I'll just post this here and get some popcorn.
this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2024
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no, the law is still very much real, statistical outliers, especially during times of significant upheaval, like complete economic collapse are to be expected with the word "tend", yet we see in basically every government of the world that follows said principle that this happens
There are two types of laws in science - absolute and statistical. Absolute laws always apply, at least within the framework in which they work. For example, the laws of thermodynamics. Statistical laws, on the other hand, are trends observed in nature. For example, Allen's rule. I do not question the fact that Duverger's law, in the form I quoted, is a statistical pattern. But a great deal of damage is caused by people who treat it as a law of nature, and try to metagame the electoral process.