Isn't there a huge incentive for failing leaders to start wars? A common enemy from the outside unites the parties on the inside, the critics have to step aside - a political move since forever, and still working perfectly, see Netanjahu as the newest addition to the list.
this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2023
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It can work well, but there's no guarantee everything goes your way. Russia has zero goodwill, political presence or military threat left and is probably going to end up a Chinese puppet, Israel has lost a LOT of goodwill and moral clout even in the face of what they saw as a very good excuse to ramp up their colonization of Palestine.
You can maybe gain some internal goodwill and galvanization by invading the "other", but the cumulative and perpetual risks are also huge, and all China has to do is look north to see what happens when a country invades someone the US is willing to support military.
And right now like never before, the US wants Taiwan.
China is having trouble holding its own provinces together as it is.
Good point, really, thanks for your answer - but that didn't stop Putin and Netanjahu, didn't it? Pretty sure Xi has more to consider and to lose but all that consideration may go out the window as soon as something destabilises his power. And the provinves may even be the tipping point and not the brake of such changes.
Don't know much about control of power in China and hope they can keep it together. China losing it would be really bad, not only because of US but also because India and the whole of Asia already is tipping to a more chaotic side, too.
Quick addendum: Putin already invaded Ukraine and annexed part of it in 2014 without consequence, so he probably thought he had a free pass, and the IDF has been bombing and colonizing Palestine for decades with overwhelming global thumbs up, so they probably thought another technically retaliatory act of devastation would be fine this time too.
Can't depend on logic or past history when it comes to humans.
I'm simply agreeing with tsai that it would be a terribly disadvantageous time for China to invade Taiwan, probably the worst time since Taiwan became a country.
And while china has a lot of internal political strife, the ruling class is capitalizing so much by allowing the status quo of capitalist production and centralization and taking unearned credit for a naturally recovering economy that the risks vastly outweigh the benefits of taking Taiwan by force.
The CCP is making bank and engendering sorely needed domestic goodwill by leapfrogging industrial progress to invest directly into modern infrastructure, finance and technology.
China invading Taiwan would be like tossing a turkey you've been roasting for two and a half hours out the window to make room for a Rotisserie chicken being sold by a passing street vendor.
They should make a plan to sort this out sensibly over a few years. What’s the worst that could happen?
This would be such a stupid, self destructive move. Even worse than Russias attempt to invade Ukraine. Hopefully it never happens but seems like there are no guarantees.
Edit: Almost forgot. Fuck the CCP
Edit: Almost forgot. Fuck the CCP
you are now banned from lemmy.ml
I don't get tankies obsession with defending China and Russia. They've done more to hurt the communist cause than all the rabid right wing crazies put together.
Bless them for it
oh tankies aren't communists. they don't actually care about any of that.
nah, they only care about destroying america
I agree with tsai, but let's all take a moment to knock on wood, shall we?
This is the best summary I could come up with:
TAIPEI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - China's leadership is too "overwhelmed" with its internal problems to consider an invasion of Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen said in an interview with the New York Times.
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has ramped up military pressure against the island over the past four years, leading to concerns of a conflict that would have global repercussions.
But Tsai, in a transcript of the interview her office published on Thursday, said China had too many issues at the moment.
The DPP pushing this dangerous independence double act will only poison the interests and well being of compatriots on the island," spokesperson Chen Binhua told a news conference.
Speaking to reporters in Taipei on Thursday, top China-policy maker Chiu Tai-san dismissed Beijing's criticisms.
"Honestly speaking, those comments show they don't even know what democratic politics and elections are," said Chiu, who heads Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council.
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