this post was submitted on 21 May 2025
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Absolutely needed: to get high efficiency for this beast ... as it gets better, we'll become too dependent.

"all of this growth is for a new technology that’s still finding its footing, and in many applications—education, medical advice, legal analysis—might be the wrong tool for the job,,,"

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[–] [email protected] 34 points 6 days ago (6 children)

Historically AI always got much better. Usually after the field collapsed in an AI winter and several years went by in search for a new technique to then repeat the hype cycle. Tech bros want it to get better without that winter stage though.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 6 days ago (2 children)

AI usually got better when people realized it wasn't going to do all it was hyped up for but was useful for a certain set of tasks.

Then it turned from world-changing hotness to super boring tech your washing machine uses to fine-tune its washing program.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Like the cliché goes: when it works, we don't call it AI anymore.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 6 days ago (1 children)

The smart move is never calling it "AI" in the first place.

[–] Enkers 10 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Unless you're in comp sci, and AI is a field, not a marketing term. And in that case everyone already knows that's not "it".

[–] [email protected] 7 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

The major thing that killed 1960s/70s AI was the Vietnam War. MIT's CSAIL was funded heavily by DARPA. When public opinion turned against Vietnam and Congress started shutting off funding, DARPA wasn't putting money into CSAIL anymore. Congress didn't create an alternative funding path, so the whole thing dried up.

That lab basically created computing as we know it today. It bore fruit, and many companies owe their success to it. There were plenty of promising lines of research still going on.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 days ago

I wish there was an alternate history forum or novel that explores this scenario.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Pretty sure "AI" didn't exist in the 60s/70s either.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Yes, it did. Most of the basic research came from there. The first section of the book "Hackers" by Steven Levy is a good intro.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 5 days ago

The perceptron was created in 1957 and a physical model was built a year later

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 days ago

That's part of why they installed Donald Trump as the dictator of the United States. The other is the network states.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 days ago

The spice must flow

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Each winter marks the beginning and end of a generation of AI. We are now seeing more progress and as long as there is no technical limit it seems that its progress will not be interrupted.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 6 days ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 11 points 6 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (8 children)

In what area of AI? Image generation is increasing in leaps and bounds. Video generation even more so. Image reconstruction for games (DLSS, XeSS, FSR) is having generational improvements almost every year. AI chatbots are getting much much smarter seemingly every month.

What’s one main application of AI that hasn’t improved?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Which chatbots are getting smarter?

I know AI has potential, but specifically LLMs (which most people mean when talking about AI) seem to have hit their technological limits.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Copilot, ChatGPT, pretty much all of them.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Smarter how? Synthetic benchmarks?

Because I've heard the opposite from users and bloggers.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

So you want me to provide some evidence that it's getting smarter, but you can't provide any that it's getting worse other than anecdotal evidence?

What evidence would you accept?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Any proof that we have moved past the current architecture.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago (1 children)

What does "architecture" mean in this scenario?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Any significant shift in the model, or a complete restructuralization of the approach.

As it is, it won't grow anywhere.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

So you’ve got access to all this stuffs source code and know what has and hasn’t changed with every update?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

No, if there was any major breakthrough, it would be advertised everywhere.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (2 children)

They’re constantly advertising updates to these chat bots in what they can do.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 days ago

Small incremental updates on little tasks mean nothing, the underlying issues are still the same.

It has no intelligence, and as such carries big risks.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 days ago (1 children)

No, they are spreading lies about shit that doesn't matter as to not lose the hype.

If anyone made any significant advance, they would be all over the world.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 days ago (1 children)

You’re not backing this up with anything. Those of us who use them know they’ve been making big updates regularly.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 days ago (1 children)

You're not backing anything up either, just 'my experience'.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 days ago

Do you want me to just link to Microsoft and OpenAI’s pages about their AI chatbots updates?

[–] Jakeroxs 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Advanced Reasoning models came out like 4 months ago lol

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Advanced reasoning? Having LLM talk to itself?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago

Yes, which has improved some tasks measurably. ~20% improvement on programming tasks, as a practical example. It has also improved tool use and agentic tasks, allowing the llm to plan ahead and adjust it's initial approach based on later parts.

Having the llm talk through the tasks allows it to improve or fix bad decisions taken early based on new realizations on later stages. Sort of like when a human thinks through how to do something.

[–] Jakeroxs -1 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Lul yes but no, but they are clearly better at many types of tasks.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

For example? Citations?

Pretty sure these "tasks" are meaningless metrics made up by pseudo-scientific grifters.

[–] Jakeroxs 3 points 6 days ago

Small bits of code, language related tasks, basic context understanding, not metrics I have literally measured simply noticed has improved compared to non reasoning models in my homelab testing. 🤷‍♂️

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 days ago

AlphaFold 3 which can help in the prediction of some proteins. Although it has some limitations, it cannot be used in all cases, only in what it can perform without any problem.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

The issue this time around is infrastructure. The current AI Summer depends on massive datacenters with equally massive electrical needs. If companies can't monetize that enough, they'll pull the plug and none of this will be available to general public anymore.

This system can go backwards. Yes, the R&D will still be there after the AI Winter cycle hits, but none of the infrastructure.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 days ago

We'll still have models like deepseek, and (hopefully) discount used server hardware

[–] mindbleach 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Local models aren't going anywhere. You can hoard them if you're worried. People freely tweak them to do some weird shit. There's whole independent websites for sharing these tweaks.

The only infrastructure that's at risk is the part where corporations burn billions of dollars hoping the really really big models will turn a profit somehow. The power and capability of small models is basically whatever the big boys did a year ago - and a ton of money has been spent on improving the efficiency of training. Tightening the belt is not going to make things worse. It's certainly not going to make this whole new kind of software un-happen.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Local models aren't what's driving the current AI Summer. No billionaire will be quoted in the New York Times saying how great local models are.

[–] mindbleach 1 points 6 days ago

Why on Earth is that your metric?

The money addicts desperately want big models to win because that means less competition and more subscription revenue. But that's three delusions in a row. Mainframes are basically never a sensible business model. Models costing mere tens of millions already challenge billion-dollar projects. And as you say, infrastructure is expensive, so most people want software that runs within arm's reach. There's every reason these cloud services bleed money.

Local models are what's making all the weird shit you see online. Certainly the porn is not made by typing stuff into Facebook. And again: whatever cutting-edge advances happen in moonshot-priced, datacenter-sized models, they're soon replicated on any recent desktop. If that same blank-check experimentation had only bothered with small models, do you think they'd be further behind or further ahead?

What's driving this AI Summer is a horde of ultranerds, funded by these rich idiots lying to each other. A lot of them will still be doing this if the money dries up. A lot of them already do it for free. See aforementioned tweaking and sharing. If that has to expand to training new models from scratch, expect them to get even smaller, and rely on experimentation more than brute force. Like BitNet reducing all weights to trinary. If it still takes a mountain of GPUs... well, SETI@home couldn't promise people interactive anime waifus.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Historically "AI" still doesn't exist.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 6 days ago

Technically even 1950s computer chess is classified as AI.