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"If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is real risk that his aggression will not end there. Our support is not charity. It is an investment in our security," - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (streamable.com)
submitted 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
37 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

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Source: https://t.me/pravdaGerashchenko_en/29597

"If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is real risk that his aggression will not end there. Our support is not charity. It is an investment in our security," - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

"The only way to reach a just and lasting solution is to convince President Putin that they will not win on the battlefield," @jensstoltenberg continued.

"And the only way to ensure that President Putin realises that he is not winning on the battlefield is to continue to support Ukraine."

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[–] [email protected] 44 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (4 children)

Here's a not entirely implausible scenario:

  1. Putin 'wins' in Ukraine.
  2. Trump wins or 'wins' the election.
  3. President Trump (again) says he won't protect European NATO allies.
  4. NATO is effectively dead. The US nuclear umbrella no longer protects Europe.
  5. An emboldened Putin, engages in constant provocations and distractions.
  6. Some EU members are forced to drastically increase defense spending. Others come to the conclusion that acquiring a nuclear deterrent is now a necessity. Populist Putin verstehers win elections in some European countries, in part thanks to support from an emboldened Kremlin, promising to reduce defense spending. The EU project effectively dies. Europe is divided.
  7. A large part of the EU now kowtows to China.
  8. Because Europe is weakened, Putin continues to cause provocations and a miscalculation is made OR Russia deliberately invades the Suwalki gap (which is already indefensible now), thereby connect Kaliningrad with Russia. Putin's allies have regularly suggested that this is part of the plan.
  9. Europe is now at war with Russia. The US does not intervene, because of Trump or his isolationist successor.
  10. Europe is weakened from decades of underinvestment, weapons caches are depleted having supported Ukraine, Europe hasn't had enough time (or will) to properly re-arm, Europe is divided, it is not clear who will protect who.
  11. Certain European countries feel existentially threatened. They have no conventional military response to Russian aggression. Russia is making steady gains.
  12. Some European countries still have a non-conventional military response.
  13. A nuclear war starts in Europe.
  14. Most importantly for American readers, this significantly raises fuel prices.
  15. Half the population blames a long dead Biden and soy based diets.
[–] [email protected] 22 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I almost completely agree with you. Except the last point. We'll blame who's ever in charge at the moment. Just like how Trump's legacy fucked up our current situation, but we'll blame Biden because he's at the helm. Imo American short sightedness is the root cause of all of this.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

That's because Americans are dumb. You should be more like us Europeans and blame foreigners, migrants and supranational institutions like the EU which are preventing our magnificent national politicians from putting 'our' people first. /s

sigh

[–] [email protected] 4 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

\1. I don't see a scenario that would have Putin's win in Ukraine, even if he conquers the whole country, have him in a more geopolitically advantageous position that he was before 2014. Before 2014 Ukraine was a staunch Russian ally, almost like Belarus. The current situation is like if a Russia-aligned PM got elected in Canada, the US declared war, and would still be fighting having lost most of its army over almost a decade.

But aside from that let me go doomer even harder.

2-4. That would almost certainly result in a civil war or a coup in a very short amount of time. As soon as NATO is not keeping the world order, global commerce, thus the value of the dollar as a reserve currency for global trade up, the US economy will enter a never-before-seen recession, possible hyperinflation, which Trump will need to deflect from. My money is war on Mexico or Cuba. Or both.

5-8. There is a big chance that France would make good on their policy of first strike with their nuclear weapons before Russian soldiers would get too comfortable on European soil. China and the US join in since the Russians start shooting everyone out of force of habit. The Earth is now uninhabitable.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 11 months ago (1 children)

France has been ambivalent about deploying nuclear weapons for anything other than defense of La Patrie, perhaps strategically so. There is also a very real chance of a far right take-over in France, they're in the pocket of Russia. The far left likely is too. France is unreliable.

The UK however has been quite explicit about guaranteeing eastern Europe. The problem is that Putin consistently underestimates their resolve, and in the event that Ukraine falls, may make the calculation that the UK wouldn't respond.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

That sounds way too familiar for comfort.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Just one correction. Ukraine was an EU ally and in their pipeline for joining. Yanukovych pulling a flip to sign treaties with Russia instead is what instigated the Maidan uprising.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

My bad.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

No problem. Most people weren't following Eastern European stuff back then and there's been a ton of propaganda thrown around since.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

Yeah I was living in Eastern Europe back then so no excuse, but I guess most people don't follow neighbouring countries' politics. For example I have no idea what the political landscape in Romania is.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

This is brilliant, exactly what I was thinking. Knowing russians and Russia very closely, this is a very likely scenario if Russia prevails in the next few months.

Rewarding Russia now is bringing much more war very soon. Unfortunately there is a disagreement on this fact even between well-intended people who genuinely want peace.

[–] WindowsEnjoyer 2 points 11 months ago

I just can't imagine that so many americans want Trump to win and suck each others dick with Putin. Like, yeah, let your good old enemy get stronger, conquer Europe and....simply get stronger? Is that what americans want? Stronger Russia?

[–] [email protected] 39 points 11 months ago

"Just this one thing, because it's rightfully mine, but then you have nothing to fear from me."

--Putin in Ukraine, 2014

"Just this one thing, because it's rightfully mine, but then you have nothing to fear from me."

--Putin in Ukraine 2022

"Just this one thing, because it's rightfully mine, but then you have nothing to fear from me."

--Putin at your doorstep, near future

[–] [email protected] 30 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

A lot of people either never saw or have forgotten the statements and clues that Russia does not plan to stop.

They've repeatedly said they want to take back the Baltic countries. That's why there's an American unit stationed there now. Invasion plans included Moldova. Every border country except Hungary has reported Russian attempts to create civil unrest.

It's obvious the Russians think they can avoid an article 5 declaration by having a country "voluntarily" leave NATO and join CSTO. This was in fact their plan for Ukraine, just with the EU instead. Their puppet got elected with massive amounts of misinformation, a vulnerable incumbent (his corruption was exposed), and promises to keep the country in the process of joining the EU. It was the reversal of joining the EU to instead sign treaties with Russia that triggered the Maidan. And then Putin reacted with Crimea and the Donbas region.

That's also part of a very old Russian playbook meant to keep countries from joining NATO. Because NATO doesn't allow countries to join if they have territorial disputes going on. That's why so many Eastern European countries have territorial disputes with Russian aligned separatists.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 11 months ago (1 children)

You're completely correct. That said, and being Finnish, they can fucking try to bring it. We even have the correct amount of snow atm.

Joking aside, nobody sane wants ww3, but if we had to we'd show them another thing altogether.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago

Finns keeping the cocktails ready

[–] DaCrazyJamez 26 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Did Hitler stop at the sudetenland? Did he stop at Poland? Putin is following his playbook play by play, why would he stop?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It's almost depressing how well the world is mimicking the years leading up to WW2. I wonder what our Poland (trigger for allies to join war) will be.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Chamberlain has long been seen as an idiot for appeasement. But we now know that when Chamberlain negotiated a deal with Hitler in Munich, his generals were secretly advising him to delay for a year, so they could have a while longer to prepare for war. For example:

However, the Royal Air Force had two major weapons systems in the works: better interceptors (Hurricanes and Spitfires) and especially radar. They promised to counter the German bombing offensive but were not yet ready and so appeasement was necessary to cause a delay. Specifically, regarding the fighters, the RAF warned the government in October 1938 that the German Luftwaffe bombers would probably get through: "the situation... will be definitely unsatisfactory throughout the next twelve months".

Now look what our leaders are doing now? They've failed to drastically increase spending. They're failing to support Ukraine. They're often weaker than Chamberlain.

I'm deeply pessimistic that we'll be able to pull our thumbs out of our collective arses in time. And that's a huge problem, because strength is the only way to deter someone like Putin.

Not that Putin will actually win a war with NATO, or even against what remains of NATO in the event of a second Trump presidency and US withdrawal from NATO, but it's very likely to escalate, cause massive casulties, and perhaps even lead to a limited nuclear exchange.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 11 months ago

That is the truth. It's damn important that we do keep support going.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 11 months ago

That's not a risk, that's a certainty.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 11 months ago

It would be fucking unsurprisingly depressing if pootin can just hold the breath for longer than "democratic governments".

[–] ArbitraryValue 12 points 11 months ago (4 children)

Not just an investment but a really good one, with the cost in blood being paid by someone else. I don't understand why the usually hawkish Republicans don't see this. Is it just because Biden supports it? I wonder if they would be demanding intervention in Ukraine if Biden had decided to stay neutral...

[–] [email protected] 27 points 11 months ago

I don't understand why the usually hawkish Republicans don't see this.

You seriously think they don't see it? They're all either fully compromised or largely funded by Russia. These people aren't well-meaning citizens doing their best for America, they are fully loyal to Russia and all of this is a part of Russia's well-understood and plainly stated plan.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 11 months ago

they have been bought and paid for by Russia

[–] [email protected] 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Liberals, and actual patriots, see what's happening in Ukraine and say, "This is terrible! It's an unprovoked attack on a sovereign nation!"

Fascists see it as, "Hey there sexy mama. You wanna kill all those 'other' people?"

The alt right has firmly placed itself as a voting bloc within the Republican party so yeah....fascist gonna fascism.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago

I think their weird reversal on Ukraine mostly revolves around Zelensky not providing dirt on Biden when Trump demanded it, combined with Hunter Biden being involved in some Ukrainian oil company.

They now basically want Ukraine to burn because they didn't explicitly help their cult leader stay in power.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

But they still can't join NATO tho.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

For a very good reason. Nobody wants to edge world war 3.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

@Maggoty @nullPointer Fear of a 3rd world war plays into the hand of russian propaganda. Russia is geographically the world largest country. Economically they are the size of Italy.
Is Italy a superpower? No. Neither is Russia.
And Russia will never start atomic warfare against multiple NATO nuclear powers.

NATO members just shy away from getting into direct conflict. If they wouldn't, Russia would be dead.
Or can you imagine Italy winning a world war?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Sure. Are you willing to bet everyone's lives on that?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Yes.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago

Okay. We're never letting you close to a position of authority.