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The rise of empty net goals is changing the NHL (www.dailyfaceoff.com)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (2 children)

From a pure statistics perspective, it actually makes sense to start pulling the goalie at about 8mins left in the third.

Can you plz elaborate? :)

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Also not a stats/capitalist/math guy, but a couple years ago I came across this paper "Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications."

The modeling is far beyond me, but when down one goal "The crossover point comes at 6:10 remaining. So, at 6:20 you should not pull the goalie, but at 6:10 you should." And two goals they say pull with 13 minutes left.

Their explanation of their model helps somewhat, and I'm sure the math is all very interesting to someone who gets it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Thanks for linking this! I thought this was interesting:

There have been a number of papers published on the subject using different models and data, but all agree that goalies should be pulled earlier than is the usual practice.

[–] ryathal 2 points 1 month ago

Not a stat guy, but I do think about the 5 minute mark makes sense.

you have time to recover from an empty net goal.
the big advantage is sustained pressure and forcing long shifts, you need time to get some players on the ice for 2+ minutes.
drawing a penalty from the extra pressure isn't very useful if you only get 30 seconds.
you can put the goalie back in if you tie it up.
you can pull the goalie at a more opportune time when you are established in the zone.