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"When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die."
I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He's a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He's right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?
Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he's a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?
Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard...
Whatever is going on, we don't know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.
Yeah, and we’re going to need a Top Hour option on Lemmy. This Top Day cycle clearly exceeds world event pace by at least an order of magnitude.
What if this is all an elaborate ruse to redeploy Wagner to Ukraine's northern border?
Prigozhin is pissed off at Russia's Ministry of Defense. He thinks they suck. Russian MoD is pissed off at Wagner. They really wish Prighozin would forget his social media passwords and STFU. Prigozhin "mutinies" by taking Rostov-on-Don. A couple of MoD choppers were supposedly shot down, but for the large part, very few casualties. Putin looks angry. Claims to have been "stabbed in the back". Lukashenko of Belarus "brokers a peaceful resolution", and Pregozhin and his Wagnerites agree to go to Belarus.
... in exile? I doubt it.
This looks like a winning situation for everyone concerned. Russian MoD finally get the Wagnerites out of their hair. Wagner ends up in Belarus for a much-needed resupply of equipment and perhaps some Belarusan soldiers / convicts. Putin saves face. Lukashenko looks competent.
What if Wagner subsequently decides to re-enter the fray, but this time from Ukraine's northern border? Kyiv and Lviv are closer to Belarus than they are to Russia.
Hmmm....
it's not the soldiers going to Belarus, it was only offered to pregozhin himself... if this is on the level
I would be surprised if Pregozhin voluntarily abandons what makes him indispensable to Putin. Without his armed forces, Pregozhin is just an impotent loudmouth in a sea of impotent loudmouths. He's setting himself up for defenestration if he goes that route.
In no way is Prigozhin and Wagner going to be allowed to threaten the Russian State again...
Expect them to be redeployed in Africa and the mid-east.
Attached least in the short term.....
Agreed. The situation there is absolutely unbelievable for me. Too much nonesense happening.
There is more to this than what meets the eye...
The leader of the only effective Russian fighting force in UA is retiring to the place Russia just sent their tactical nukes after trying a coup...
strong vibes of "Your loved ones are in my custody Back off now or ..."
I'm convinced Prigozhin believed he was a dead man already and decided to go out with a bang. The chances of success were just too slim, it just feels like a final gambit.
If he believed he was bound to fail in Ukraine and bound to fail in Moscow, wouldn't the latest news suggest he has even fewer options than he had before? He's backed himself into a corner surely?
I'm not sure what you mean.
But apparently, the deal entails him moving to Belarus and not being persecuted.
So, if my assessment is correct, which is a big if, he went from Putin putting a mark on him to an at least decent chance of surviving in Belarus, by pulling this hail Mary.
That's not how Russia works. Now he can never stand near a window, cliff or staircase, or drink tea.
If that's truly the deal he took, he's cemented himself as a fool of historic proportions and he will die in predictable fashion in Belarus (if he ever makes it).
I disagree, the more that comes out, the more I'm convinced its a jostling for power kinda vibe. If he's walked away without securing loyalists at FSB, MoI, AND MoD he's a dead man and he has to know that. You can't get into a powerful position in Russia and not know that. If so, then with FSB, MoI and MoD loyal to him he runs Russia in all but name.
The only way this makes any sense is if there's an active coup against Putin, Lukashenko is in on it, and convinced him to pause while the Kremlin takes out Putin, to avoid him having to fight other Russians.