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Kamala Harris has less chance of winning than Biden does. Nobody has ever been a big fan of Kamala Harris. She's not popular based on actions or personality, she's a cop, she's a woman, and she's not white.
If the intention is to truly get someone who will win more reliably than Biden, it's going to have to be another old white guy. Or at least a white guy.
It sucks, but that's where we are.
I agree it's not Harris, but to say we need yet another unrelatable motherfucker to replace this already old unrelatable motherfucker is not correct.
I'm not saying it's what we need. I'm saying it's what would actually succeed. And I agree it's a problem.
These guys tried to quantify it based on the limited poll information that we have available:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/kamala-harris-stronger-candidate-biden/story?id=111656941
You are really going to need to tl;dr that. I'm not one to not read, but that's just excessive.
I mean, it's not a really simple result.
I guess in a nutshell:
There is limited Trump-vs-Harris state polling data available. Some has to be predicted based on other polls, and there won't be many sources to work with.
Harris polls slightly better nationwide than Biden, but it's not by much.
However, the model they use, which makes use of information above-and-beyond just poll results, also predicts Biden to have a better chance of winning the Electoral College.
However, this model is built based on assumptions that may not hold for this particular unusual situation, and the authors are not sure how well those assumptions will hold up.
Thank you.
Seven paragraphs is too much? I read the full thing before seeing your comment. It's well written and easy to read.
Honestly, I think the only way out of this hole is going Harris-Sanders. I think a lot more would jump on board then.
In my other comment responding to this parent comment, I linked to an article where Five Thirty Eight was doing statistical analysis on Harris's potential performance: and they said that both Harris and Biden were hurt by being insufficiently moderate and doing poorly with moderates. But even aside from that, my expectation is that if the Democratic Party picks a candidate with the explicit goal of winning the general election, it's most-likely going to be, if anything and given the freedom to do so, shifting more-centrist from where things are today, not further to the left. The primary system will tend to pick candidates that are further from the center than would be an optimal choice from a strategic voting standpoint, since you want a candidate that will win (which includes appealing to swing voters), not the most-favored candidate by voters who vote in the party primary.
I would assume that the party would further optimize to win in the Electoral College, so from a party-chosen candidate, I'd expect to see someone that would disproportionately look like what a swing voter in a swing state would want. You'd want someone that would look good to someone who is undecided between the Republican and Democratic ticket in Michigan or Wisconsin, say. A purple voter in a purple state.
I wouldn't put too much stock in 538, they've been wrong more often than right since Obama
Nothing you said above was incorrect as far as I know, but it sure as fuck was depressing.
She's polling better than Biden
Among whom, though?
Random dude picked from the street would poll better than him