this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2024
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UK Politics

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This is opinion. So read it as such. But consider it please.

Obviously if you read this based on the title. I assume you oppose the Tories.

But if you are wondering why labour are so keen to manage expectations. There is a reason.

Campaign funding wise the Tories are estimated to be 19m ahead of labour. But honestly at the moment they are not spending a huge amount more.

We know the Tories are skilled at election manipulation. So there is genuine fear that the Tories plan to launch a campaign within the last few days.

I.E. when there is less time and funding to ensure fact checking is effective.

They know Starmer is more publicity aware then Corbyn was. He is able to play it in a way that dose not scare traditional Conservative voters.

They also know thanks to Boris, that the courts are unable to punish them for outright lies during any political campaign. And that Rishi is prepared to lie about and accuse civil servants of lying when challenged.

As huge as polling is against the Tories. All it would take is some dramatic claim against the party or Starmer. To convince Tory traditional voters to bite their tongue and vote Tory. While convincing left wing voters not to vote or to switch to 3rd party in seats where labour are the 1st or 2nd party.

The fact we know they have a huge amount of money unspent. Makes it clear they plan to launch something nearer the end of the election. And the only advantage of leaving it so late. Is it will limit the ability of the party to effectively react. Or fact checkers to be able to prove and distribute evidence of lies.

Please be prepared for this.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Everyone, just please go and vote if you are able to. It's very little time out of your day and it's only once every few years. Remember that you do need photo ID this time

If you are interested in tactical voting, something our electoral system unfortunately incentivises, then there is https://stopthetories.vote/ to vote against the Conservatives

[–] [email protected] 18 points 6 months ago (3 children)

It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour. I know splitting the left wing vote isn't tactically smart, but voting for labour isn't even a left wing vote anymore :(

(I'm still pro-tactical voting, I'm just doing it with more frustration than ever before)

[–] [email protected] 18 points 6 months ago (3 children)

There will literally be Tory trolls/bots pushing this narrative to split the Labour vote. Get the Tories out, then push Labour for PR, hard, to keep Tories out of unjust power.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 6 months ago (1 children)

This is the exact same problem in the United States and even Canada right now. It's leading me to believe it's the inevitable conclusion of a first past the post system.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 months ago (1 children)

FPTP has to go, but the further right the government, the hard it is to push them for it. A right Labour is better odds then any Conservative flavor, and it's not like the Conservatives are moving left right now.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 months ago (2 children)

PR (well, some forms of it) is less bad than FPTP but it's not a panacea. Most PR systems have the problem that they give disproportionate power to unprincipled centrist parties that can make or break coalitions, at the expense of parties with more distinct agendas. This can lead to situations where the centrists are always there, regardless of how the election went, like the Free Democrats in Germany for many years. So if you want the LibDems to hold the whip hand, go for PR, since that result is as inevitable as the emergence of two big parties under FPTP.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

I'd enjoy that scenario as a Lib Dem member

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 months ago

What I wanted hasn't been implemented.

I want Mixed Member PR (Germany and New Zealand have this), but with score/range voting instead.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

I used to be a party member but left years ago when it got rough! Maybe getting back into politics more directly is the way to go: changing parties from within!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

then push Labour for PR, hard

What do you think this looks like? Like, what, you're gonna withhold your vote next time, letting a different party take advantage of FTPT, or vote for them anyway, because you're still trying to keep the tories out of power?
There is absolutely no incentive for them to change the system while in power.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

If the public mood is turned against PR and everywhere is calling it undemocratic and their government illegitimate, they may not feel they have a choice. Especially since their membership want it.

The media is largely right wing (because the rich are rightwing) and the right have been able to use FPTP to have unrepresentative governments for decades. But now, with the right split, all of a sudden FPTP might keep them out of power. So the wealthy may turn on FPTP too.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

If the public mood is turned against PR and everywhere is calling it undemocratic and their government illegitimate, they may not feel they have a choice.

Damn, they may feel they don't have a choice? Definitely sounds like you know what you're talking about. We'll just hope they feel like they have to do it, something that definitely has plenty of historical precedent. What actual physical actions are you thinking of taking that would make them feel they don't have a choice?

Also confusing - when you talk about the right using FTPT for decades, are you thinking "since 2012" or "since 1708"? Because neither of those are time periods you'd measure in decades.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

I follow a lot of politics, and grew up in a political family. But I'm just an interested bystander.

As right in power, even if you don't include New Labour, it's more Right government.

This shows the last 100 years (p12) https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7529/CBP-7529.pdf

14 Conservative governments and 9 Labour

(I counted the two coalition governments as Tory due to them by the major party in the coalition)

Yet the majority of that time, progressives have been in the majority, but out of government because they are split over multiple parties. Plus a rightwing bias media placing a thumb on the scales as much as they can for the right.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (1 children)

I don't know what questions you think you're answering, but they aren't mine.

We have used FTPT since the creation of the house of commons in 1708. It's over 300 years of "the right [having] been able to use FPTP to have unrepresentative governments for decades". That's 30 decades, an unreasonable number to summarise as just decades. As a subpoint, [citation needed] on progressives being a majority - your file shows the Conservatives have averaged 40% of the vote for most of the last 100 years, with the Lib Dems taking another 10-20% most of the time, and 50-60% of the vote is definitely a majority before you start adding the conservative members of supposedly liberal parties like labour.

Secondly, nothing you said names a single actual action you're willing to take to pressure Labour. If you were being realistic you'd have said something like mail bombing or arson, but you haven't even said you'll write an angry letter or something. There's just this gap of thinking where they get into power, and then something vague happens that makes them do the right thing. Back in 2002/3 me and 36 million other people worldwide took to the streets protesting plans to invade Iraq. On the 15th of February the largest demonstration in history occured worldwide, with close to a million people marching in London alone. IT had absolutely no effect on government policy, with our nominally progressive government throwing their full support behind the invasion, so what are you going to do this time that will actually effect change?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Are you saying you think FPTP has delivered representative Parliament?

As for action, I bash FPTP every chance I get, including here on Lemmy. But also Reddit (less now), Mastadon and Twitter. I do write into some of the main stream political podcasts I listen to. I voted for AV. Though I don't think large marches have a good history in recently. With Iraq and Brexit being examples. But I'd join a voting change one anyway.

But when voting under FPTP my priority is get the Torys out. Anyway trying to convince people not to prioritize that I think are actually pro-Tory.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Are you saying you think FPTP has delivered representative Parliament?

What? Are you actually reading what I'm writing? How did you get this idea from what I said?

As for action, I bash FPTP every chance I get, including here on Lemmy. But also Reddit (less now), Mastadon and Twitter. I do write into some of the main stream political podcasts I listen to.

So you say that you don't like FPTP, especially on niche internet communities, and write in to podcasts. Could you explain to me how these influence the actual Labour Party? Like I used the example of an angry letter as a joke about completely ineffectual action, but you're genuinely suggesting that writing an angry letter to someone with no connection to the Labour Party is action.

I voted for AV.

oh god i'm gonna vote
You really are a parody of liberal activism.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Voting is how you change things in a democracy and that is the only systems worth having. Even FTPT is still going to give the Tories a massive kicking for their unkind racist crapness. Parties change with the environment their are in or they lose support. So shaping the environment is important. That why you get advocate groups.

Anyway, I've noticed your a hexbear so .....

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Parties change with the environment their are in or they lose support.

So why aren't you pressuring the Tories to support PR? Surely if the parties change according to the will of the voters you can just influence any of the parties in the same way, by just voting for them.
Besides, your original claim was that you could vote labour in, then pressure them to adopt PR - why is it now the voting itself that's going to pressure them? I'll admit it at least has some link to the labour party, unlike writing letters to podcasts, but you were saying there was going to be a vague something after the voting that changed their minds.

Anyway, I've noticed your a hexbear so .....

So what? I've noticed you're a fedd, but you don't hear me harping on about it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Because they and their voters had no interest. But they might now!

Hexbear has a rep.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Because they and their voters had no interest. But they might now!

No, shut the fuck up, voting for the tories to get PR in was not a serious suggestion, I'm making fun of the complete incoherence of the idea that voting is somehow going to magically make a party suddenly support and push through PR. By unironically agreeing with it you're demonstrating a complete lack of experience, or even basic understanding, of any aspect of liberal democracy.
Like I'm genuinely trying to be kind here by walking you through how illogical your claims are, but you're so drunk on the kool aid you don't even understand what's so ridiculous about trying to influence a party by going to the ballot box and voting for them - of trying to change someone's behaviour by throwing your support behind their current behaviour.

Hexbear has a rep

This isn't fair, I'm autistic. It's geniunely stressful for me that people like you, not even intelligent enough to finish a sentence when specifically prompted, think that their ideas and opinions are as valid as mine. You genuinely believe that you have inherent right to spew whatever stupid shit comes to mind and that it's just as valid as the reasoned statements other people make, despite not being to articulate any part of your piont - fuck, your ability to read is suspect considering your pitiful attempts at staying on subject. Let me be as specific as fucking possible, so there's no way for you to answer the wrong questions again:

describe this vague "rep" you stupid nonce

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (1 children)

Yer, I'm out. This isn't worth it. Just vote to keep the Tories out, which ever party than needs to be where you are (bar Reform), or don't complain about them.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Why the actual fuck would I listen to your political advice when your recommendation for getting rid of FPTP is to... just engage with the FPTP system by voting for a party that doesn't particularly want to get rid of it? You can't think that you have serious opinions, you can't even articulate anything about this "rep" you so fear. Your idea of political action is writing fanmail to podcasts. How on earth do you think you have the political understanding to comment on politics?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Fine. Don't vote. But don't complain things don't change. Perfect is the enemy of good. Me, I'm for getting rid of Tories then FPTP. I know the first is on offer, I hope for the second. As do the majority of Labour party members, so I have hope.

Refusing to vote just gets you ignored. It's also being peddled by the rightwing to try and disengage left leaners and reduce their voting power. Both in the UK and US. This Labour might to be as left as many would like, but they are more left than this Conservatives.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

You are literally illiterate. I never said I wouldn't vote, I said you are trying to change the voting system by using it, without doing anything that would actually change the voting system, and as such you political advice is worthless. Less than worthless, in fact, seeing as it doesn't even go beyond voting. Literally the only thing you'll do is vote, and when your vote changes nothing you'll go back in 5 years and uncritically vote again.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

I'm dyslexic and even paying the half attention I have, is probably too much for what seams to be hexbear trolling. Nothing says troll more than torrents of insults.

If your real, just vote too keep Tories out or don't complain about them. Then advocate for better voting to keep them out of unchecked power again.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago

You're well aware that dyslexia is no excuse for refusing to engage with the content of people's arguments, and that you are literally advocating inaction as a method of political change, so the insults are more than justified. That you flinch from political discussion at the hint of incivility just shows how deeply unserious and indefensible your liberalism is.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 6 months ago

I’m just doing it with more frustration than ever before

Pretty sure that represents the labour lead atm. Def folks wanting to vote against tories rather then for labour. Unfortunately it also leave the Tories with an open attack vector. They just need to time the right attack to dramatically split the left vote in Lab seats where they are still 2nd.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 months ago (1 children)

It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour.

Why? The Tories are barreling towards literal fascism, anything that will stop that is good. Could Labourbe better, absolutely, but it is not worth falling into what America has become just to spite them for being centralist and unambitious.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Some of Labour's recent policies (and stances on Palestine, trans people, etc) are scary and harmful. It's emotionally hard having to vote for a party that has spoken about removing your rights.

Pragmatically though: I know voting Labour will still shift things towards being better, even if that "better" is way worse than I wanted, and I would never begrudge anyone for voting for them. There's always more we can do in-between elections anyway

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Edit: This is rambly and long and probably wrong, it's not worth anyone's time to read. Sorry.

I'm not trying to persuade you to vote Labour (I'm not voting them), but isn't their current trans policy a slight improvement over now? Only needing approval and a diagnosis of dysphoria from one doctor, not having to live openly as your preferred gender for two years.

Its still not remotely good enough, and will continue to see people die, but hopefully fewer people. Its a tiny little crumb. Like, the UK is transphobic to a shocking extent. And it would be good if the supposedly left-wing party properly stood for minority rights, instead of being bellends on refugees and trans people.

To be honest, this isn't even really directed at you, I'm mainly just talking it through for myself, a proud socialist questioning my gender. Sorry.

Tories have been trying to fight this election on immigration and trans people, as a replacement for their Boris and Brexit campaign in 2019 that beat Corbyn. Starmer has seemingly been trying to avoid giving them any ammo in this regard.

But Labour has a massive lead in the polls, even if it took a 5% hit by properly defending trans people, it could easily afford it, rather than making the climate even more unsafe. Maybe this policy is a tiny step towards that?

I've always maintained that even voting for the lesser of two evils is the least you can do, basic harm reduction, while then protesting and direct action and everything else on any other day.

But with Labour so far ahead, how important is it that they win every Tory marginal? But what matters more, stopping Labour from having the biggest majority ever, or pushing the Tories into 3rd? And every seat Labour takes from the Tories pushes them closer to the LibDems.

I saw Richard Drax predicted to lose Dorset South for the first time, and that filled me with such joy that I wouldn't even care if he lost it to Starmer himself. Fuck the Tories.

The rivers and the oceans are full of actual shit.

I don't know. I don't know what I'd vote in a predicted Tory-Labour marginal. Thankfully I live in a Labour safe seat and am free to campaign and vote with my conscience.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 months ago

No need to apologise, I agree :)

I'm also in a labour safe seat, and grateful I can vote my conscience, I'm just sad other people aren't so fortunate. Labour are saying some tiring stuff now to win over the Conservative voter base: it's the one time where I hope that politicians lie. Let's hope that Labour uses their win for good things, as they've promised in previous years.

May we all get to vote for more positive things within the next decade 💚

[–] [email protected] 16 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Some of the voters are a bit scary too. I keep hearing a clip from LBC where some asks Starmer if he would've been in Corbyn's cabinet.

Starmer kicked Corbyn out. That's years ago. Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.

Finally, who are the 20% that would still vote Tory? Rich business people with no ethics?

[–] [email protected] 8 points 6 months ago

Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.

Because that is where the Tories are likely spending some money. They keep bringing up the he supported Corbyn. They and the right wing of labour spent in the last election to destroy his reputation. So the Tory party sees it as a cheap attack to push the idea over social media.

I am a little disappointed that it is not answered with, how Rishi was willing to support a PM candidate with a racist publications in the media and later willing to lie to parliament to prevent their ability to shut down his policies.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Starmer purged the left wing from his party, he can't be surprised when they don't vote for him.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Agreed. But its not about starmer being good. Its about being less bad then the Tories.

FPTP is an utter fuck over of an electoral system. That leaves very few places where voting 3rd party or even not voting is not a vote for Tory rule.

Its unpleasant but a simple fact that evil is quantifiable. When your choice is limited via the voting system. Refusing to vote for the lesser of 2 evils basically means you support goes to the greater.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago

The fight to resist evil is never wholly successful, but always necessary.

[–] BakedGoods 8 points 6 months ago

Remind your elders that a vote for Tories or Reform will result in them being alone, in a terrible home, or in the street.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 6 months ago (2 children)

Tories are pretty boned, period, whenever they launch their last push - the actual threat are Reform, who will either form a coalition with whoever it takes to gain a majority in this election, or outright win next time after the PLP fundamentally change nothing.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Tories are pretty boned, period,

I am old enough to have thought that in the past. The money that backs the Tories will not give up. Given how open the party has been about its extrean right over the last few years.

Honestly until the 5th July it is very dangerous to think that way. All these predictions are based on 65 to 75% turn out. That is high. The Tories do not need to convince folks to vote Tory. They are better off stopping folks voting labour. At least in seats where a 3rd party is not closer to Tory in polling.

If they reduce turn out for labour while increasing support for more left of centre parties. They can do to labour what Corbyn did to may. Create a weak minority party where the existing devisions in the PLP prevent the party achieving much.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

If you've been voting for 30+ years you should have the experience to recognise how close in policy the current PLP are to the Tories. If you're just talking about the last few elections you were naive and deserved to be surprised that the PLP would rather sabotage a left wing candidate than win an election.

The money that backs the Tories is not particularly attached to the Tories, and will move (has already been moving) to the PLP and any other sources of power it can find should the Tories lose. It does not have an ideology beyond constant growth, and is happy to pay members of any party for access.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 6 months ago

I'm 53 so the former. But also experienced enough to have see your argument before. Because I was making them.

I and many my age said exactly the same thing about Tony Blair's leadership of the party. And heck I have been making the argument for the last few years post Corbyn.

But I also have the experience to know how much better life under right wing labour is then even left wing Tories. So 10 days before the election. Fighting to change the options we have is a losing battle. The fight is instead between 5 years of a lesser evil. Or a much much greater one.

Because at the end of it. Right wing labour is not trying to start a war against the poor. Whereas the Conservative Party is very much built from a history of embedded privileged. It literally grew from the lords side of a fight between the house of lords vs the house of commons. I.E. feudalism vs commoners. The power of generational privileged wealth vs democracy. (As limited as it was in those days)

While since 1689 the structure of parliament has changed hugely. That is the historical predecessor to the Tories losing against the Liberals and Labour representing the rights of commons.

And any honest look at the ideology of the 2 main parties is still based on privileged wealth vs the early idea of the middle class. I.E. Earned wealth (although the far left would have issues with earned I agree with). The left wing of the labour party (that both started it and removed the Liberals from opposition. ) Cannot win this election. But we can sure as hell give it to the Tories unintentionally. Very like the right of the party did in 2019 (ill add intentionally here).

What I see very strongly is an attempt by Tories to blame the poor for poverty. As they always do. vs an attempt by Labour to turn what they call the centre. But in the feudal past our parliament grew in was referred to as the middle class. I.E. traders and business men not born into generational wealth.

I hate that FPTP is so shitty. And have seen how shitty since the 1980s. But again 10 days till the election. Its time to bite your anger down and choose the lesser evil. Because the greater evil knows how to use yours and my anger to gain power.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 months ago

I mean fingers crossed both Labour and Tories are

If Lib Dems get opposition it'll hopefully give people the idea they can vote for who they want instead of tactically, so vote share of Reform, Lib Dem, Green and whoever else increases

[–] thr0w4w4y2 6 points 6 months ago

jokes on them I already sent in my postal vote

[–] [email protected] 6 points 6 months ago

Hard agree. They gutted the electoral commission while gerrymandering like crazy. They have an army of right wing boomers brow beating anyone they come across into the ground with their "the two parties are identical in every single way" BS (all claiming to be left wingers while doing so, of course). If labour had been betting on things, using insider knowledge, there would be arrests already. The Met police went to the most secure and videoed place in the country (10 downing street) and lied, telling the whole nation that there was no evidence of the parties they were having during lockdown. Etc etc etc.

The very wealthy people and powerful people they represent won't go quietly, if at all, and they have no morals.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Maybe, or maybe they realise how screwed they are and will just save some of the cash for a future election.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 6 months ago

That is the definition of under estimation. Any theory can be wrong. But when you compare the cost of being prepared. Vs the cost of another 5 years of Tory rule. Its rather daft to ignore the money being there. Especially when you consider previous election manipulations the Tories and their right wing media supporters have managed.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

If you're worried about this, the best way to prevent it is to donate to and volunteer with the Labour party. Yes, there's a few places where voting for a different party is the better anti-Tory tactic if that is your priority, BUT:

  • it's hard to know for sure who the best vote is because the various tactical tools, polls, etc., often don't agree
  • very nearly everywhere Labour is your best bet anyway