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Presidential Poll Numbers as of 8/28: (lemmy.world)

submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

9 comments fedilink hide all child comments

I run this analysis in Politics whenever there's a post about "New national poll says..." but we don't allow self posts over there so it's always buried in a comment.

National polls are useless because we don't have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.

So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:

Let's see the state breakdown now:

Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/

Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5

Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

So... changes from last time...

Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.

Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.

all 11 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Looks good, but complacency is the devil. Harris has been calling herself the underdog in this race and she's right. Because of the screwy way we do presidential elections, the Democrat is always going to be the underdog, and going to need to fight harder to win in a contest stacked against them.

I think that's what Clinton didn't really quite get in 2016. It wasn't enough that she had popular support. She had to have popular support in the few states that actually matter in American presidential elections.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 weeks ago

Yup. The coal miner comment was a killer and then utterly failing to campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin, assuming they were in the bag.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

These poll numbers don't account for independents and third parties, correct? Wouldn't you want to include these in the polls given the possibility of people not voting for Harris due to her Gaza stance?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Michigan very much does and it's not significant.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

8/25 to 28:
Harris - 47%
Trump - 44%
Oliver (Libertarian) - 1%
Stein (Green) - 1%

8/23 to 26:
Harris - 49%
Trump - 47%
Oliver - 2%
Stein - 0%

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 weeks ago

I was actually thinking of Michigan when making my comment. I was curious about the numbers. Thanks for providing them.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

Updated for 9/8:

The last time I did this, Arizona flipped to full Trump, Georgia was leaning to Harris, but still a toss up and she was still ahead in Michigan, but losing ground there.

Let's see what it looks like now:

AZ - WOW(!) 4 most recent polls are ALL ties(!)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

NV - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

NM - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

GA - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

NC - Trump +1, +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

PA - Trump +1, +2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

MI - Harris +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

WI - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +2, Tied
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

MN - Harris +5, +7, +11

So, Arizona is out of the Trump column and back to toss up.

GA, NC and PA moving away from Harris.

MI I'm tempted to call a toss up but no recent polling there gives Trump an advantage, so it's still slimly Harris as is NC and PA Trump.

WI moves from Harris to toss up and it seems likely MI will follow next week.

Plot that on the map and we get:

Trump needs 16. So GA by itself, or any two of WI, AZ, NV.

Harris needs 29. WI, AZ, NV is NOT enough. 27. So if Trump wins Georgia, she's done.

She needs Georgia + 2 other states to win. Georgia +1 is not enough. The most she could get that way is 27 with AZ.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

Updated for 9/4:

As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we're at...

Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.

Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.

Let's look at the map:

So, of the "Undecideds", PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.

PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.

So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.

If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.

Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.

[+] [email protected] -10 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

[removed by mod]

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Workers rights? The CWA disagrees:

https://cwa-union.org/kamala-harris-champion-working-people

"Vice President Harris serves as the Chair of the White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment. In doing so, she has helped advance dozens of policies to make it easier for workers to organize, to raise wages, and to strengthen workers’ bargaining power.

In the Vice President’s role as the president of the United States Senate, Harris has cast tiebreaking votes to confirm CWA’s former counsel Jennifer Abruzzo to serve as General Counsel of the National Labor Relations Board, to pass the Inflation Reduction Act to create green manufacturing jobs and to lower our prescription drug costs, and to pass the American Rescue Plan to save our pensions and to dig the economy out of the recession that she and President Biden inherited.

In 2023, Harris cancelled an appearance at an event to avoid crossing a picket line, and changed her hotel reservations for another event to avoid crossing a picket line held by the hotel’s workers.

Vice President Harris has personally met a number of times with CWA leaders and CWA rank-and-file members to hear our concerns and make sure that the White House’s agenda supports our needs."

Women's rights? Pretty sure her stance on restoring reproductive rights is clear:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/19/vice-president-kamala-harris-launches-reproductive-freedoms-tour/

Which, you know, is also health care.