10th gen came out when?? Early 2020? That would put the earliest buyers around the four year mark in a few months. That would be the earliest they'd really need to make a jump and is in line with around the average upgrade cadence of four years.
They could look at Raptor Lake Refresh, but honestly if it were me and I had a 10900K, I wouldn't even start looking until Arrow Lake next year. A 10900K would still be a beast. Ditto with 11th Gen (though 11th gen was kind of a dud so I can see why people would want to get off that one lol).
I think the opposite. I think GF will make loads of money, just not with the expensive R&D and other crap to do it. Slow and steady.