Note: Jill is literally paid to run as a spoiler, and if you look at her actual policies, lot of transphobia, ablism, and support for pseudoscience
this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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guys it's not that hard, all we have to do is to not vote for still jein.
... there were people voting for stein?
i would hope not, but idk why else you would be running lmao
jesus christ this thread is a fucking nightmare bro
i feel like i've done three pounds of ketamine just scrolling through these comments.
I don't understand why it is taken for granted that if Stein wasn't a candidate the people who vote for her would be voting for the Democrats instead. Just as likely they would not vote at all or vote for some other protest candidate.
I saw some stats on this in another thread, most third party voters wouldn't be voting if their candidate wasn't on the ballot, and most third party voters benefit Democrats down ballot. The spoiler candidate logic has always been sketchy.
The spoiler candidate logic has always been sketchy.
it depends on how popular third party is. If they're getting 20-30% of the vote but no more it's extremely common for them to drop out to support the primary instead.
Anything lower than 10% and it probably doesn't matter much. RFK jr is a decent exmaple of this, although he was more "bipartisan" in terms of support, apparently.
The last US Presidential election decided with more than a 10% margin was Regan. The only vote with above a 5% margin this millennium was Obama's first term.
"Anything lower than 10% and it probably doesn't matter much" is a weird take.
this is assuming that the voter split isn't roughly at random. Jill stein is running on either extremely far left anti war sentiment, which we see among the right as well, along with cozying up to russia apparently, which only tankies and farther right people want.
That alone is pretty mixed.
Generally unless the candidate is going to pull a large enough share of the votes to the point where it enact a significant draw from the candidate hence my 20-30% figure, it really won't do anything to the voter turnout. Like i said, as we saw with RFK, it was roughly split down the middle.
Jill stein might pull more far lefties, but that's only because they refuse to vote in their best interest lmao. They wouldn't vote anyway.
Conservative voters are not anti-war, they are anti-Russian war, and the Republican ticket already addresses that. These people don't historically vote for left wing parties, nor are they in this case.
The green party's base is pot smokers and college students who haven't gotten wise to the green grift yet.
As in that's such a small group they are probably more dedicated to their candidate and won't vote for anyone else.
Again. You can't expect to remove candidates from a ballot and their support will all just vote Democrat. It's a false logic to assume they belong to anywhere else other than their vote block.
When you have a large base that small percentage that's willing to vote off base ends up being a larger percentage of the vote overall as well.
Currently you would have to get every single last green party voter to give up and vote Blue which is an impossible ask. So even at 5% of the vote I'm not sure they could swing an election with enough if their candidate asked nicely.
They went high with their estimate though.
yeah, my 10% figure was probably generous, but i think i would probably stand by it in most cases, as unless you're polling 20% at bare minimum you're probably dropping out of primaries anyway out of fears of "siphoning" votes. Realistically the outcome between the two alternatives here is probably marginal, if at all.
Because people who are disillusioned that the green party would address their concerns are generally not complete shitheads like republicans; they're decent but misled people.
Because a vote abstention is a vote for the person in the lead. If Harris is in the lead, then every single American who abstains from voting is essentially helping her win, but the same is true if Trump is in the lead. Convincing Green voters that it makes more sense in a FPTP system to vote Democrat as its the closest party to their preferred ideology is a statistically productive activity.
Kamala Harris can win over all of those Jill Stein voters with a single sentence.
Stupid Jill Stein's entire campaign is based on the premise that Democrats would keep a genocide going for an entire year into election season.
Yeah remember when they were all clamoring for Biden to drop out? And he did? They just fucking moved the goalposts.
They do not give a fuck about Gaza. It's just a tool to hurt Democrats.
Republicans hate this one simple trick!
They really do, oddly enough, for multiple reasons.
Aint nobody voting for Jill Stein lmao
"Both siders" do
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