since this type of interference is geographically relevant, it clearly has nothing to do with the war.
So, I'm not sure what the rationale is -- it might be worrying about long-range drones, like those light aircraft, flying around Belarus, but I've definitely seen some sources say that they believe that the Kaliningrad jamming is a function of the war.
This article, from late May, has the Finnish government saying that they believe that it's related to the war.
Jamming GPS signals over the Baltic Sea is “most likely” a side effect of Russia's anti-drone activities, Traficom, the Finnish Transport and Communications Agency, said today.
“The interference intensified when Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure began in January 2024,” Traficom said in a press release.
Estonia also blames Russia for the signal jamming, but the Finnish agency doesn't agree with the Tallinn government in defining the interference as a hybrid attack.
“It is possible that the interference observed in aviation currently are most likely a side effect of Russia's self-protection” that is used “to prevent the navigation and control of drones controlled by GNSS [Global Navigation Satellite System] or mobile frequencies,” Traficom said.
Yeah, it might.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/chinas-balancing-act-between-us-and-russia
But China also has no reason to do that, and some good reason not to. I bet that they won't.
China may not have a direct interest in the outcome of the war itself.
However, it does gain from Russia being dependent on China.
The reason that Putin has been willing to have that dependence is because China isn't actively aiming to oppose the invasion. All China has to do to gain here is, well, nothing.
For China, that's a pretty low-cost way to gain a bunch of influence in Asia. My guess is that China's goals probably look something like this:
Make sure that this doesn't turn nuclear (which would potentially affect China).
Don't have China become involved in the conflict.
Make use of the period of time where Russia is cut off from the West to extend short-run Russian dependence (like, obtaining substitute parts from China) to long-run dependence (tying Russia to Chinese systems and services) insofar as possible.
If China decides to act in concert with the West, then it gains nothing -- China probably doesn't care much what happens in Ukraine -- and loses this new influence in Russia, which Beijing probably does very much want.