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Ok, here's the thing.
I'm going to put aside my views on both Israel and Palestine, along with whether or not I agree with Biden's handling of the situation.
But let's be realistic. The jewish population in the US is a bit over 7.5 million people. There's roughly 250,000 Palestinians in the US. Biden withdrawing support from Israel may very well be the right thing to do. But instead of the Palestinians and their supporters protesting, it would be the Jewish population and their supporters, which is far, far larger. Biden's numbers would be even lower than they are now, the protests would be far larger than they are now, and antisemitism would spiral out of control. If the Jewish population were to withdraw support for Biden as much as the Palestinians did, Biden might as well drop out of the race and hand Trump the presidency on a silver platter.
From a political point of view, Biden is in a no-win situation. This is what happened because he chose to side with Israel. It would be worse for him if he supported Palestine from day one and got flack from the Jewish population. And if he keeps flip-flopping, he'll end up just pissing both groups off.
This logic relies on the entire Jewish population in the US siding with Israel. They dont. What Israel is doing is fucking evil and a lot of people know it, regardless of faith or culture.
There are unfortunately an order of magnitude more non-Jew Zionists than Jew Zionists because its a popular belief in extreme (and not so extreme) Christian ideologies. Something to do with the rapture starting there.
No, but look at the numbers. 7.5 million jews vs. 250k palestinians. Even if only 10% sides with Israel (and I'd be willing to bet that percentage is significantly higher), that's still 3X the size of the entire palestinian population, which means Biden would still be in worse shape than he's in now.
Your math continues to ignore the large subsection of Jewish Americans who are anti-Zionist.
The other piece the the equation is that he's under pressure from the right to glass the whole of Gaza. It's really an unwinnable bind. Save the Palestinians for a few months but throw away the last chance at elections continuing in the US, and then Palestine gets glassed anyway.
So instead Biden will continue to support the genocide until Trump takes over.
It's the worst outcome for both Palestine and America, and yet the Biden administration continues to choose this horrible path.
So what's the solution?
Biden flip-flops. Now he's pissed off the Jewish people. They don't vote for Biden, Trump wins anyway, Gaza gets turned into an even bigger wasteland. Not sure why people think this is somehow the better solution.
If Biden changes course and ends the genocide, he will not lose the Jewish people, he will only lose the Zionist people. These Zionists are a small sliver of the American electorate.
Of course a change in position would have to be accompanied by a change in propaganda. The onesided pro-Israel rhetoric spewed by him and his press team would have to change to a humanist, anti-war stance. They could start by highlighting some of the atrocities committed by Israel instead of downplaying them. MSNBC and local news would quickly follow suit and pick up the party line. People should be talking about a mass grave with 400 bodies instead of a broken window at Columbia.
Obviously there would be a loud backlash from prominent Zionists, but again in the big scheme of the electorate they matter very little. The current Biden strategy of forfeiting the young, the anti-war, and the Islamic demographics would be significantly worse.
You can call this idea farfetched, but thats only because Biden is so entrenched in his position. I believe it's the best option to save the Biden presidency and avoid a Trump second term.
Here's polling to support your points:
https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/majority-in-u-s-say-israel-has-valid-reasons-for-fighting-fewer-say-the-same-about-hamas/
Still, I would bet that Israeli supporters in every category skew conservative and probably aren't going to vote for Biden regardless.
I do agree that he's trying to ride the fence, and it's not a good look from either side.
As I said to another poster: There's 7.5 million jews vs. 250k palestinians. Even if Biden supported Palestine from the beginning and only lost a fraction of support from Jews, that fraction is still likely higher than the entire Palestinian population.
Let's say the split was 90/10. 90% of the jewish population wasn't going to vote for Biden regardless. 10% would have. That 10% still represents 750,000 people, which is still 3X higher than the entire palestinian population.
I'm agreeing with you, but if you look at the demographics, you'll see there are several categories besides just Palestinians who do not think Israel is justified in their attacks on Gaza.
62% of the US Jewish population supports Israel's actions. That's 4.6 million people + an unknown number of non-Jews that also support it. Is the number of Palestinians and their supporters higher than 4.6 million? I legitimately don't know, but if it isn't, then my point would still stand: Biden denouncing Israels actions at this point would piss off even more Jewish people and put him at even greater risk of losing the election, while also having the side effect of anti-semitism spiraling out of control.
But being Jewish doesn’t mean you support Israel or what they are doing. I mean look at Bernie.
If only 10% of the jewish population supports Israel, that's still 750,000 people, or 3X the entire Palestinian population. From a political standpoint, Biden would still be worse off.
Speaking in terms of the percent of the population doesn't matter because we don't use the popular vote to elect the president. We need to see how many of them are in swing states. There's a good chance the war in Israel will turn Michigan red.
Right, but if the jewish population in those states is higher, then siding with the Palestinians would turn some of these swing states red anyway. Possibly more of them.
Exactly. Which is why I discount polls that measure national approval ratings and such. We don't elect presidents that way, so they're not valid.