We are in the analytics era of many sports. Strategies have drastically changed in the past decade or so as teams invest more into the use of statistics for coaching decisions and team strategy. You could probably write the exact same article about how more football games are being decided by teams trying more 4th down conversions when they used to punt.
this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2024
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The analytics are interesting too. From a pure statistics perspective, it actually makes sense to start pulling the goalie at about 8mins left in the third. But fans will have quite an adverse reaction to that (particularly if you do it at home). What's interesting though is that we've gone from pulling with 1min left to 3mins... I suspect that will keep increasing until it converges to the statistical sweet spot, but only a little bit each year so fans don't react badly.
From a pure statistics perspective, it actually makes sense to start pulling the goalie at about 8mins left in the third.
Can you plz elaborate? :)
Also not a stats/capitalist/math guy, but a couple years ago I came across this paper "Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications."
The modeling is far beyond me, but when down one goal "The crossover point comes at 6:10 remaining. So, at 6:20 you should not pull the goalie, but at 6:10 you should." And two goals they say pull with 13 minutes left.
Their explanation of their model helps somewhat, and I'm sure the math is all very interesting to someone who gets it.
Thanks for linking this! I thought this was interesting:
There have been a number of papers published on the subject using different models and data, but all agree that goalies should be pulled earlier than is the usual practice.
Not a stat guy, but I do think about the 5 minute mark makes sense.
- you have time to recover from an empty net goal.
- the big advantage is sustained pressure and forcing long shifts, you need time to get some players on the ice for 2+ minutes.
- drawing a penalty from the extra pressure isn't very useful if you only get 30 seconds.
- you can put the goalie back in if you tie it up.
- you can pull the goalie at a more opportune time when you are established in the zone.
Agreed, teams will develop defensive strategies over time to mitigate the advantages, or if it becomes too strong the rules will be adjusted.
The pessimist in me says defense is just not what it used to be.
The rules have consistently changed to favor offense. From 2 line pass to stricter holding and checking rules the league wants more scoring. It's not that D isn't as good it's that it's forwards "have it easier" than 20 years ago.