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The rise of empty net goals is changing the NHL (www.dailyfaceoff.com)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Also not a stats/capitalist/math guy, but a couple years ago I came across this paper "Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications."

The modeling is far beyond me, but when down one goal "The crossover point comes at 6:10 remaining. So, at 6:20 you should not pull the goalie, but at 6:10 you should." And two goals they say pull with 13 minutes left.

Their explanation of their model helps somewhat, and I'm sure the math is all very interesting to someone who gets it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Thanks for linking this! I thought this was interesting:

There have been a number of papers published on the subject using different models and data, but all agree that goalies should be pulled earlier than is the usual practice.