this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2023
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[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (7 children)

Does anyone else think that being seen as weak and capitulating to Prigozhin here is basically a death sentence to Putin?

Doing that has to have just put SO MUCH blood in the water for every internal agency/power-block with aspirations of taking him down and replacing him.

Apparently all you need is 20,000 men and Putin's defenceless...

My opinion is that this is going to cause chaos.

The fact that Putin didn't have Wagner immediately atomized on the spot suggests that he wasn't powerful enough to do so. Not a statement that someone in Putin's position would want to make, I would think.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Of course we both are speculating without any proof, I am also merely speaking of my gut feeling.

I have been thinking that the rhetoric of saying Putin is weak because Prigozhin was able to momentarily rebel is kind of wishful thinking. I think weak is a pretty strong word.

If Putin is as weak as some of us think he is, Prigozhin would have continued to march towards Moscow already.

At the same time, if Putin is as strong as some of us think he is, his army would have reached Kyiv with a new regime installed already.

Hence the truth should be lying somewhere in between, for now.

I know it's not something many people want to hear because it isn't a polarized statement, for example, it's not as exciting as saying Putin is super strong and can nuke everything, we better bow down to him or Ukraine is super strong and can occupy Moscow tomorrow, let's give them F-35.

The reality is war is a boring and extremely slow meat grinder. Sometimes you cannot stop it once it's started (because deaths can be remembered for a long time) and sometimes you cannot avoid it (forever appeasement is not far from escalating the situation and empowering the bully which is worse off). I can only wish that Ukraine winning the war can prevent the potential China-Taiwan war from happening.

When new weapons arrive on site, I expect things to change. I wish Ukraine get Crimea back.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

Clearly, if Prigozhin marched, it's because he thought it as having a valid chance of success. He left because he was paid what he wanted, be it money or power, etc. Putin, notably capitulated

He did not carpet bomb the fuck, so to speak, out of the traitors. Those threatening his reign. It tells much for those who wish to hear.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

Yes! Putin is not some superduper strongman that controls his country as his public persona pretends. He is the guy that the key leaders of Russia allow to be in charge. The moment he is unable to meet their needs is the moment he is replaced. Those key leaders just saw that Putin came this close 🤏 to losing their power to an unpredictable madman, and Putin let the guy off because that was his only option!

Putin's days are numbered. He not only left Moscow vulnerable to attack, he gave someone the power to demonstrate it on the world stage. Before Feb 2022, Russia was internationally feared as the world's second strongest military, and now, the joke is that it's the second strongest military in Russia. That someone even outed that the whole premise of the invasion of Ukraine was false, that the military is terribly messing it up, and that Russia itself is vulnerable to attack. Those key leaders want to maintain their power, and Putin is not the man to do it anymore.

I think there is nothing Putin can do short of a complete Stalin-like Great Purge to stay alive, and I think that purge is impossible with its international relations as he has made enemies with everyone in the West. Putin is rightfully scared. Prigozhin, whether purposefully or in a oblivious narcissistic rage fit, just sealed the fate of Russia. This will undoubtedly encourage other leaders to take a swing at Putin, which makes him a liability to the key leaders' power. Either Russia has to embrace a democratic revolution where power is stripped from the oligarchs (very unlikely considering opposition disorganization and the country's economic contributions to the world stage) or a new more authoritarian leader will step in place to reign in control again. Those are the options, so I forsee life in Russia for the general population getting much worse quickly.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

A lot of people are saying that this weakened Putin, put the seed of rebellion in the minds of people, etc. But i disagree. The problem with Russia is that it isnt authoritarian enough. You might think that it is funny that i say this but it is true. The most unstable governments are the ones who havent gone full authoritarian or full democratic. It's the middle area that is dangerous. With this war, Russia was becoming more and more authoritarian. And now after the coup, the deal will be sealed.

Putin will unify the military and use this coup as an excuse to clamp things down even more. Noone would even be allowed to have any kind of personal military, noone would be allowed to say anything against the government. This was already the case before but now it will be even more. Prigozhin was talking shit for over a year, Putin realizes that it was a mistake to let that happen.

As long as things in Ukraine remain somewhat static(or better for Russia), Putin is safe. If Russia losses Zaporizhia, Putin will be in danger.

PS The failed coup against Erdogan also empowered him and allowed him to consolidate power and purge the opposition.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Putin controls oligarchs through his wealth. Prigozhin can't do that, and both of the two know it. We'll see who's really fucked up now. Prigozhin or Luca.

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (1 children)
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[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

If I were Prigozhin, I wouldn't return to Russia after the war. I wouldn't even eat or drink anything in which might have even the slightest chance of having radioactive material.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

He's moving to Belarus, which may as well be the same thing.

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago

Traffic restrictions on Russia's M-4 Don highway remain in force in Moscow, Tula regions:

https://tass.com/society/1638033

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (8 children)

I strongly disagree with the decision to centralize all ukraine war news in a megathread.

That's not how information is consumed on a medium like Lemmy. What you're doing makes the topic invisible for the vast majority of users.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Yessssss. The mega thread returns!! Now I can delete Reddit! ❤️

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was planning armed action in Russia:

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/UUac7

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

New aid package to Ukraine from Australia announced

*"70 additional vehicles will include 28 armoured trucks, and 28 M113 armoured vehicles, taking the total gifted to 56. It also includes 14 special operations vehicles. It will also fund additions to artillery ammunition, and $10m to the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs.

“This is about helping the Ukrainian people with shelter, health services, clean water and sanitation,” prime minister Albanese says.

This additional support will make a real difference, helping the Ukrainian people who continue to show great courage in the face of Russia’s illegal, unprovoked and immoral war. It is sobering that 16 months on from Russia’s invasion, its brutal conflict continues."*

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Where are the bases the Wagner group are returning to? I hope they are not returning to fight against Ukrainians.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

Wagner forces will integrate conventional russian forces. In a few weeks, Wagner will no longer exist. And of course, the soldiers will probably return to occupied Ukraine. Let's see if they will return to south of Ukraine or Kharkiv.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

Ukraine advances continue in the Bakhmut axis.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/110652174384321351

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

Wonder what the over/under on number of days until Prigozhin accidentally falls out a window are.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Authorities not to persecute Wagner fighters participating in mutiny — Kremlin:

https://tass.com/politics/1637963

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

*Ukrainian forces widened their control at Lobkove/P'yatykhatky and reached the outskirts of Robotyne.

Furthermore, Russians have deployed their reserves to stop the Ukrainian advance while Ukrainians still haven't deployed their main force.

#Ukraine #Counteroffensive #Zaporizhzhia * https://newsie.social/@Tendar/110651371008698222

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

The Dnipro river at Zaporizhzhia city before and after the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam.

#Zaporizhzhia #Ukraine #Dnipro

https://newsie.social/@Tendar/110650593171933811

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Russia hits Security Service building in Sumy on 3 July – Zelenskyy

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/3/7409697/

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Hi all ... kind of a meta non-news question.

I've been thinking about getting a person who writes great Russia-Ukraine threads over on Mastodon to post their threads here. I've got a general post about the possibility here: https://lemmy.ml/post/1528973.

I've also pestered @[email protected] via DM.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on whether there'd be a good fit here.

The main point is to make it as easy as possible for them by allowing them to post from mastodon still. So the ideal would be that they would create new posts here and create a thread within that post, to which people would be free to comment on of course.

Except that doesn't seem to fit within the rules here, especially rule [1.1] Submissions must be links to news articles..

Thing is, this person's threads are full of citations of or links to Telegram sources from within Russia or the region, basically a thread of primary sources that the author is compiling into a digestible narrative. It might really be something people here would appreciate, especially as I discovered them through links provided in a megathread on here.

Sooo ... I'm wondering what you think and whether there might be some scope to alter the rules and allow for this sort of thing ... the idea would be that it's something like a journalist live reporting.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Hi,

While Rule [1.1] applies to the main submission post, we would like to clarify that in the case of our mega thread, posting links to social media sources (such as Mastodon) is acceptable as they will be placed in the comments section of the thread.

As of now, we don't have much experience with cross-posting from Mastodon to Lemmy. However, if you can provide us with some examples, we can explore the possibility of incorporating it in some way. Your input and examples would greatly assist us in understanding the process better and potentially adopting it within our community.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

On posting directly to a megathread ... thanks! While this is good, and has already happened in megathreads (I forget which I saw it in), it doesn't lean into the federation of content that can happen which is what I'm trying to see more of. That is, not just "cross-posting" but the same thread existing on two platforms simultaneously in much the same way lemmy communities exist on multiple instances simultaneously.

Otherwise, happy to talk about the mastodon<->lemmy "cross-posting".

Here's a basic demo I've written, posting from Mastodon to [email protected] : https://hachyderm.io/@maegul/110483509521476095 And here's the view of the post on lemmy: https://lemmy.ml/post/1142168

You'll see that both lemmy and mastodon users can comment or reply with the only difference being how the two platforms display the threads (lemmy doing a much nicer job IMO)

The key machansim is that lemmy communities federate to mastodon as "users" that can be "at-ed" like any other user from mastodon. Lemmy then interprets such a post as a new post to the "at-ed" community, takes the first line as the title and the rest as the body. The only trickiness is that lemmy will only pay attention to the first "at-ed" handle, to prevent cross-posting and spam.


What I initially imagined was that someone could start their own journalistic megathreads here by doing exactly the above and then replying to their previous post to create a thread on mastodon and a chain of comments to a "megathread" post here on lemmy. This would be the easiest for the person posting from mastodon.

The difficulty for you is that it would be a post that isn't necessarily to a news source, but just a stand alone post ... though the person I'm asking on behalf of is almost always providing sources/links.

Beyond that there'd be your policy of confining all Russia-Ukraine war stuff to the megathread. On this, they could reply to the megathread and basically embed their mastodon thread within the megathread. This would work well. It's just that finding the megathread from mastodon and replying to it can be non-trivial and may not be available all the time.

For instance, I can't find the current megathread on my mastodon account and I don't know why ... it's probably an instance visibility problem and will get better now that I've subscribed/followed [email protected] from my mastodon instance. So this may become a good way forward without much hassle.

As for the kind of threads I'm thinking of ... here's an example: https://hachyderm.io/@mariyadelano/110599817912125441

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Russian losses per 04/07/23 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+770 men

+2 tanks

+9 APVs

+32 (!) artillery pieces

+6 MLRS

+3 AD systems

+29 UAVs

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/110654342657544393

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Lukashenko shares some more details about the day of Prigozhin's mutiny.

He reveals there were no defense lines in Russia up until 200 km from Moscow (some regions are more equal than others?) and carefully chooses words to present Putin as a strong leader, while pointing out it was Lukashenko who did all the negotiating.

https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/110674608156175504

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230704-we-need-a-lot-more-lack-of-firepower-hampers-ukraine-s-advance-on-zaporizhzhia-front-line

‘We need a lot more’: Lack of firepower hampers Ukraine’s advance on Zaporizhzhia front line As Ukraine’s top army general has put it, every metre of ground in the country’s counteroffensive is being won “with blood”. The Ukrainian soldiers’ progress is particularly gruelling in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region. FRANCE 24’s Gwendoline Debono reports from the front line, where Russian forces are giving Ukraine’s artillerymen no respite.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Ukraine soldiers using drones to supply encircled friendly soldiers

https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/110653196828315272

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

In Russia, they've begun to destroy cemeteries of dead fighters of the Wagner PMC.

https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/110651900872703905

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)
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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

This morning the Moscow region was attacked by unknown drones. An explosion is reported on the territory of a military unit in Kubinka, the neighboring Vnukovo airport has stopped accepting aircraft.

https://mastodon.social/@[email protected]/110654348854138696

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