I wonder when this is going to seriously affect world oil demand? People used to think "Peak Oil" would be when supply was constrained, it turns out it will be when demand is constrained.
this post was submitted on 08 Oct 2023
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It will change when electric cars cost the same as a regular car. The cheapest EV in France is 3 times more expensive than my car. I can’t afford it.
I know my Chevy Bolt had a higher sticker price than other subcompacts but the TCO is way lower than anything else on the market thanks to way lower maintenance and operating costs.
Not to mention the $7500 tax credit and if you’re in CA there’s also a tax rebate (they send you a check).
Je suis curieux, tu parles de quelles voitures là ?
The cheapest Dacia or Skoda (according to the internet) costs 20 000 €. My car cost 7000 €. I don’t care about TCO if I can’t afford it to begin with.
It gives me 13 000 € of fuel for free, which is more than 10 years, the lifespan of the car.
As for the maintenance, my car costs 50 € per month at most which is reasonable. And even if the bank accepted a credit with a disgusting rate, I don’t have electric plugs around me, so…
The cheapest ICE Dacia is 12000€. I suspect you are comparing a new car price vs a used car price, which is quite unfair.
You can get a used Dacia or a used Zoe for a bit under 10000€, which has probably less km than your car (see this one https://zoomcar.fr/dacia-spring-business-2020-33479218.html, or the numerous Zoe). Now granted these are not great cars: but it is hard to compare a 5-10 year-old ICE with an electric, simply because the electric used market is still small as these cars are new.
Now you raise a valid point on the chargers. But this is coming and that's why no one (almost no one, I'm sure there are lunatics somewhere) wants to ban ICE right away. You ban new ones in 7 years, and this means that in 17 years a good majority of the cars will be electric. Chargers are quite quick to install, especially low power ones. There are many companies focusing on street light charging and as the number of electric cars grow, public chargers will become more available with a denser network. It's really a chicken and egg problem - they won't install massive amounts of chargers for them to stay unused.
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Based on this data, 48.6% of oil was used on the read. If we assume that about every other car becomes electric, that could cut the total oil demand by about 24%. That’s actually quite significant, but obviously it will happen so gradually that the oil industry should have enough time to adjust.
Eventually most cars will be electric, but even that won’t destroy the entire oil industry, because there are still many other uses for oil. It takes a while for various other industries to shift away from burning oil and gas, but when that happens the oil industry will be totally screwed.
It takes a while for various other industries to shift away from burning oil and gas, but when that happens the oil industry will be totally screwed.
I'm not so sure that they'd be necessarily screwed even then, I think it will depend upon what direction plastic demand and plastic production goes in. The majority of plastics still need to be made from petrochemicals, and the majority of plastics have to be virgin simply due to the inherent limitations on their recyclability.
Sure, the industry won't be as large as today but unless we see bioplastics completely replace petrochemical plastics or simply see plastics completely abandoned (that'll never happen, plastics are simply too useful to ditch entirely.) It will still exist in some form simply because it will be necessary for plastic production.
The oil industry isn’t about to go anywhere, that’s for sure. It’s just that within the next 100 years, it will probably shrink to a tiny fraction of what it is today.
Now that plastic bags or straws have been banned in certain parts of the world, the future of plastic is beginning to look slightly more uncertain than it used to, but I wouldn’t be too worried just yet. Microplastics are also lookin pretty concerning, so maybe in the very long run we’ll start addressing that as well. All of this might reduce the demand for plastic in general, but I don’t think that’s going to have a major impact any time soon. As you pointed out, plastics are too versatile to ditch entirely.
Maybe we’ll start using more bioplastics, but petrochemical based plastics will be used in many places regardless. At the moment, plastics are used pretty much everywhere, even when it clearly isn’t the most optimal solution. I think that this situation will begin to gradually change as the production and use of alternatives become economically attractive.
For instance, a plastic wrapping around a salad doesn’t need to last thousands of years. As long as it protects the salad all the way from the farm to my kitchen, It’s good enough. This sort of optimization will probably reduce the demand for plastic, but it will probably never go down to zero. There are lots of applications such as chemical bottles where long term durability is far more important.
The shitty thing is that as it puts the pressure on big oil, prices will rise and hurt poor people the hardest. We’re already being squeezed by the cost of gas, and when demand gets low the price will continue to go up until poor people are forced to choose between gas and food or an EV and food.
Why will oil be able to raise the prices? Seems like with less demand it'd be cheaper.
Same reason why oil prices keep going up even as demand drops, the price of oil is largely determined by OPEC+ and they will cut production until prices rise to where they want them, and the more they have to cut production the higher the prices have to be to offset their fixed costs. More oil = more total revenue = lower price floor for profits.
That’s what you’d think. But they’re capitalists and will squeeze every penny they can to their dying breath.
Supply and demand is largely a myth, especially in markets like oil where it’s practically a monopoly.
Is not a monopoly though, yes there are cartels but it’s not a monopoly. The less demand there is for oil the less power OPEC has to manipulate prices. They will be left scrambling to supply the remaining demand. Supply and demand isn’t a myth, OPEC simply manipulate supply to influence the price.
The fact that they can just manipulate supply I what makes supply and demand a farce with oil. Demand doesn’t change the price, only supply.
Oil and gas could still be cheap today, there’s no shortage of oil at all, so they create the conditions necessary to benefit them. They’ll do exactly the same thing as demand for oil peters out, but they’ll wring the neck of that goose tighter and tighter until it finally dies. And it’s the people who can’t afford a new car that will suffer the worst when that happens.
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Would be nice if there were more than the one or two charging stations that are around me. Well out of my normal way, and are at some random hotel chain miles from my house.
If you own a home, it should be pretty easy to get a charger like a dryer plug. If you rent, it might be trickier to work something out.
Not only if you don't own your home, but also if you own a city apartment instead.
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That's cool but all modern EVs are simply impossible to work on and what's worse is they come with telemetry so that every move in my own car is watched.
Call me when they have a "dumb" EV. I would be fine with a lower range
What work needs to be done on EVs? I think it's much less complex so as long as your battery and motors are good then the rest is just like AC and stuff right? Battery and motors would cost a lot to replace but the battery at least should last a very long time, similar to a car engine. No idea about motors.
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