Asklemmy

I think we're going through Cold War 2 before World War 3. China and Russia have been testing krill fishing limits recently while American private equity has entered the field, and the TikTok showdown is testing Internet authority.

America will take Greenland, and then Canada is next being surrounded on three sides.

Can a NATO country invoke the defence pact if it's attacked by another NATO country?

NATO vs America wasn't on my bingo card.

The class war never stopped.

I think sort of, although it won't be as cut-and-dry and the first two. I think it'll be somewhere between a traditional 'hot' war and a cold war, where the larger players (ie: China, the US, Russia, the EU) will engage in propaganda wars, attempts to destabilize each other, cyber attacks, trade wars etc. while in areas outside of those groups (eg: Ukraine currently) there will be physical wars fought by proxy between the bigger groups.

I think we're seeing the start of it now, and IMO the US is probably doing the least well so far of the major groups. Russia is doing the destabilization thing, which is working quite well in Europe and spectacularly well in the US, China seems to be leading in trade and tech (both cyber attacking and just undermining the US tech sector with things like DeepSeek) and I think Europe's strategy seems to be to just bunker down and see what happens.

I think the main advantage the US traditionally has always had is its military - it's geared up very well for a big physical war, but I don't think this is that kind of conflict. And with the Trump administration's obsession with tariffs and the general disregard for education and soft power, I think the country is really heading in the wrong direction for what may be coming.

Most arguments against a potential WW3 happening seemed to base the assumption that we were dealing with mentally competent world leaders, who were ultimately worried more about their money and comfortable life, so would not let it happen. Trump and Elon have grown up in such wealth, they are completely disconnected from reality and I believe are insane enough to think they are untouchable by anyone and anything, even Putin knows he is not invincible. This swing to the right in Western countries seems to be filled with similar people, with the common belief that they will never truly have to deal with the consequences of their actions. People with this level of insanity, do not care if the poors get ground up in their wars and thus, i think it is now just a matter of time.

Not WW3, but Cold War 2.

I mean, unless there is no major global war from now until the heat death of the universe or some other extinction level event, aren't we just perpetually going towards WW3?

This might be his exit strategy. This is how he can get a third term.

No, we are not headed for WW3.

The military-industrial complex must be fed, our weapons sold or used. But, a large magnitude hot war has far more social and economic risk and not enough return on investment relative the alternative of multiple proxy wars. We've currently proxy wars in Israel and Ukraine. Economic growth is optimized by beginning a proxy war with China.

If Trump was smart then he might internally convince others in his administration to diplomatically and operationally over-commit. Then we could have WW3. But, he's a puppet ruling by fear. We've been fighting our proxy wars since Reagan. Trump isn't capable of overcoming capitalism's mandate for optimized growth.

In the long term, yes. The bourgeoisie are rich and comfortable with no desire for a war that could jeopardize their position. However, they have lots of financial incentives for military spending because it's rife with corruption. As such, they do a lot of saber-rattling to make WWIII seem like a genuine possibility, while also fighting in proxy wars around the globe.

But the problem is, they're playing with forces beyond their control. If you have a generation raised on constant propaganda to genuinely hate other countries, then all it takes is a couple people in the wrong positions at the wrong time who aren't in on the game. Right now, the rabid dog is on the leash of the bourgeoisie, but the gamble they've been making is that they can keep pumping steroids into it forever and never lose control.

Furthermore, wasting all this money on war and militarism has allowed China to emerge as a credible threat to their global hegemony. China is sitting back and focusing on domestic economic development, and they are winning the peace while the US burns itself out. What happens when the only area in which the US has an advantage is the military? Are people really going to accept becoming #2, or are they going to force a confrontation? Given that we're talking about Americans, who are 1) Riled up on propaganda, 2) Preoccupied with being "#1," and 3) Unused to experiencing the effects of fucking around firsthand, it seems almost inevitable. Ofc, it's true that we somehow maintained a Cold War with the USSR for decades, but it's different today because conditions are declining and the far-right is growing stronger every day.

Perhaps. Depends, ultimately, on if the US Empire goes down with a bang, or a whimper. Its grip on the world is spilling through its fingers like sand, so either it will watch it fall out helplessly, or will attempt to strike and retake what it's losing.

Probably. Too many hot spots in the world right now where a minor mistake can result in a chain reaction.

Depending on how you define it, it may have already happened. WW1 was mostly just Europe.

On average it takes ~21 years between world wars, so it's about the time since we're 60 years late on schedule

https://lemmy.world/post/24430665

I'm going to look at it more in terms of how long a European peace lasted.

The Napoleonic wars ended with the Concert of Europe, a peace that was able to last until World War I and depended on a balance of power that lasted for almost a century.

An equivalent system was set up after World War II with a peace anchored by the Allied Powers, decolonization, and the US-Soviet rivalry. That system has lasted for about 80 years and is showing significant strain.

I don't know how long this system will last, but it doesn't seem like it will last for much longer. Trump's election seems to be hastening that end.

Maximum profit is extracted being in a perpetual state of "will they/won't they WWIII" which is why we'll be right here in this mood for a long time..

We have been in WW3 since Russia started it's fully scale invasion if Ukraine in 2022. The major conflicts if it just haven't become kinetic yet. China has conducted cyber attacks in the United States, Russia has been attacking undersea fiber. China is building ships that on gave one ouroose to invaide Taiwan. In 100 years thus will be seen as the early days if the war.

Ww3 is too high risk due to nukes, but it will get to that point and hopefully not over it

I think some would argue that class warfare is a cold war already happening.

You have to define 'we' and you also have to define 'WW3'.

Possible scenarios:

• USA decides to get actively involved in Ukraine's conflict. Yes, that could spell WW3. Low probability, though, since Trump does not care about Ukraine.

• Russia decides to attack Western Europe. Probably only a regional conflict, since Trump would probably pull out of NATO. This is the scenario a lot of European nations are gaming today.

• China attacks Taiwan and/or North Korea attacks South Korea. Probably a regional conflict, but with a high probability of escalation. Trump would drop both South Korea and Taiwan at the drop of a hat.

• Iran attacks Israel, probably through proxy. Regional conflict. This is already going on, so low risk of escalation.