A place for majestic STEMLORD peacocking, as well as memes about the realities of working in a lab.
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This is a science community. We use the Dawkins definition of meme.
Wrong: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now my chances are 101%.
Right: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now my chances are 2%.
Wrighongt: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now my chances are 3%, because I'm a lucky person.
Sleep deprived fraction lover: I had a 1% chance, and I doubled my chances. Now due to 1/100 * 1/100 I chances are 0.0001%.
Funny thing is this is a language issue, not a math issue.
Why not both?
I've always thought of math as a language and I talk to my kids about it that way too. Math is an other way to describe the world.
It's very different from spoken languages and translating between the two needs to be learned and practiced.
Our math education doesn't include enough word problems and it should be bi-directional. In addition to teaching students how to write equations based of sentences we should teach them how to describe what's going on in an equation.
Yeah, it is kinda both in general. Though in this case, the math about this is well-defined: it's possible to increase a percentage either with addition or multiplication and both of those can make sense, just the words we would use to describe them are the same so it ends up ambiguous when you try going from math to English or vice versa.
But the fact that switching between communication language and a formal language/system like math isn't clear cut does throw a bit of a wrench in the "math doesn't lie". It's pretty well-established that statistics can be made to imply many different things, even contradictory things, depending on how they are measured and communicated.
This can apply to science more generally, too, because the scientific process depends on hypotheses expressed in communication language, experiments that rely on interpretation of the hypothesis, and conclusions that add another layer of interpretation on the whole thing. Science doesn't lie but humans can make mistakes when trying to do science. And it's also pretty well established that science media can often claim things that even the scientists it's trying to report on will disagree strongly with.
Though I will clarify that the "both" part is just on the translation. Formal systems like math are intended to be explicit about what they say. If you prove something in math, it's as true as anything else is in that system, assuming you didn't make a mistake in the proof.
Though even in a formal system, not everything that is true is provable, and it is still possible to express paradoxes (though I'd be surprised if it was possible to prove a paradox... And it would break the system if you could).
In the same vein, if the volume on your phone is on 1, and you increase it to 2, it has increased by 100%
Kinda. Logarithms are weird
i think
I know all this. I play DPS!
Can't believe nobody has linked the relevant xkcd yet
Which of course is why people referred to points when discussing stocks/markets. Got to love an unambiguous term.
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Even more confusing when you hear that the odds of catching a disease have increased by a %. In many ways odds can be more intuitive, but we're so used to working with simple probability that it's a total nightmare to wrap your head around at first.
I've always wondered how to disambiguate multiplication and addition of percentages. I guess that's what percentage points are for?
The annoying part is that there is no well-known notation for showing percentage points, so people use % for both percentages and percentage points.
I like how some games use "increases by +10%" as percentage points and "increases by 10%" as percentage.
Or how oath of exile does it, with "(base + base * increases by y%) * z% more"
So with a base of 5%, chance increased by 20%, and chance increased by 30%, with a 40% more chance, you'd get:
(5% + 5% x (20% + 30%)) x (1+40%) = 7.5% x 1.4 = 10.5%
In deep rock galactic survival, the color of the number is different for percentage and percentage points
We really should just have a different symbol tho. Maybe we do, I'm not a math wiz, but we certainly don't have a broadly used one.
I’d love to see percentage points as a symbol that’s literally “%” with dots in the circles
10% of your people vote for a party.
The votes increase by 10% => now 11%
The votes increase by 200% => now 30%
The votes increased by 50 percent points => now 60%
Exactly. Unfortunately, they aren't used widely and consistently enough. Even in the press. So you frequently have to second guess what you're reading.
It's really pretty simple - if something increases by 80%, you add 80% of whatever it already is... one dollar becomes $1.80... one percent becomes 1.8 percent.
Most people don't understand it because they've seen it done wrong so often, the wrong way seems right.
I'm quite willing to bet that 70% of the population has no clue that percentages, fractions, and decimals are the same thing.
Then odds show up to the party and upend everything we thought we understood.
That's about 60% more than expected
You mean 38 percent points higher ?
That's not even a stat question, it is a english question. It is an increase by 80% not to 80%
Statistics only come to play to figure out our new chances.
Maybe I'm wrong but by writing "increase by 80%" there is ambiguity you don't get if you instead spelled out:
Having two possible outcomes does not mean it's a 50:50 chance.
"So if I aim the arrow at the 1cm square from 100m away and shoot, I either hit it or I don't. So basically I have a 50% chance of hitting it."
My wife, father-in-law and I were playing a board game with my brother-in-law. In this game, we were playing as detectives who have to try to find his character, but each turn he could move in secret in one of several directions. We were a few turns in at one point and he could have been in any of dozens of places at this point. We drove him nuts by saying "he's either in this spot or he's not, it's a 50-50 chance." He kept arguing "I could be in a ton of places! It's not a 50-50 chance!" But we just kept pretending we didn't understand and arguing that there were only two possibilities, he's there or he's not, so it was clearly a 50-50 chance. He got quite angry.
well it's ambiguous. Its also a sloppy way of expressing an increase by 80 percentage points.