These guys should avoid drinking tea and being close to windows in the next few months.
this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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Nah this is probably the kremlin's preferred line. Admitting they have no idea what the fuck is going on looks way worse.
Best part about this is that for Russia to become competent requires a total 180 of their culture. They need to encourage freedom of thought, questioning authority, and the courage and capability to react independently. Until they become better people, their military and industry will always suck.
The other issue is that a lot of these "better people" left the country ages ago
So anyway, putin, Ukraine will be in Moscow demolishing the Kremlin next month.
....one month later... Ukrainian forces have just destroyed the Kremlin, but don't worry, they knew for a month!
I hope it works out well for Ukraine, but I think we won't be able to accurately gauge the impact this offensive has for weeks to months even. While Ukraine is pushing into Russia, russian troops are pushing in Donbas.
This isn't an operation for land gains, it's political.
It's a huge embarrassment for Putin and might lead him to overreact and pull way more troops into Kursk than needed, thus freeing up capacity elsewhere.
Also, the myth of the mighty mighty Russian army gets kind of damaged, if basically a second Wagner convoy can just take large chunks of borderlands.
Putin wants to be seen as strong. And this shows how weak he actually is.
Yeah but for how long? The troops the Ruzzians are flooding into Kursk right now simply aren't up to the job. They "may" be able to stop the Ukrainians at their newly prepared defences but that's not a given. Putler can not allow the Ukrainians to stay in Kursk and, realistically, the only way he had of forcibly dislodging them will be to redeploy troops from the Donbas.
That is the question I want the asnwer to the most. Will Russia get away with containing the Ukrainian advance with only the troops they have on hand or do they need fo pull troops from the Donbas.
Personally, I think the gambit is to pull troops from Donbas and then trounce the convoys en route, while they’re on the road. Ukraine has those new F16’s, and I think forcing Russia to move in ways they haven’t planned for or along routes that aren’t heavily covered with air defenses is the goal.
But I mean - I’m an armchair commentator. I have no expertise, just random facts I want to fit together a certain way because it would be satisfying. I hope this strategy is successful to Ukraine in whatever metric they’re hoping for success.
Know better than to be in Kursk?