this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2023
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Iran has told Israel through the UN that it will intervene if the country’s operations against Hamas in Gaza continue, a report has claimed.

Israel has warned 1.1 million people living in the north of the enclave to evacuate ahead of an expected ground operation in Gaza with the IDF planning to strike the territory from land, sea and air.

Iran’s involvement could be through a militant group from Syria or by backing Hezbollah to join the conflict, diplomatic sources told Axios.

Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said that Israel’s operations could cause fighting to expand to other areas of the Middle East which would cause Israel to suffer “a huge earthquake”, reported the Associated Press.

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[–] [email protected] 163 points 10 months ago (54 children)

Israel is 110% not going to heed this warning in the absolute slightest.

[–] [email protected] 121 points 10 months ago (7 children)

Iran does not pose a credible military threat to Israel. They only have a couple of options - terrorist attacks from their proxies, maybe a cross-border incursion from Lebanon that would be a slaughter and change the balance of power there, or an air strike. Israel is so amped up right now that they’d respond with airstrikes inside Iran, and US carrier groups are in the area with no misunderstanding as to what they signify.

This is saber-rattling for theatrics.

[–] dependencyInjection 64 points 10 months ago (3 children)

Iran are not wrong though, Israel need to chill.

It’s really annoying how the mainstream media is like yeah this is cool, when they’re commuting atrocities no better than Hamas committed.

I don’t know what it is with Israel that makes the world walk on eggshells but they have committed horrific acts and they should be called out on it.

Fucking monsters the Israeli government are.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Fucking monsters the Israeli government are.

They are despicably evil.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Fuck Hamas and all people who support leftist terrorists

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago

Hey man, you do know that Hamas has nothing to do with the left right? And yeah, fuck Hamas anyway, but you should not be equalizing leftism with terrorism support because, let me tell you, I have yet to meet one leftist that backs ups what Hamas did. The ones that "sound" lile they do, only are explaining that extremism is born through dispair, of which Palestinians have plenty of it after being ethnically clenaed for 70+ years. But that does not mean, in any way possible, that they not condemn Hamas actions. Quite the contrary, they condemn every terrorist action, Hamas or Israeli.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 10 months ago (2 children)

Yeah, the only thing Israel is concerned about is the international reputation. They know they can't go full ham, even now every western government in support is dropping the "and I am SURE Israel will keep to international law" as a hint and reminder that there is a limit somewhere.

[–] prole 11 points 10 months ago

Lol... The UN has been trying to chastise Israel for decades now for literally breaking international law, and the US shuts it down with their veto power. They've already been doing it for decades.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 10 months ago

Jewish people don’t eat ham.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Also Israel had nukes and Iran doesn't yet

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Think they'll speed it up now?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 10 months ago

They're idiots if they don't.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago (1 children)

What about ballistic missiles? Iran has it...

[–] [email protected] -1 points 10 months ago

Israel hasn't gotten many chances to test its other 2 layers of its defense system. Iron dome is just the first, short range layer.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 10 months ago (2 children)

A nuclear threat would change that.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Probably not all that much, to be honest. Look at India and Pakistan. That would be the closest example here.

Nuclear weapons’ most important role today is preventing an all out invasion of the country. Israel is already a nuclear power. They could launch a nuclear attack on Iran at any time. They don’t, for obvious reasons. Russia could launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine. They don’t, for equally obvious reasons.

I started my career in Soviet analysis, and ended up knowing quite a bit about the role of nuclear weapons in foreign and military policies. In the early days (50s), we thought it would be possible to fight and win a nuclear war. I don’t think anyone thinks that anymore.

There is no scenario which includes Russia using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine that does not end with the end of the Putin government if not the end of Russia as we know it. It wouldn’t even need to be a global nuclear war for that to happen.

The same holds true for India and Pakistan, which like I said is the best analogy. Implacable enemies with religious and territorial disputes, screwed over by colonialism, and ongoing low level violence.

Israel-Iran is the same, only more so. The I-P conflict doesn’t have the US as an unquestioning ally, unlike Israel. I-P have about 150 weapons each. Israel is estimated to have 100. Iran has 0, and even if and when they start production, they’ll have 5-10. And then you have to factor in the delivery of the weapon, which would be the opposition between the Iranian and Israeli (and US) air forces, with predictable results.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago

Thanks for your insights! I think I learned one or two things here. Please comment more on topics like these, if you like.

India and Pakistan, which like I said is the best analogy. Implacable enemies with religious and territorial disputes, screwed over by colonialism, and ongoing low level violence.

Sounds good indeed. I spotted another parallel between the two conflicts: Both can use the same abbreviation. At first I was confused when you started talking about "The I-P conflict".

[–] [email protected] 5 points 10 months ago

By whom? Israel is the only one with nukes in the area.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 10 months ago (2 children)

It's signaling to the region.

Israel has a strong military for sure but they can't fight every country. Also, declaring war on the Muslim world is not something Israel can win even with Western support.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 10 months ago

I mean they literally can fight every country, they did it before when they didn't even have their MIC up and running yet

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