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The best case scenario for everybody (except maybe Trump) is if Trump was removed from the primary ballots in every state.
Trump doesn't want to do the job. He didn't even try to do the job the last time he had it. At this point, his main reason for running is to stay out of prison.
And money. It was the most lucrative business his family ever run.
Pretty sure he wants to become a full on dictator
Only because he now realizes it’s possible. I think his main reason is that he thinks losing anything makes him weak and he wants to prove he’s not weak. Trump has only ever really cared about one thing: his image. Even his personal freedom and money come second to that, I’d bet.
Strange legacy to become a dictator an such an advanced age that you'll inevitably die soon after. There's no guarantee that even if Trump is elected in 2024 that he'd make it to 2028, since he's unusually unhealthy.
I don’t know that there is a best case for “everybody” at this point.
If Trump is blocked from running we will be hearing from his cult for the rest of time - and they will turn around and try to do this to others as payback (like they are doing with impeachment).
If Trump dies of a heart attack he becomes a martyr.
I think the best case is that he looses the primary. This might keep the Rs together as a party (sigh) but at least it will be their choice and maybe we can all move forward from there.
If Trump looses on the general we have another round of sore losers whining and trying to destroy democracy some more. Regardless of how that fight goes every day of it diminishes the country and boost in intensity would be bad.
If he wins the general election the country is SO very fucked — welcome to your new authoritarian apartheid anti-freedom etc state. At least that is their stated goal and it’s gonna be a horrible country damaging battle.
All of this is Rs and Trumps (MAGAs) fault. And they’re continuing to take the initiatives. I don’t have a broad strategy in mind so I’m ok with fighting them at each of these levels.
If Trump is blocked from running we will be hearing from his cult for the rest of time - and they will turn around and try to do this to others as payback (like they are doing with impeachment).
Yes, I think this is the best case scenario. The 14th Amendment is actually upheld. One of the other GOP candidates get to win the primary. This is their best outcome. The MAGA public gets to continue to whine and complain, which is clearly what they want more than anything. The Democrats get to win the election over the demoralized MAGA crowd. And everybody, whether MAGA or sane, gets to benefit from having competent politicians running the federal government.
I think the best case is that he looses the primary.
Yes, it is almost the same as my best case. The big difference to me, and I think this is important, is that the US Constitution is actually followed in my best case scenario.
A lot of liberals think the best case scenario is for Trump to lose in the general election. This seems like the third best outcome to me.
I agree with you that we absolutely don't want Trump to die. I think that would be a worst case scenario. I actually think that the best overall scenario (not just talking about the election now) is if the Dems keep the WH and Senate, and take over the House, however that happens, and that Trump lives quite a long time. Because Trump has been amazing at reducing the number of young people who become Republican. The longer he's alive, but out of power, the weaker the GOP becomes, long term.
If Trump is blocked from running we will be hearing from his cult for the rest of time
It doesn't matter what happens we will be hearing from them for the rest of time.
No shit. Idk how op can even pretend it's a factor.
They can't do anything except vote. Get over them.
I think him dying from a heart attack will not make him a martyr. He eats like shit and is in poor shape. Not everyone would believe it, but not so many that would be a problem. Like the dude is in the age bracket where it could happen and not be too surprising.
I think you underestimate his how many would believe. I don’t think MAGA types care about facts or health related statistics — all of which are signs of the liberal elite. Given the chance I think they’d make a martyr out of him just for spite.
Oh I don't underestimate them. However I don't think they will convince their children. Thus martyrism would be not possible for me.
I predict he will ultimately not be removed from any ballot in any state, even if the Supreme Court has to intervene.
even if the Supreme Court has to intervene.
You're absolutely right, and it would a total reversal of the courts conservative movement towards states rights.
Not when you consider 'states rights' was just code for 'gop power.'
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It doesn't matter. The rules are whatever Roberts shits out of his mouth.
Is there a chance that he'd win any of the states that are threatening to take him off the ballot?
Are there any other repercussions (other than not getting votes) to being excluded from some state ballots?
If removed from a swing state or a tradional GOP state, makes it harder to get enough electoral college votes.
He also could never win NY
Especially if. And really, you could take him off the ballot in many places (non-swing state) and have little effect.
This is the least newsworthy article ever. Literally everyone would abide by a court order to remove him or otherwise abide by the laws to include him if he meets the qualifications.
seems like a pretty optimistic take for 'we're waiting for everyone else to decide first'
Does this really matter? Are not the swing states the ones that actually decide the president?
Would likely hurt republican down ballot candidates as presumably a lot of trump voters that would have gone straight ticket will just skip the vote altogether.
Still would deny him Electoral College votes from those states. So yes, it counts.
I don't think NY splits electoral votes. To get any NY electoral votes, he'd have to carry the whole state.
Will this leave him off the ballot for the primary? He is expected to win the primary and this will pump the numbers for another GOP candidate. If enough states do this, it could give the convention the cover to select someone else.
It won't make much of a difference if only states that would vote Democrat anyway take him off the ballot.
If enough do, that could give one of Trump’s republican rivals momentum in Trump states.
Not if it’s a primary ballot
Think of the down ballot races. When tiny hands orange man isn't on the ballot, how many MAGA Rs stay home b.c. their cult leader isn't there? It would majorly shift the non-presidential races.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
In a November 3 letter, the NYSBOE informed U.S. District Judge Glenn Suddaby that the state agency is taking "no position" in the matter of Trump's candidacy and that it will "abide by any orders of judgements of the court."
The lawsuit challenging Trump's candidacy in New York is one of 27 that have been filed across the country by John Anthony Castro, a long-shot presidential candidate who argues Trump should be disqualified from running for president under the 14th Amendment because of his role in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
The constitutional clause in question bars individuals from holding public office if they have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion" against the United States.
"The evidence shows that Castro has not campaigned in New Hampshire or elsewhere," said U.S. District Court Judge Joseph Laplante.
On Wednesday, the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled against a separate petition to keep Trump off the state's primary ballot, while leaving the door open for another challenge should the former president eventually become the Republican nominee in the general election.
"There is no state statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office," the ruling states, adding that "because there is no error to correct here as to the presidential nomination primary...the petition must be dismissed."
The original article contains 501 words, the summary contains 233 words. Saved 53%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
As well they should. Not that he had any chance of winning there anyway, but it's the right thing to do regardless.