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Isn't there a huge incentive for failing leaders to start wars? A common enemy from the outside unites the parties on the inside, the critics have to step aside - a political move since forever, and still working perfectly, see Netanjahu as the newest addition to the list.
It can work well, but there's no guarantee everything goes your way. Russia has zero goodwill, political presence or military threat left and is probably going to end up a Chinese puppet, Israel has lost a LOT of goodwill and moral clout even in the face of what they saw as a very good excuse to ramp up their colonization of Palestine.
You can maybe gain some internal goodwill and galvanization by invading the "other", but the cumulative and perpetual risks are also huge, and all China has to do is look north to see what happens when a country invades someone the US is willing to support military.
And right now like never before, the US wants Taiwan.
China is having trouble holding its own provinces together as it is.
Good point, really, thanks for your answer - but that didn't stop Putin and Netanjahu, didn't it? Pretty sure Xi has more to consider and to lose but all that consideration may go out the window as soon as something destabilises his power. And the provinves may even be the tipping point and not the brake of such changes.
Don't know much about control of power in China and hope they can keep it together. China losing it would be really bad, not only because of US but also because India and the whole of Asia already is tipping to a more chaotic side, too.
Quick addendum: Putin already invaded Ukraine and annexed part of it in 2014 without consequence, so he probably thought he had a free pass, and the IDF has been bombing and colonizing Palestine for decades with overwhelming global thumbs up, so they probably thought another technically retaliatory act of devastation would be fine this time too.
Can't depend on logic or past history when it comes to humans.
I'm simply agreeing with tsai that it would be a terribly disadvantageous time for China to invade Taiwan, probably the worst time since Taiwan became a country.
And while china has a lot of internal political strife, the ruling class is capitalizing so much by allowing the status quo of capitalist production and centralization and taking unearned credit for a naturally recovering economy that the risks vastly outweigh the benefits of taking Taiwan by force.
The CCP is making bank and engendering sorely needed domestic goodwill by leapfrogging industrial progress to invest directly into modern infrastructure, finance and technology.
China invading Taiwan would be like tossing a turkey you've been roasting for two and a half hours out the window to make room for a Rotisserie chicken being sold by a passing street vendor.
They should make a plan to sort this out sensibly over a few years. What’s the worst that could happen?