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I’m an Australian who’s terrified of Trump giving us an “them or us” ultimatum.
I’m starting to think it’s likely, and soon.
For what it’s worth: choose the 3rd path; pick the EU and/or the commonwealth countries
The EU has neither the industrial capacity of China nor the immense finances of the US, so the EU itself will have to choose who to rely on. If Australia pivots to the EU, they will be pivoting towards whoever the EU pivots towards.
i'm convinced that the eu would rather go down with the american ship rather than hitch their wagons to any alternative.
The rug has been pulled many times already, eventually the quantitative buildup will leap to a qualitative shift. Whether the EU lasts long enough for that is a separate question though...
We have magnitudes more trade with China than the USA. We are one of the few countries that buy more USA stuff than we sell to them. The only reason to stick with the USA would be if we trust them for defence reasons. What’s happening in Ukraine means we can’t. So it would likely be an own goal for Trump as we’d have to choose China over USA. The libs would go nuts, due to racism. We’d be objectively worse off, as an unreliable defence partner is still a partner, but if we ditched trade with China, our economy would collapse overnight.
America desperately needs us as a base in the South Pacific.
America also desperately needs us to not side with China in terms of Iron and Coal should an actual war happen.
Trump’s willingness to abandon their allies in the face of foreign aggression means we should seriously think before siding with the US.
They are burning bridges worldwide. They may reduce their overseas bases as part of their policy as they move more isolationist. They need troops in Germany and Taiwan and Korea too, but they are burning those bridges.
America may want us to not trade our iron and coal with China, but if it comes to an ultimatum, we likely will. America has less cards to play as a reliable partner as they become less reliable.
Giving in to bullies just leads to more bullying.
At least you will finally be free from the US yoke.
Doesn’t seem to be a difficult choice. The US is preying on its closest allies, threatening to annex Canada, and Greenland. China is not.
Taiwan would like a word.