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Nigel Farage’s Reform party overtakes Tories for first time in new YouGov poll (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 6 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Nigel Farage’s Reform party has overtaken the Conservatives in a poll for the first time in a national poll.

The Tories were pushed into third in the survey, by pollsters YouGov one point behind Reform on 18 percent to 19 percent

The findings will come as a body blow to Rishi Sunak after a disastrous election campaign and risks triggering panic among many Tory MPs.

As the TV showdown opened he told millions of viewers “we are now the opposition to Labour”.

...

The poll found support for Reform had increased by two points to 19 per cent while the Tories were unchanged on 18 per cent.

At the end of the debate, Mr Farage said to Ms Mordaunt: “A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

...

Many Tories now will be wondering if this was a freak poll or if more with Reform going further in front are set to be unleashed over the last three weeks of the election campaign. If Reform builds up a lead of five or more points it could see the world’s oldest political party go into a meltdown and face a wipeout.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

Not to be pedantic (ha-ha, just kidding, I love being pedantic) but this is still a statistical tie, rather than a real lead, which would have to be 3 points plus. Additionally, it's only one poll, and it's from YouGov, who have consistently shown lower votes for the Big Two and higher votes for the smaller parties than other polling companies, even before their methodology change, which increased the gap between them and other pollsters in that regard.

What's more, Reform have consistently underperformed the polls in actual elections. Granted, Farage has increased their vote since he decided to stand, but the real elections suggest that he's increased it from a much lower basis than the polls would have us believe.

Take this with a tablespoon of salt, is what I'm saying.