She polls a head. He polls a head. There are inherent problems with polling and sample bias.
But good. Grab him by the polling girl.
this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2024
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But good. Grab him by the polling girl.
According to Stormy, there's not much to grab by.
This comment could mushroom.
That's exactly what I came to say. It's kind of annoying honestly, every other article is "Trump ahead" "Kamal ahead" "Trump leads!" "Kamala gains on Trump!" Like wtf
What they don't tell people is that the margin of error is like 6% for these polls, everything within that margin is up to interpretation.
Well if Nate Silver says so!
He posted an essay on the topic a while back. He gets a lot of shit for getting things wrong using the same data everyone else was using and who also got things wrong; I think the second time, he really started to look into the problems with polling and, in particular, how other predictors were performing.
He was unfortunately the face of the polling failures in 2016, but he's a first class statistician. People easily forget part of the reason he was so vilified is because, until 2016, 538 was the reliable source for predictions, which speaks as much to how good he is as the subsequent failures. Something went really wrong with polling in the mid-2010s.
Something went really wrong with polling in the mid-2010s.
It became much easier to ignore pollster calls. People were dropping land lines entirely, and gained the capability of automatically ignoring unknown callers. When I was younger, if the phone rang, you answered it. Voice calls simply don't carry that kind of importance with younger generations, so the respondents to pollsters are going to skew towards older people (and probably some other demographics).
The problem with cold-call polling is that the respondents are necessarily "people who answer the phone for an unknown caller" and then "actually interact with that caller." How do you weight your polling to consider the opinions of people you cannot get responses from?
The lack of FCC enforcement has virtually made it a necessity. I get anywhere between 8-12 scam calls a day, and it'd be more if I actually answered them. I use the google call screener these days, but yeah, if I answered ever unknown call, I'd go barking mad.
The gambling markets shift enormously as elections approach and people start worrying about their money. In 2020, they were consistent for a long time that Trump would win, then shifted to match reality late in the election.
Especially this early in Kamala Harris' run, I wouldn't pay much attention to the gamblers.
I figured she was OK because she is obviously better than the Trump MAGA weirdness. And I figured she would have better chance of winning than Biden.
But honestly she has been quickly gaining a lot beyond that on me, Harris is actually quite good IMO on any political view she has mentioned since Biden withdrew.
Also some of the old smear against her, has been thoroughly debunked, I really hope she wins.
It's been a week. I'd have been shocked if she was ahead already. Some of the polls in this aggregate were even taken before Biden stepped down, for Christ's sake.
The momentum is going in the right direction, but there is still a lot of work to be done. She has had a fairly quiet Vice Presidency, while Trump is a household name. It's a good thing she's gotten all those campaign fund donations, because she's going to need them.
AND HERE THEY COME DOWN THE FIRST CORNER, IT'S TRUMP BY A NOSE WITH HARRIS CLOSING THE GAP
OH MERCY ALL OUR FREEDOMS AND THE FUTURE OF THE DEMOCRATIC EXPERIMENT ARE ON THE LINE! AND IT'S HARRIS MOVING UP NECK AND NECK! WHAT AN EXCITING RACE LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE
Come on Harris, come on Harris... poppa needs a new filling!
Me in Jan 2016: "This election ought to be interesting. Hope we can do better than Obama, if at all possible."
Me in July 2024:
She needs better than +2% (typically) to beat the EC bias.