds are that some general or other decided those maintenance funds would be better used to line their pockets since the odds of actually using those nukes were so low?
Almost all nuclear weapons require quite a bit of expertise to maintain over time. If they got sold off 30 years ago, chances are 99% that they’re mostly good for lighting off as a dirty bomb and not much else at this point.
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Russia: nuclear terrorism is all we have left.
Millennials: don't threaten us with a good time.
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Russia: We're updating the conditions required for the West to glass us when we get too big for our britches
What the fuck Russia?? How hard are you planning on rattling that sabre?
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Why do these guys allways look like their family is being held hostage or something?
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lol. russia goes on drunken invasion spree of their neighbors and feel they have to sober up their neighbors.
If their nuclear bombers went airborne the second Ukraine troops crossed their borders people would've taken them seriously. It would've shown how serious they were. But here we are, weeks after the invasion onto Russian soil, and their strong man argument is changing a few words on paper. It's not very impressive or convincing.
Oh come on Putin, no one is gonna use nukes… don’t be a bitch.
Bark bark bark
I guess they're relaxing the policy, since they've hinted previously that they viewed attacks on Russian territory to be a threat to the existence of Russia and would use nukes in response. But they didn't.
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