this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2023
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Tesla's value plunged nearly $200 billion since mid-July – and the EV maker faces a bumpy road ahead::Tesla shares closed Tuesday at just over $233, well down on their 2023 peak of $291.

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[–] [email protected] 104 points 1 year ago (8 children)

Setting aside anything related to Musk, Tesla really doesn’t seem to be staying competitive.

Cybertruck (and the “indestructible” window press conference) is probably the easiest example. Years of attempted hype that haven’t paid off in a meaningful manner, while rivals have been releasing in-class competition. Anyone can see that’s a problem.

Tesla cars used to be pretty revolutionary, now they’re in an entirely different era that’s filling with exciting EV alternatives around every corner. Yet Tesla style still looks the same. The shoddy construction is still around and becoming more widespread knowledge. They’re failing to attract their target audience due to a long series of missteps. More problems.

Not to mention that Tesla was downright overpriced at its height. It’s a fraction of the volume yet made other automaker valuations look minuscule. The logic for that was never there.

[–] [email protected] 65 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Besides Musk…it’s the fact they are still using the same design from 10+ years ago. When I see a tesla, I can’t tell the difference between the S & 3 or the X & Y. They made one car and scaled it in their software. All 4 cars are due for a redesign and they don’t need to all look identical. And they need to figure out how to actually assemble them without being shit.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Model S3xy? Why Elon, just why...

The model X looks like an inflated model 3 IMO, the first time I saw one IRL it looked kinda hideous

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I'm not a car guy. There happened to be a tesla showroom at the mall (wtf?) I was at with some coworkers for lunch, and one of them was dying to look at the new model X, so we made a detour. It was the first tesla I sat in.

I couldn't believe how cheap and tacky it felt. Everything was plasticy, leather felt like pleather. The giant tablet just seemed unnecessary and gaudy.

The tech was cool and all, but I couldn't believe this was what everyone was talking about.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Never mind unnecessary and gaudy, it's dangerous. Pretty much all car functions are on that touchscreen, meaning you have to use it while you drive.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Which functions are on it that you need to drive? The only one I can think of is the climate control, but I just set mine on automatic, or adjust it at a stoplight. It's pretty good.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago

I feel like the vibe is a reasonably nice car from the 80s that someone put a huge tablet inside. I agree I find it really off putting, but I know people who love it so 🤷‍♂️

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

If memory serves, the only reason that they couldn't go for the Model E, is that Ford has/had a trademark for it, so they went with Model 3 instead.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Nothing wrong with that if it’s successful. VW used the same design language for the Beetle/Van/Truck for ages.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Same design language and copy cats are different. I can clearly make the difference of a Jetta/Passat or Civic/Accord. They obviously share a similar design but are definitely their own. Tesla’s on the other hand, I couldn’t tell you the difference of the X or Y. They look identical. Even the sedans look damn near identical. And no other car company keeps the exact same design for 10+ years (besides Toyota and the 4Runner)

[–] Kecessa 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Most people can't tell a Macan from a Cayenne or a 911 from a 718, doesn't matter what enthusiasts think, normies are the people who represent the majority and they're buying the cars anyway.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Exactly people say this but then not about Mazda. Every single Mazda has the same design scheme. There's nothing wrong with that, if it works for the company fine, but like, "oh they all look the same" is invalid as a complaint against them.

Tesla has many other things you can diss on them for.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Cybertruck is a symptom of poor leadership. Maybe after it flops, Tesla will clean house.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

Musk only owns about 14% of Tesla. The other stockholders should clean house of the board and CEO.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

While I agree Cybertruck may have jumped the shark, I recently noticed …. After years of GM saying cylindrical batteries are not practical and pouch batteries are the only way to go, and Ultium is more advanced than anything Tesla has …. They’re redesigning EV models early to switch to cylindrical batteries like Tesla

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

The only reason GM (and others) tried to tout pouch cells is because there was a complete lack of cylindrical production capacity available. Tesla was using it all.

What are you going to do, say we'd rather use these other batteries but we can't, so here you go?

I am ecstatic that most of the major manufactures have finally decided to transition to prismatic and/or cylindrical.

I wouldn't even be surprised if regulations one day prevent use of pouch cells for automotive purposes.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Give it 5 - 10 years. Tesla will be a company that makes and maintains a charging station network and sells batteries to the other auto makers.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that they can't hack it in an automotive sales industry. Which is fine, frankly. I think battery manufacturing and charging network are pretty complimentary industries and provide a decent revenue stream into the future, License the charging tech to other automakers early and get some vendor lock-in going, and the company could be in it for the long haul.

They might even be able to keep making a couple EVs, to prove new charging or battery tech, much like how Google keeps making Pixel phones to essentially prove and market new Android features.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (3 children)

and sells batteries to the other auto makers.

My limited understanding of the matter is that their batteries are overpriced and nothing special compared to alternatives.

The real game changer that seems to be coming down the pipeline is the solid state battery Toyota has been teasing. If they manage to bring that to market while holding important patents on the technology it's basically game over for other kinds of battery for EVs.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Toyota has been teasing this for years now. It's a bit like fusion energy at this point, always on the brink of a revolution that never comes.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

Tesla makes batteries for $80/kwh. Everyone else is paying $120.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Are you referring to Tesla's 4680's or the cells that Tesla gets from Pansonic?

Re: Panasonic

Tesla's been refining their cells with Panasonic for quite awhile and have done things like substantially reduced the cobalt used compared to others (at least as of couple years ago). I'm not sure what the differences in wh/kg are compared to others today.

Panasonic is also much more efficient at making those cells at scale which gives Tesla an edge on their cost.

Tesla has always made their own batteries (the grouping of the cells). Their battery + BMS on the other hand is substantially better than other manufacturers. They can manufacture the battery much cheaper than others, and the BMS keeps it running smoothly.

For example - The Fords Mach E performance model can't (or couldn't) even do more than a launch or two before having to throttle itself due to heat. They currently have recalls happening due to contactors having problems with heat.

Re: Tesla's 4680 Cells

Right now, they're nothing special from a wh/kg perspective, what they're main goal for them is to be substantially cheaper to manufacture than the cells other manufactures make. If you can make them for 2/3 the cost you'll have huge advantage over everyone else, and then also you don't have to pay the mark up to Panasonic or LG either.

Only time will tell if their chemistry/anode/cathode improvements will make their cells better than what other manufactures are producing now and in the future. Personally, I'd be nervous to get a 1st / 2nd gen version of these cells/batteries while they work things out.

Re: Solid state

If that ever happens and they are cost competitive to produce, then that'll be a big deal ya. What if they aren't cost competitive though?

Will you be willing to pay $10-15k more for the same range but faster charging, higher safety, and more lifecycles?

You're right though, they are the future eventually.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Have they even released that damn truck? It’s been years and I haven’t seen one while the s,3,x, and Ys are everywhere when I go to work

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Nope. First production one completed in July, nearly four years after the first press release. Supposedly customer deliveries at some point of Q3 2023, which is basically down to a month left.

https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/1519/tesla-officially-completes-first-cybertruck-but-we-ll-have-to-wait-for-first-deliveries

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

The first truck was also "completed" right before their quarterly earnings, which I'm sure was a coincidence. No other trucks have been publicly shown to be assembled.