cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/60291330
kudos to s h i k o r a
edit: complete list is here (4 pages long)
Of course Russia's not included! Not obvious at all...
this post was submitted on 03 Apr 2025
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He blatantly used AI to find trade with the US. Due to sanctions thereโs almost none.
Yeah but there's still some trade, and they still tarrifed unoccupied antarctic islands so why not add russia?
Russian and North Korea and Iran are not on the list because people from the US cannot trade with them.
Liberation from what? A functioning economy?
The last remnants of a connection to reality.
hmm EU can move manufacturing to Ukraine.
Or "launder" goods through there, like China did with Mexico and some other countries. Or the US did earlier in its colonial history.
The countries with the lowest tariffs will become connector economies. Whether governments want it or not, there is just too much profit to be made.
This is why Trump is specifically targeting those countries, but then other countries will take their place.
And the end game is, Trump can succeed, but not without a global recession and much higher prices for Americans.
You are assuming the tariffs will stay in place for a predictable enough duration that anyone will invest in rerouting trade through those countries. That is very unlikely while Trump rolls the dice anew every other week.
That's a bit optimistic.
Trump is deliberately choosing chaos as a strategy, but his goal is quite clear.
Biden didn't roll back a lot of Trump's tariffs, so I am assuming these tariffs could easily extend beyond Trump.
Since the US economy will be paying the price on the short term, the situation next year and beyond will be that the US best interest would be to not rollback anything without trade partners offering concessions.
Yeah.
And again, the US was a legendary tariff dodger back in the day. It's like our claim to fame. The irony is tremendous.
hmm EU can move manufacturing to Ukraine.
There's the slight inconvenience of Russian bombs, though
It is also a business opportunity for companies making air defense systems.
Or the UK
As much as people have been mentioning the complete absence of tariffs for Russia, how has no one mentioned the massive ones for Switzerland? WTF did they do to piss off 47?
Your mistake is that you assume there's a rational reason for the level of tariffs in the first place - they use a nonsense formula based on trade imbalance
OK, fair point. There's been more news coverage that confirms this since yesterday. They apparently Cat GPT'ed the figures and provided a baloney formula when pressed as to their rationale.
They used Cat GPT? meow wonder its such a mess, searching out all that catnip and snoozing all day long is hard work!
russia.. not on the list? who could have seen this coming except for everybody!
Aren't they already massively sanctioned to the point that there will be no point? I think this is moreso "no change"
That's the narrative but they trade more with Russia still than many of the nations that got tariffed.
I literally dont understand what they are doing. Sometimes trumps decisions seem truly random. Why did they put tarrifs on israel? Arent they huge zionism fans?
Because America has a trade deficit with them. If a country exports more to America than they import back then Trump sees that as losing. He can't understand the situation any other way. He sees all deals as a power balance and the one who gets more money is the winner. All these seemingly random ass tariff rates are designed to erase any trade deficits with brute force, because that's the only thing Trump understands.
I know Trump is dumb. I know his administration is dumb. I still can't fathom that someone is this stupid. Does he really think all goods that are currently being imported will magically start being produced in the US, just because he puts import tax on them? I just can't wrap my head around someone being so incredibly naive so he either must be
- Actively trying to destroy the american economy, probably because Putin wants him to
- There is some other plan that we just don't see yet Or 3. He really is that stupid.
I know Trump is dumb. I know his administration is dumb. I still canโt fathom that someone is this stupid.
Oh but it can get more stupid, don't you worry. The following is a quote from Trump's Trade Representative, where they describe how the tariffs were calculated:
The recent experience with U.S. tariffs on China has demonstrated that tariff passthrough to retail prices was low (Cavallo et al, 2021).*
What is this recent experience that the Trump administration learned from, you ask? Cavallo et al studied the impact of Trump's tariff on China in 2018! What else did they find?
US profit margins decreased on both imports AND exports as a result of the tariffs, while Chinaโs was much less affected. The paper clearly shows American tariffs hurt Americans more than literally anyone else, and the Trump Administration "read" that paper and publically cited it as a source on a government website.
Our analyses indicate that the price incidence of US import tariffs falls largely on the United States... Our results suggest that retailers are absorbing a significant share of the increase in the cost of affected imports by earning lower profit margins on those goods... [These analyses reveal] that the recent tariffs applied by foreign governments on US exports have affected total foreign import prices far less than was the case for the recent US tariffs
*Please note while prices remained stable in response to that one tariff, Cavallo did not suggest it was a generalizable fact. It's not.
TL;DR:
- Research shows Trump's 2018 tariff hurt US importers' profit margins more than anyone else. They paid the cost (that time) to keep prices stable.
- It also shows China's reciprocal tariffs hurt US exporters much more than it hurt China's importers.
- The Trump administration legitimized this research when they cited it in their flawed reasoning that domestic prices always remain stable after tariffs (they don't)
While not supporting the idea, this video gives some insight into what the actual plan may be.
Just discovered this channel, worth watching.
I literally dont understand what they are doing.
Lol. Did you still expect to?
Anyway, they clearly have no idea what they are doing. Absolutely no idea. But this one seems to be calculated by an academic that used an impersonal objective formula that he expects to zero the trade deficit.
Somehow, it's one of the economists that don't know that tariffs don't have a direct impact on the total trade deficit. Probably, an "economist", but I didn't check.
Crash the economy so the rich can buy everything at cheaper prices
It's all done with a crude metric - half the current "tariffs" on American goods to a minimum of 10%.
Russia are, presumably, not on the list because they are sanctioned and there is no trade.
there is no trade.
But there is and what's remaining in trade is exempt from Trump's tariffs because of him being a Putin fanboy.
Companies will be selectively opted out for dropping DEI and replacing it with a christofascism-approved alternative of pushing out everyone not christian, white, able-bodied, cishet, etc., all under the name of "faith protection" and "meritocracy".
Countries will likely be opted out if they stop "censoring big tech". (They should just kick them out altogether.)
Whats up with serbia , bosnia and macedonia ... why 35+%
A quirk of the deficit / imports formula they used. Small countries with relatively small trade balances with the US can hit pretty wild values.
Fair point , i know they dont have a big trade with the us , and most of it is B2B, except services exports from us (netflix , youtube etc...)
Isn't Russia sanctioned? Or has Trump gotten rid of that?
That's what I'm thinking. It's probably a "no change" situation
tf North Macedonia and Bosnia do?๐โ๏ธ
Why did Norway get it's own percentage? ๐ค
Not a part of the EVIL, SPITEFUL EU
But then Switzerland: EVEN WORSE THAN THE EU
They probably refused to hold nazi gold this time.
get its* own