You might think that those who entered the country under the President’s signature border policy would enjoy some measure of credit as migrants who, to use a phrase favored by politicians, “came the right way.” But Biden’s strategy always carried one glaring risk: parole leaves people in limbo once it expires after two years. With Trump entering office, such people may actually be more vulnerable. Not only do they represent a Biden policy that Trump is intent on dismantling but the government already has much of their personal information, including recent addresses, which they willingly handed over. “I strongly believe that the people who came in through this program will be lumped in with criminals and new arrivals as priorities for arrest,” a senior congressional staffer told me. “They have a target on their backs. All the new arrivals are seen as people who were just let in.”
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In the period between now and Inauguration Day, on January 20th, the Biden Administration could still give immigrants additional layers of protection before Trump takes office. One of the most obvious possibilities is to expand T.P.S. for Nicaraguans, based on the indisputable fact that the country’s authoritarian regime has been carrying out a brutal repression of perceived opponents, including members of the press, civil society, and the Catholic Church. So far, however, the Administration appears unwilling to do so, just as it remains opposed to renewing parole for those who entered through Biden’s “pathways.” Trump almost certainly will revoke parole. Either way, the senior congressional staffer told me, “parole is a weak protection compared to T.P.S.”
When Trump tried to end T.P.S. for certain nationalities in his first term, federal courts blocked him on the grounds that he had a “predetermined presidential agenda” that betrayed a racial “animus.” According to a former Biden Administration official with knowledge of current talks, the State Department supports expanding T.P.S. for Nicaraguans, based on a straightforward analysis of what’s happening in the country, but Mayorkas, at D.H.S., is opposed. (A D.H.S. spokesperson said that this was false and that “no decision has been made.”) “Extending T.P.S. used to be one of the easiest things Democrats supported,” the senior congressional staffer told me. But the Administration’s approach is now constrained by anxieties that it might seem brash or opportunistic on its way out. “It’s becoming evident that they believe immigration was one of the main factors in the electoral defeat,” the staffer said. “They don’t want to take actions that would double down on what they believe is a failed political strategy.”
For a President who considers Trump a fascist and has warned about the horrors of mass deportation, the atmosphere of Biden’s White House has struck several people I spoke with as curiously sedate. Another source at D.H.S. said that there are “two camps” in the Administration. The first has pushed for strong, decisive action before Biden leaves office; the other, which the source described as a “counterpush,” preferred “an orderly transition.” “There’s a lot of back-and-forth,” the person told me.
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