Spaceflight

The Tianwen-2 spacecraft arrived at Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan province, southwest China, Feb. 20, according to a statement from the China National Space Administration (CNSA).

CNSA stated vaguely that the launch is scheduled to be carried out in the first half of this year. The mission was previously stated by officials to launch around May 2025 on a Long March 3B rocket.

Tianwen-2 will first target near-Earth asteroid Kamoʻoalewa (2016 HO3), considered a quasi-satellite of Earth due to its co-orbital dynamics. It aims to collect samples from the roughly 40 to 100-meter-diameter asteroid and deliver them to Earth around 2027. Kamoʻoalewa is possibly a chunk of the moon blasted into space following an impact event, according to researchers.

The main spacecraft will then head for main-belt comet 311P/PANSTARRS, which has asteroid-like orbital characteristics but also features comet-like activity.

To understand why the odds from NASA are changing and whether we should be concerned about 2024 YR4, Ars connected with Robin George Andrews, author of the recently published book How to Kill an Asteroid. Good timing with the publication date, eh?

Ars: Why are the impact odds increasing?

Robin George Andrews: The asteroid’s orbit is not known to a great deal of precision right now, as we only have a limited number of telescopic observations of it. However, even as the rock zips farther away from Earth, certain telescopes are still managing to spy it and extend our knowledge of the asteroid’s orbital arc around the Sun. The odds have fluctuated in both directions over the last few weeks, but overall, they have risen; that’s because the amount of uncertainty astronomers have as to its true orbit has shrunk, but Earth has yet to completely fall out of that zone of uncertainty. As a proportion of the remaining uncertainty, Earth is taking up more space, so for now, its odds are rising.

Think of it like a beam of light coming out of the front of that asteroid. That beam of light shrinks as we get to know its orbit better, but if Earth is yet to fall out of that beam, it takes up proportionally more space. So, for a while, the asteroid’s impact odds rise. It’s very likely that, with sufficient observations, Earth will fall out of that shrinking beam of light eventually, and the impact odds will suddenly fall to zero.

TL;DW:

• Impactor mass does not need to exceed 1000 kg.
• Launch vehicle requirements do not exceed the capabilities of a Falcon 9.
• Multiple launch opportunities are available in Autumn of 2028.
• The spacecraft could be launched after additional observations are made to pin down the exact orbit of the asteroid.

cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/32882295

The contract, announced by the Space Systems Command Feb. 13, is for a mission dubbed Victus Sol that will utilize Firefly’s Alpha rocket. The launch is part of the Tactically Responsive Space (TacRS) program, which aims to demonstrate the Space Force’s capability to rapidly deploy satellites during national security emergencies.

Details about the payload, mission objectives, and launch timeline are not being disclosed, according to a Space Safari spokesperson. Space Safari, the New Mexico-based office managing the TacRS program, operates under the Space Systems Command.

“This mission will provide the operational capability to have a launch vehicle and space vehicle on standby while we continue to launch other commercial and government missions until we’re called up by the Space Force,” said Firefly CEO Jason Kim.

Possibly a little far-fetched, but cool nevertheless!