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Nigel Farage’s Reform party overtakes Tories for first time in new YouGov poll
(www.independent.co.uk)
Well Farage's plan seems to be working.
this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2024
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UK Politics
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*Putin's plan.
Anyone remember the Lib Dems coming second in polls in 2010?
Where they won 57 seats to the conservatives 306.
Labour got 258
(Just for anyone else that wanted to know.)
Is this going to make much of a difference with FPTP? I doubt it.
Not really, and it's still unlikely Reform will win any seats. Clacton probably being their best shot.
But it's more about the symbolism of the most successful party in British history being relegated to third place in the polls.
Not to be pedantic (ha-ha, just kidding, I love being pedantic) but this is still a statistical tie, rather than a real lead, which would have to be 3 points plus. Additionally, it's only one poll, and it's from YouGov, who have consistently shown lower votes for the Big Two and higher votes for the smaller parties than other polling companies, even before their methodology change, which increased the gap between them and other pollsters in that regard.
What's more, Reform have consistently underperformed the polls in actual elections. Granted, Farage has increased their vote since he decided to stand, but the real elections suggest that he's increased it from a much lower basis than the polls would have us believe.
Take this with a tablespoon of salt, is what I'm saying.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The poll results were released minutes before Mr Farage was due to take part in a 7-way debate on ITV, with Conservative cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt, among others.
The words will spark dread among Tory MPs who are seeing their majorities disappearing as their voters turn their backs on Rishi Sunak and defect to Reform.
Many Tory MPs are terrified Reform will put the final nail in their coffin, not by winning their seat but by taking enough votes to hand it to Labour or the Lib Dems.
Reform also claimed they had made history when they unveiled a Party Election Broadcast that turned TV screens black for nearly five minutes – except for the message: “Britain is broken.
At the weekend he was accused of going into hiding after he was forced to make a grovelling apology for leaving the D-Day commemorations early to take part in a TV interview.
Earlier this week Mr Farage pulled out of a high-profile BBC interview as his Reform party faced a row over whether the UK should have appeased Hitler.
The original article contains 757 words, the summary contains 178 words. Saved 76%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!